Tommy Rider (see all posts from)

Week 1 NFL Lines: Give Me Your Early Predictions

by Tommy Rider on 05/08/2008 10:20 AM

You have to love the Internet. It's May and you can already bet games for the NFL's opening week. Here are the games with my thoughts on each matchup:

Redskins at Giants (-3) 41
The defending champs open up on Thursday night at home against division rival Washington. This has been a good moneymaking spot for the team coming off a Super Bowl win. With a new coach and low number, people will be pounding the G-Men and it's probably a good move.
Rider's Pick: Lean Giants (-3)

Bengals at Ravens (P) 42
I've been in the Bengals locker room many times and I can tell you firsthand that the players don't respect Marvin Lewis. Because of that, I don't see a Bengals improving much this season. More than likely, they will struggle once again and Lewis will be gone. However, I wouldn't bet the Ravens with your money.
Rider's Pick: No Play

Jets (-3) at Dolphins 35 1/2
I love the Jets if Pennington is the quarterback. I think their defense will be much improved with budding stars Darrelle Revis and Davis Harris, along with rookie pass rusher Vernon Gholston. The Dolphins still have problems along their offensive line and at quarterback, so I expect the Jets front seven to dominate this game.
Rider's Pick: Jets -3

Chiefs at Patriots (-14.5) 48
This game pits what many believe is the NFL's best team against its worst team. The Patriots should cruise but I'm not laying more than two touchdowns in Week 1. However, I do like the under. How will the Chiefs score? I see this being a 31-6 kind of game, so 48 is too high in my opinion.
Rider's Pick: Lean Under 48

Texans at Steelers (-7) 43
I don't really have a strong opinion on this one yet but my gut tells me that seven points is too much. I have to see what Houston does at QB but I can see them being a strong playoff contender in 2008.
Rider's Pick: No Play

Jaguars (-3) at Titans 37
I imagine everyone will be riding the Jags in this game but I still don't trust them as a road chalk. Tennessee has one of my favorite defensive units in the NFL. They play balls to the wall and I expect this to be a low scoring, hard-hitting defensive struggle.
Rider's Pick: Lean Under 37

Lions (-1) at Falcons 43 1/2
I have no opinion on this game right now. I think the Lions will probably win but betting them on the road is far from a sure thing.
Rider's Pick: No Play

Seahawks at Bills (-1) 39
The Bills are my top play for Week 1 right now. I think Buffalo is a team on the rise, while Seattle is on it's way down. Plus, I love taking AFC teams at home with a low line against NFC teams. The Bills had a ton of injuries last year and I think they are going to surprise a lot of people in 2008. James Hardy has 7 catches for 114 yards and two scores, as Buffalo gets the win at home.
Rider's Pick: Bills -1

Bucs at Saints (-3.5) 43
I don't have a good read on the Bucs yet but I don't see them scoring a lot of points this season. I think the total should be closer to 40 here and will probably drop. Right now, I like the under 43 in a divisional game between two teams familiar with each other.
Rider's Pick: Under 43

Rams at Eagles (-7) 45
I don't think the Rams are going to be nearly as bad as they were last season. With a healthy Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson, this team can still put points on the board and their defense can't possibly get any worse. The Eagles should rebound from an average 2007 season but seven points in the opener seems a little high to me.
Rider's Pick: Lean Rams +7

Cowboys (-3) at Browns 48
I like the Browns and the under. I'm fading Dallas early in the year, especially on the road against a solid AFC team. I believe the Browns will build on last year's success and win the AFC North. That journey starts with an upset over the Cowboys, who the public will pound in this game.
Rider's Pick: Browns -3, Under 48

Panthers at Chargers (-10) 43
No way am I laying 10 points with SD in Week 1. I think this will be a low scoring game, so 10 points may be too good to pass up with the Panthers.
Rider's Pick: Lean Panther +10

Cardinals (-3) at 49ers 41
Too many other games on the board better than this one. No interest from me at this point.
Rider's Pick: No Play

Bears at Colts (-9) 44
The public will be all over the Colts and so will I. I'm sorry Matty but until the Bears prove otherwise, they look like garbage to me. This is a terrible opening matchup for a team with no offense. The Colts roll at home in their new stadium.
Rider's Pick: Colts -9

Vikings at Packers (-3) 38
I don't really have an opinion on this one yet. I don't have a good feel for the Packers right now but my gut tells me they will be better without Favre than people think.
Rider's Pick: No Play

Broncos (-1) at Raiders 38
This is a tough one because I think a couple of months down the road, the Raiders may be the better team here. However, with a bunch a new guys being added to a young nucleus, it may take time for Oakland to gel. I need to do more research on this game but right now, I would lean slightly toward a close Broncos win.
Rider's Pick: Lean Broncos -1

Here is my unofficial early card for Week 1:

Bills -1
Colts -9
Jets -3
Browns +3
Browns/Cowboys under 48
Bucs/Saints under 43

Tell me your early leans for Week 1. It's never too soon to talk football. We're only three months away from kickoff.

