By Marc Lawrence
Pregame Pros Handicapper
First off, let me say Im not a strong advocate of play NFL Win Total Futures. For one, your money is tied up from the time you make your play until the season is over. Second, the future play you make can often times critically influence other handicaps you make either on or against that same team down the road in the regular season, especially late in the year, if you let it.
That being said, there is generally one or two situational or statistical based future plays that surface each season that combine both value and solid handicapping logic. On the NFL front this season there is one such play that warrant such a play. Lets take a look
CINCINNATI BENGALS OVER 7.5 +120
Nobody likes laying the juice when it comes to making a bet. It's always nice when you're on the plus side of a wagering proposition. It's even better when you cash that proposition.
Taking +120 on this NFL pick means the majority of players, in addition to the linemaker, feel the 'other side' of the wager is the right side. When you disprove that thought you not only put yourself on the 'right side' of the play but also the 'value side' as well.
Last year the Bengals were the only team in the NFL to finish the season with improved stats on both sides of the ball, yet declined both SU and ATS. Teams in this situation almost always improve their win production the following year.
Cincinnati was 2-6 at the midway point of the season in 2007, yet refused to fold when they won five of their eight remaining contests - only to end the year at 7-9. Should they not fall into the same early hole this year as last, they close out the 2nd half of the campaign against foes that combined to go just 65-64 overall last year.
With Marvin Lewis on the hot seat, look for this underachieving but talented bunch to eclipse last year's production en route to a playoff effort in 2008.
There you have it. My take on what I perceive to be a solid NFL Win Total play for the 2008 season ahead. Good luck.