Home-court calls part of the advantage

By Matty O'Shea
Pregame.com GM of Content
Friday, April 28th, 2006

Did you actually think the Chicago Bulls would beat the Miami Heat by nearly 20 points in Game 3 of their first-round playoff series on Thursday night? I sure didn't, especially after watching Miami center Shaquille O'Neal dominate the paint in the first two games. But take Shaq out of "his" game - which involves bullying opponents both offensively and defensively - and the Heat are nowhere near NBA championship contenders.

Officiating plays such a major role in the eventual outcome of a playoff series, and reading how referees will call individual games is critical to your betting success. For example, Indiana Pacers star Jermaine O'Neal and teammate Stephen Jackson were both called for two first-quarter fouls in Game 2 of their series against the New Jersey Nets. The result was limited production from each player due to foul trouble and a 90-75 New Jersey home win. O'Neal criticized the officiating and drew a $15,000 fine on Thursday before getting the benefit of home-court calls himself when the Pacers returned to Indianapolis for Game 3. He went on to score a game-high 37 points, going 13-of-14 from the charity stripe in a 107-95 Indiana victory.

In all, the three home teams on Thursday combined to average nearly 45 trips to the free-throw line, making an average of 33 shots. Their opponents averaged 12 less trips to the line, scoring eight less points. The Denver Nuggets beat the Los Angeles Clippers 94-87, so you can see how those extra trips to the line directly translated to a series-saving victory. Had Denver lost that game, the team would be facing a 3-0 deficit going into Game 4 at home.

The significance there obviously lies in the fact that the Nuggets and Bulls were both down 2-0 in their respective series while the Pacers simply fell victim to bad calls in Game 2 on the road and saw more calls go their way at home in Game 3. Losing at home can be very devastating and haunt teams for an entire series. None of the aforementioned home teams need to worry about that - yet. However, Chicago and Denver must hold serve and win Game 4 or else they still face the prospect of losing on the road in Game 5.

Change of venue is the most common factor in shifting calls from one team to another, like in Chicago's case. The Bulls had no answer for Shaq in Miami, but when the series moved back to Chicago, the referees didn't seem to let him get away with much. He ended up with eight points and seven turnovers in just 24 minutes after averaging 24.5 points and 11.5 rebounds in the first two games.

Look for the officiating in Game 4 to be more balanced, but as long as it doesn't tip back in the Heat's favor, the Bulls should have the edge since they were so close to winning each of the first two games despite being at a major disadvantage. In general, Game 4 is the most evenly-called by the referees and can end up being the turning point in a series.

Regardless, don't underestimate the value of home court when handicapping during the NBA playoffs. Home-court advantage revolves around the benefits of strong fan support and favorable calls, which is the nature of the game and why teams fight for it all season long.

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