So much for my
perfect ending to the 2008 NBA Finals.
David Stern obviously wasn't listening to me, so it looks like the
conspiracy theory lives heading back to Boston for Game 6. Sure, the
Los Angeles Lakers have a lot of work to do yet in order to become the
first team ever to rally back from a 3-1 deficit to win the NBA
Finals. But history says they have at least a decent shot of forcing a
Game 7.
Home teams leading 3-2
are just 14-11 (56%) in Game 6 but 23-2 (92%) in the final series
result. That means in the 11 instances in which the home teams lost
Game 6, they went on to go 9-2 in Game 7.
There also has been at least one Game 7 in the NBA Finals in every decade since the 1940s:
1 went to Game 7 in the 2000s (2005)
1 went to Game 7 in the 1990s (1994)
2 went to Game 7 in the 1980s (1984 and 1988)
3 went to Game 7 in the 1970s (1970, 1974 and 1978)
4 went to Game 7 in the 1960s (1960, 1962, 1966 and 1969)
5 went to Game 7 in the 1950s (1951, 1952, 1954, 1955 and 1957)
16 out of 62 NBA Finals series have gone to a Game 7 (26%)
Lakers & Celtics have gone to a Game 7 four times (1962, 1966, 1969 and 1984)
Now for my shocking Game 6 pick...
511 LAL (+170) SportBet vs 512 BOS Analysis: Yes,
the Los Angeles Lakers are 0-7 ATS in the last seven meetings with the
Boston Celtics, including 0-5 during the NBA Finals. But they lost
three straight road games just twice during the regular season and were
4-2-1 ATS in their previous seven playoff games away from home before
this series. Whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, you
know LA has not played its best game yet. The Lakers were far from
perfect in winning two of the last three games, yet they still managed
to pull within 3-2 heading back to Boston. They remain one of the best
road teams in the NBA and are certainly capable of winning one here
despite how poorly they played in the first two games. With
most of the betting public piling on the Celtics
to close this one out in Game 6 upon their return home, I will take
advantage of the value on the Lakers and bet them to win straight-up as
my Double Dime NBA Finals Play O' the Week.