NCAA Bracket Picking Rules - College Basketball Tips for Picking the NCAA Tournament Winner

11 Bracket Picking Rules You Shouldn’t Break!

By RJ Bell – Pregame.com
rj@pregame.com | 1-800-PREGAME

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all stats span from 1985 (the year the tournament expanded to 64 teams) to present.

1st Round:

Be very selective picking any team below a #12 seed. #16 seeds are 0 for 88. #15 seeds are 4 for 88. #13 and #14 seeds are less than 19% combined.
Don’t be shy about picking upsets when #12 through #9 seeds are involved Look especially hard at picking #12 seeds; they have won 11 of 24 matchups vs. #5 seeds the last six years. #9 seeds have a winning record vs. #8 seeds.

2nd Round:

Advance #1 seeds almost automatically – they win their first two games 86% of the time.
Keep advancing the #12 and #10 seeds you picked to win in Round One. They win almost half the time in Round Two (14 of 29 for #12 seeds; 17 of 35 for #10 seeds).
Rarely pick a #13 seed or lower to win in Round Two. Only 9% of teams advancing past Round Two are seeded that low.

Sweet 16:

Advance exactly three #1 seeds into the Elite 8. No reason to buck the math: 70% of #1 seeds advance into the 4th round (that’s a higher percentage than #5 seeds who win a single game)!
Advance no team lower than a #12 seed into the Elite 8. NOT ONE has ever advanced!

Elite Eight:

Advance ONE or TWO #1 seeds to the Final Four. Amazingly, exactly one or two #1 seeds have made the Final Four 18 of the last 22 years.
Advance no team lower than a #8 seed to the Final Four. Only 2 of 88 Final Four teams have been seeded lower than #8.

Final Four: