First-Round NBA Playoff Betting Factors

By Matty O'Shea
Pregame.com GM of Content
Friday, April 21st, 2006

Is Cleveland's LeBron James really the next Michael Jordan?  Or will that be Denver's Carmelo Anthony, who has already hit five game-winning shots in the final seconds this season?  Will we see a rematch of last year's NBA Finals between the Detroit Pistons and San Antonio Spurs?  The NBA Playoffs have finally arrived, and there are five key betting factors to consider before the first round tips off on Saturday...

First-timers in the first round: The Los Angeles Clippers have not been in the playoffs since 1996-97 while the Cleveland Cavaliers are appearing in the postseason for the first time since 1997-98.  How MVP candidate James and Clippers star Elton Brand perform in the playoffs remains to be seen, but we've obviously seen over the years that certain players (like Jordan) have the ability to raise their games. 

Youth is served, inexperience exists: New blood in the playoffs doesn't guarantee instant success.  Jordan struggled against Larry Bird's Boston Celtics teams in his first couple playoff experiences, going out in the first round both times before advancing to the second round the next year and hitting his signature buzzer-beater against Cleveland in 1989 that propelled the Chicago Bulls to the Eastern Conference Finals.  Several young rising stars are trying to make names for themselves, but it's the veteran teams like Detroit and San Antonio that have the best chance to advance deep into the postseason.

Team chemistry essential to balance talent: The Miami Heat overhauled their roster in the offseason with the largest trade in NBA history, bringing in point guard Jason Williams and forwards James Posey and Antoine Walker.  They also signed veteran Gary Payton in hopes of taking some ball-handling pressure off Dwyane Wade.  Whether or not those moves will pay off will depend on the team's ability to come together in the playoffs, something the players had a hard time doing during the regular season, especially on the defensive end.  Miami faces a young Bulls squad whose team chemistry may be stronger than any team in the league except for Detroit.  However, Chicago doesn't have one All-Star, a no-brainer needed to make a playoff run.  The Pistons, Spurs, New Jersey Nets and Phoenix Suns all have an excellent combination of talent and chemistry and should go far because of it.

Playoff format key to keeping players healthy: More than any other team, the Spurs are happy there are no back-to-back games in the playoffs.  San Antonio had injury concerns throughout the regular season and still managed to set a franchise record for wins.  The health of Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili is critical for the Spurs to defend their championship.  Closing out opponents as early as possible will also be important in order to give them extra rest before the next round begins.  Sure, the playoffs seem to go on forever, but they are designed that way to keep the best players playing as long as possible and increase TV ratings.

Winning on the road is as important as home court: Only five teams in the NBA had a winning road record this season, and it's no coincidence that those teams just happen to be the five favorites to take home the title.  The Pistons made a strong push for home-court advantage early on and held off the Spurs by one game.  Many experts believe that will be the difference this year, just like it was last year when San Antonio beat Detroit in seven games.  But the Spurs do own the best road record in there NBA at 29-12, and the ability to "steal games" on the opposition's home court is often the ultimate deciding factor in a series.

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