Ethan is fresh off an easy 14-0 sweep
to start the bowl season after Saturday’s easy win with Rutgers and Ethan
is on an incredible run going 20-1 over his last 21 football selections! Ethan
is looking to continue his post-season domination with a top selection in the BCS
Championship game! Over the past 6 season the Bowls have been kind to Ethan as
he has gone an unbelievable 92-40 (69.7%) on Bowl selections! Since Joining
the Pregame team last baseball season, Ethan has won
an Astonishing 70 of 88 (79.6%)
weeks, and he is
determined to go UNDEFEATED THIS BOWL SEASON! Take advantage now!OK GUYS EMAIL POURING IN AND A NICE THANK YOU FOR ALL YOUR SUPPORT. REMEMBER PLEASE DO NOT LOSE CONTROL WITH MONEY MANAGEMENT, BECAUSE ODDS SAY SOONER OR LATER I AM GOING TO LOSE ONE OF THESE, SO I JUST DO NOT WANT ANYBODY UNLOADING ON ANY ONE. I SPENT CLOSE TO 15 HOURS ALONE VERIFYING TODAY TWO PLAYS AND I THINK THEY ARE REALLY GOOD ONES.
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SUMMARY OF NCAA BOWL SELECTIONS: (UPDATE #6)
1* RUTGERS -10.5 (WON)
1* KANSAS/TEXAS TECH UNDER 52.5 (WON)
1* TEXAS TECH/VIRGINIA UNDER 59 (PUSH)
1* MISSOURI -3 -$115 (WON)
1* FLORIDA STATE +10 -$120 (WON)
1* AUBURN +3 -$120 (WON)
1* CALIFORNIA -4.5 (WON)
1* NAVY +8 (WON)
1* NAVY/UTAH OVER 65(WON)
1* SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI +11 (WON)
1* EAST CAROLINA +11(WON)
1* TEXAS -2.5(WON)
1* MARYLAND/OREGON ST UNDER 47(WON)
1* PENN STATE -5 (WON)
1/2* MICHIGAN STATE +5 (WON)
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AIR
FORCE (9-3) vs CALIFORNIA (6-6)
This
is the kind of match-up I absolutely love because I really try to go “inside
the head” of the odds maker and the betting public to which they are often
trying to deceive. I wanted to say that because “in the dark” Air Force is the
obvious selection! There is no question about this as the public notices the
results week in and week out and the results show how one team (Air Force) would
be classified as very “hot” going into this match-up, while the other team
would be classified as very cold (California). Indeed, coming into the “Armed
Forces Bowl”, a game that “if perception couldn’t get any more one sided” has a
bowl team that is actually part of the Armed Forces (irony?) has an Air Force team that has won three straight and six of its
last seven games. Overall Air Force is an impressive (9-3 SU & 9-2 ATS) with
an offense averaging an impressive 27 points per game, on 294 yards rushing and
120 passing. On the defensive side of the ball, their “on paper” (we will
discuss more about this below) stats are equally impressive as they are
allowing opposing offensive just over 19 points per game this season. On the
season, Air Force was just 3-3 SU & ATS away from home and lost to BYU
(31-6), Navy (31-20) and New Mexico
(34-31), giving up a whopping 320 passing yards to BYU the only team among
those three with a dangerous passing attack. In stark contrast to Air Forces
impressive 6-1 streak, California
comes into this game on a miserable 1-6 SU & 0-7 ATS run after being No. 2
in the nation earlier in the season. Indeed, the Golden Bear (6-6 SU & 3-9
ATS) came into the season with national championship hopes under head coach
Jeff Tedford as they started the season on a tear going 5-0 with wins against
nationally ranked Tennessee (45-31) Oregon (31-24), and the likes of Colorado
State (34-28), Louisiana Tech (42-12) and Arizona (45-27). On the season their balanced
offense averages 28 points, 149 yards rushing, 217 passing per game behind
junior quarterback Nate Longshore (2,544 yards, 59%, 16 touchdowns, 13 interceptions),
and running back Justin Forsett (1,406 yards, 5 yards per carry, 13 touchdowns).