Click here to place your Week 1 wagers

read more: Handicapping, NFL, Week 1 Odds

19 Comments:

	posted by RJ_Bell on 05/08/2008 3:37 PM Fade the Giants!
	posted by Tommy Rider on 05/08/2008 3:48 PM I imagine that line will be about 4.5 by gametime RJ.
	posted by deliveryman3 on 05/08/2008 4:24 PM like Panthers and Colts at first glance......like u said Chi is junk....Panthers added 2 decent WR to take some heat off Smith and drafted top RB....if Jake is healthy they shud stay within nbr, plus they are solid when getting points, especially this many
	posted by Tommy Rider on 05/08/2008 4:50 PM I agree Deliveryman, 10 points is a lot in that game. I will definitely be keeping an eye on that one.
	posted by Chuck O'Luck on 05/09/2008 9:58 AM I'm sticking with the 10* COLTS -9 over the Bears. IMO this game gets UGLY. 34 -13 Indy!
	posted by Sweat Hog on 05/09/2008 10:16 AM always take the Super Bowl winner, and fade the Super Bowl loser, check the history it's insane. Take Giants and Chiefs
	posted by Johnny Detroit on 05/09/2008 10:48 AM Lyrics to Gridiron Heroes The Victory Song of the Detroit Lions (Verse) Hail the colors Blue and Silver let them wave. Sing their song and cheer the Gridiron Heroes brave, Fighting for fame, winning the game, Dashing to victory as they go. (Chorus) Forward down the field, A charging team that will not yield. And when the Blue and Silver wave, Stand and cheer the brave. Rah, Rah, Rah. Go hard, win the game. With honor you will keep your fame. Down the field and gain, A Lion victory! GO LIONS
	posted by txgolfer on 05/09/2008 11:44 AM Top plays Bills -1 and Deniver -1. I agree, Buffalo is on the rise, whereas Seattle is freefalling. And if that's an early east coast game for Seattle traveling cross-country, oh yeah, FREE DOLLA DOLLA BILLS baby! Denver was awful last year with expectations so high, they were doomed to fall short, and very short they were, I expect many will remember last year and they will be back in the mix of things. Green Bay will be an easy go-against team this year, they played an easy schedule an overachieved greatly when nothing was expected of them last year, almost pulling off the miracle swan song for Favre.......they won't sneak up on anybody this year and that includes Minnesota in Week 1. SU victory for Purple People Eaters. Jared Allen will make Aaron Rogers wish Favre was still starting.
	posted by Tommy Rider on 05/09/2008 12:21 PM Thanks for the great feedback guys. I can't wait for the season to kick off.
	posted by deliveryman3 on 05/11/2008 5:25 PM can't wait either.....already counting days til my fantasy draft
	posted by mrfreeze on 05/11/2008 7:03 PM I'd probably take the UNDER in the Bengals/Ravens game. Chris Henry is gone, Chad Johnson will probably be gone or will have held out of training camp and may not be game-ready, so Cincy's offense might struggle. Willis McGahee IS Baltimore's offense, and I don't think he can do it on his own. The Bengals porous defense doesn't mean much if the opponent doesn't have a solid QB and receivers. Johnny- I'm surprised anyone remembers the words to the Lions Victory song... When was the last time you guys got to use it?
	posted by Tommy Rider on 05/11/2008 7:15 PM Good Call Mr. Freeze. Forty-two seems too high for that game, especially in Week 1.
	posted by Hellerud on 05/11/2008 7:33 PM JAGS OVER TITANS.....
	posted by respectrayallen34 on 05/11/2008 11:32 PM I like the Denver Broncos -1 as well as the St. Louis Rams +7. That is too many points for a Rams team that is pretty talanted. Throw out last season, it was done within the first month after all those injuries to the offensive line.
	posted by Chuck O'Luck on 06/21/2008 8:55 AM Bump!
	posted by GoodFella on 06/23/2008 9:50 AM Top Play for me Week #1: Eagles -7
	posted by Tommy Rider on 06/24/2008 8:35 AM I'm liking Philly more and more myself. Especially in a couple of teasers at -1. Maybe a nice teaser of Philly -1 and Detroit +5. Something along those lines I think would be a solid play.
	posted by GoodFella on 06/24/2008 10:26 AM I agree T-rider, eagles teased to 1 other TOP play will be in effect 4 me in week #1...
	posted by GoodFella on 06/24/2008 10:53 AM My top 3 are these: Eagles Bills Cowboys In that order......