Longshore was out for the 31-28 loss to Oregon State that started this losing
streak and has not been the same since his return, as he has throw 11
interceptions the last 6 games. California
is also perhaps one of their more shocking losses in the programs recent
history in their last game of the season when they lost 20-13 to rival
Stanford.
Before we get to the crux as to why we are backing the California Golden
Bears on Monday, I do feel compelled to tell you about the absolutely miserable
technical trends we will have to buck in order to get the SU & ATS win.
Unfortunately, California comes into this
contest with some of the worst technical data I have seen in quit some time,
even worse then the trends I saw in the Texas
game that nobody appeared to like. For starters, California is a miserable 1-11 ATS in the
second half of the season over the last 2 years and is a perfectly horrible 0-7
ATS off a loss against a conference rival over the same span. If that couldn’t
get any worse, The Bears are also 0-7 ATS after playing 2 straight conference
games this season and are 2-11 ATS after playing 3 straight conference games
over the last 2 seasons! Even in this situation, the loss to Stanford historically
hurts our chances because California
is 7-20 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite since 1992. our resident trend guru
mark Lawrence chimes in to give us even more terrible information when he tells
us that California 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 against bowl opponents on their
schedule. Meanwhile, Air Force has all of the favorable trends going for them
as the service academies are a stellar 20-5 ATS in bowls as underdogs. Oh boy! So as you can see, not only does Air Force come
into this game as the “better/hotter team” from the publics perspective, any
traditional handicapping ideology would also favor Air force as a selection,
which is why I anticipate them being a
very popular selection among the public and service touts alike.
So I guess the big question is….if everything is pointing to Air Force, why am
I backing California?
To answer that question briefly, I will turn your attention to what I
originally said in the Texas analysis, in a
game which virtually all of my competitors picked Arizona State.
Very selectively have I laid the chalk in the bowl season (only 2 selections
this bowl season) but from a fundamental analysis, we have California domination. Similar to Texas, California
entered this season ranked among the nation's top five teams and their
opponent Air Force was nowhere to be found in the top 25 preseason selections.
Why? Simply put, California
has the better athletes on the field when these teams match-up and they own
unit-on-unit fundamental match-up advantages on BOTH sides of the football. Indeed,
at one point in the season this was also a California
team that ranked No 2 in the NCAA and beat a then ranked Oregon
team that had already beaten the likes of Michigan,
Fresno State,
Houston, USC and Arizona
State all teams who are
bowling and some of arguably the best teams in the nation. They also started
the season with a win over Tennessee who in
turn beat Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky,
Arkansas
again all teams in bowls and all teams on a different level the Air Force. Granted,
Air Force has been impressive with their 6-1 run, but one can hardly lay to
much credibility into wins over UNLV Colorado State, Wyoming,
Army, Notre Dame and San Diego
State teams who were a
combined 20-52 on the season! Although I would not classify the Falcons
schedule as “easy” but when compared to the likes of California, the contrast in strength of schedule
is alarming. As stated above, although the box scores will show that “on paper”
Air Force averaged 29 points per game and 419 yards of total offense and 19
point per game on defense against all opponents this season, those numbers were
significantly different when they match-up up against opponents who are in bowl
games this season (Utah, BYU, TCU, Navy and New Mexico). Indeed,
against those aforementioned “bowl teams” on their schedule they yielded 25
points per game on 351 total yards, while their offense had a dramatic decline
to just 19 points per game (10 less) and 351 yards per game, which is a pretty
shocking difference. The 351 yards per game their defense is giving up, will
probably be the major difference in this match-up. It should also be noted that
Air Force played only one top #20 team this season (BYU) and lost that game by
a whopping 31-6 margin. Now they must try and stop the California offensive juggernaut that has averaged
28 points per game this season and one that has averaged 399 yards of total
offense. Interestingly, California
was actually able to move the ball better against the better teams on their
schedule as they did against the weaker teams, something that cannot be said
for Air Force. On the season California
averaged 399 yards of total offense and 28 points per game on 5.2 yards per
play overall, and a nearly identical 27 points, 401 yards, and 5.1 yards per
play against bowl foes. Again it cannot be stressed that those were against
some of the best defenses in the nation in USC, Oregon
and Tennessee.
From a motivational standpoint, this game is a little harder to read as this is
the first time Air Force has been to a bowl since 2002, while perception is
that California is disappointed to be in this bowl contest. However, with such
a monumental collapse to close the season California needs a win here for recruiting
and needs to get their fans looking forward to next season. A large part of their
collapse at the end of this season was due to some injuries, but the layoff
will help get their players healthy and they can refocus their efforts. As
expected, the public has been backing the underdog Air Force at a 52% clip and
the line has moved against the flow of the money and has moved to 4.5. The
public backing an “underdog” in this spot is not surprising because California does come
into this as (without question) the coldest team in the nation. However, as you
will recall California
ended last season in a similar fashion going 0-5 ATS until going out and
absolutely destroying Texas A&M 45-10. Of note, three years ago when the
Bears traveled to Air Force, they put up 56 points and 573 yards and a similar result
wouldn’t surprise me here as the Falcons will be overmatched against this
speedy and athletic California team. Air Force will get some yards on the
ground, but California’s
air attack should do well against a slow Falcon secondary and can name their
score “if they want to”. If all else fails take solace in the fact that California is an
impressive 14-3 ATS as chalk of 3.5-10 points under Jeff Tedford,
winning by an average of 24.4 points per game! Lay it!
Verdict: California 34,
Air Force 17
PLAY 1* UNIT ON CALIFORNIA -4.5
MICHIGAN ST (7-5) vs BOSTON COLLEGE (10-3)
The
Champs Sports Bowl matches up two 1st year head coaches in what looks
to me to be 1 of the most evenly matched bowl games. Boston College (10-3 SU & 6-6 ATS) is led by
Jeff Jagodzinski, who will be hard pressed to match his predecessors bowl game
success. The Eagles have, in fact, won their last 7 bowl appearances going 6-1
ATS in the process. Unlike
their opponent, mush of the Eagles success this seaon can be attributed to their
defense, which was one of the best in the country at stopping the run (allowing
a meager 68 yards rushing per game and just 2.2 yards per carry) but be advised
their secondary has been one of the worst in the country allowing 263 passing
yards per contest. The offense is solid, but nowhere near as dangerous as MSUs
(discussed below) as they averaged 28 points per game, 106 rushing and 329 yards
passing, led by senior quarterback Matt Ryan (28 touchdowns, 18 interception).
Complimenting Ryan are senior running backs Andre Callender (956 yards) and L.V.
Whitworth. Meanwhile, some critics
believe that Michigan State (7-5 SU & 7-4-1 ATS) is lucky to get into this
bowl game as they needed to win their final two games, 48-31 over Purdue
and 35-31 over Penn State, just to get here. They are managed by Mark Dantonio, who led the Spartans to their
first post-season action since 2003. Despite that fact, MSU still comes into
this game with some credentials as their dangerous and balanced offense is lead
by Junior quarterback Brian Hoyer (18 touchdowns, 7 interceptions) that
averaged a whopping 34 points per game this season on 200 yards rushing and 235
passing. Other key contributors are wide receiver Devin Thomas (1,226 yards),
and running backs J.R. Ringer (1,346 yards, 6.0 yards per carry) and Jehuu
Caulcrick (813 yards, 21 touchdowns). However, like most other Big 10 teams,
their defense was a problem all season as they gave up 32 points and 241 yards
passing per game in Big 10 play. Of particular concern, is the fact that 4 of
their opponents this season rushed for over 200 yards.
Similar to
yesterdays analysis on the Arizona
State, Boston College spent much of the early portion of the
season in the headlines as a result of winning their 1st eight games.
The 8-0 start was the first for B.C. since 1942, and they went on to win their
division in the, going to the ACC championship game for the first time. They
also beat Miami Florida. for the first time since 1984, when
Doug Fluties historic hail-mary shocked the world. Quarterback Matt Ryan won ACC
player of the year honors and also the Unitas award. As you can see, they
accomplished much this season, both individually and as a team. There-in lies
the problem for them in this game. Despite all the successes and headlines, they
got stuck playing in this less than prestigious bowl game. Had they beaten
Virginia Tech in their conference championship game, they would likely be
playing in the Orange Bowl. The disappointment of not landing a major bowl bid
cannot be understated. Michigan
St, on the other hand, has not made a bowl appearance
during the duration of their current seniors careers. Every one of the
Michigan
St players is excited just to be playing in
ANY bowl game at all! This presents to us a monumental motivational and
emotional edge in this game. One team seasons highlights happened during the
regular season, the others highlight of the season is happening today! We should
also quickly analyze some of the above criticism that MSU was lucky to be in
this bowl game as they needed two late season wins just to get here. Note that
the Spartans
played very well against some of the best teams in the country this season as
they lost two overtime games along with a three-point heartbreaker at Wisconsin,
a seven-point battle with Ohio State, and a four-point just missed game to
Michigan (all teams arguably better the Boston College). In
their last loss of the season to Michigan, they actually out-gained the
Wolverines 352-311 and led that game 24-14 in the 4th quarter. Two
scores by Michigan in the last 7 minutes of the game
ended their hopes for an upset that day. The week before that they went to
Iowa and led
17-3 at the half, only to lose in overtime.
Indeed, all five of their losses this season were by seven points or fewer, and
with the strong way the season ended, a win over Boston College would do wonders
for the off-season and would set a good tone for next
season.
Lets
take a look at some of the fundamental advantages we can expect to have in this
game. Boston
College is led by much
ballyhooed quarterback Matt Ryan, who in my opinion is the most overrated player
in college football. While often drawing comparisons to the legendary Doug
Flutie, his numbers this season were less than spectacular. How many people
would have guessed he ranked 58th nationally in passer efficiency
rating? Indeed, his Spartan counterpoint in this game, Brian Hoyer finished
ranked 28th! Here is a another stat I find very revealing. Among the
nations top 40 passers (most pass attempts) only 12 had a WORSE yards per
attempt ratio than Matt Ryan. Brian Hoyer himself averages more than a half yard
per attempt more! The yards per attempt is the most revealing number when
determining how explosive a passing offense is. Defensively, Boston College has an obvious edge with their
front 7 as they do come into this contest with the nations No 1 ranked rushing
defense. However, that stat is a bit deceiving as when the season progressed,
teams stopped even trying to run the ball, and with good reason. Something
interesting to note, early in the season, when teams tried to rush the football,
the
Eagle defense came up with 18 interceptions in the first seven games. However,
in their final six games, when other teams got the blueprint on how to beat this
team after their first loss to Florida State, they came up with only three
interceptions in the in the final six games! In their first loss of the season,
Florida State's Drew Weatherford completed 30 of 46 passes for
371 yards and two touchdowns, followed by Maryland's (ranked 78th in the
nation in passing offense) Chris Turner completed 21 of 27 passes for 337 yards
and three scores. Moreover, Virginia Tech's quarterbacks (ranked 86th
in the nation in passing) in the ACC title game completed 21 of 33 passes for
202 yards and three touchdowns. Moreover, Bowling
Green
also torched them 401 yards through the air! This all equates to Boston College having a pass defense ranked
110th out of 120 teams in passing yards allowed! In fact, the only
teams that did not pass for over 300 yards against the Eagles porous secondary,
were teams who were among the worst in the nation at passing the football.
With Boston Colleges absolutely abysmal passing
numbers, it appears that all that MSU quarterback Brian Hoyer needs to do is
stay away from making poor decisions. However, his above referenced 18 to 7
TD/interception ratio indicates to me that we need not worry too much about
that. Although Boston College has a very stout run stop unit,
Michigan St may find success on the ground where others have failed. The
Spartans had 27 rushing touchdowns this season, a testament to their superior
offensive line play. They also comes into this contest with the nations
22nd ranked rushing offense one that is average over 200 yards per
game. Contrast that with Boston 105th ranked rushing offense
(averaging just over 100 yards rushing per game) and we have a team, who is an
underdog that has a better rushing attack by more then 100 yards! Look for MSU
to do something on offense that most other clubs have been afraid of doing and
that rushing the football with some success on Friday. Indeed, the
Spartans are one of only nine teams in the country to average at least 200 yards
a game rushing and receiving, so this is a dangerous balance that B.C. has not
seen all season. Moreover, Michigan
State has been held under 142 yards
just once and that was against an
Ohio
State who also ranks in the
top 5 against stopping the run. Although MSUs running back
Jehuu Caulcrick got most of the short yardage plays, Javon Ringer is one of the
most exciting explosive backs in the nation. He finished 18th in the
country with 1,346 rushing yards and gained a gaudy 6.0 yards per carry. Indeed,
Ringer was one of only 6 backs in the country with over 200 carries and such a
lofty yards per carry average. There is not a question in my mind that this is
the best running back they have faced all season, and their #1 ranked rush
defense will be put to a test. Many in the country know little about Ringer, but
they will know about him after this contest is said and done.
The line
on this game opened at a very low and fishy 3.5 points. I say low and fishy
because perception is that Boston College is the far superior team and I was
actually expecting a line around 6 for this game. The early betting proved my
assumption correct as this was the bowl game receiving the most action, not only
that, but it was also very one-sided. The first 2 weeks the lines were out over
70% of the wagers taken were on Boston College, yet the line remained steady at
3.5 until some recent movement on Thursday has pushed this game to 5 at most
shops. This tells me the books are comfortable taking more B.C. money, and also
that there are some very large wagers on Michigan St. My own syndicate, in fact,
made a small wager of $15,000 on this game. While that may not seem like a small
wager, it is the smallest we as a group make and it is just the second selection
we have played this bowl season. OK, in summary, we have BY FAR the
more motivated team playing their 1st bowl game in 4 years
playing against a team who rose as high as #2 in the polls till losing 3 of
their last 5 games (going 1-4 ATS in those 5). We are going against an overrated
highly publicized Heisman Trophy candidate, who is actually not nearly as good
as everybody thinks. Whereas the public perceives the Eagles as the far superior
team, Michigan
St is, in fact, the better team!
UPDATE: I took some significant time to analyze the recent
suspension news coming out of the MSU camp and the potential impact it might
have in this contest. As you know by
now, four (4) Michigan
State players have been ruled
academically ineligible for Friday's Champ Sports Bowl vs. Boston College. Red-shirt freshman guard Abre
Leggins, senior defensive end Jonal Saint-Dic, senior wide receiver Terry Love,
and sophomore wide receiver T.J. Williams will all sit out the contest. Of all
of these suspensions, the only one of any significant impact (in my opinion) is
Jonal Saint-Dic. Nevertheless, the MSU defensive front is
still fantastic at getting into the backfield (without the aforementioned
Saint-Dic) and it really doesnt matter because but BC led the ACC in sacks
allowed. Although its not enough to take
us off this selection altogether the fact that Michigan State's
run-defense had trouble stopping the run in the second half of the season (their
past five opponents have averaged 178.0 yards per game and rushed for 10 TDs)
does give us some cause for concern.
Verdict:
Michigan St 31 Boston College 27
PLAY
1/2* UNIT MICHIGAN STATE +5