Bears Season Win Total Under 8 (-115)
Rider's 2008 Projected Record: 4-12
Are you kidding me with this? So, let me understand, the Bears need to win nine games for us to lose? No way. This is one of the strongest plays Ive had in my 20+ years of gambling.
When I did my breakdown of all 32 teams, the Bears got the worst rating from last years team to this one. I projected a three game decline, which would make them 4-12 this season. That would be a five game difference from my projection to the win total they need to reach for us to lose this wager. This is my fourth year doing these and in the last three (96 projections) Ive NEVER been off by five games.
There are a lot of reasons why I dont think Chicago will reach eight wins this season, but Ill touch on just a couple of the main points here.
--The Bears quarterback situation is one of the weakest in the NFL. First let me state that in my opinion, Kyle Orton cant play quarterback in the NFL. So if thats the option the Bears are forced to turn to, so be it. We win the bet. As for Rex Grossman, I thought he was criticized too much during the Bears Super Bowl year but its apparent he took a major step back last season. Why? Because hes mentally weak. Grossman has the physical skills to play in the NFL but his problem is between the ears.
During the draft, I was doing a story on young quarterbacks in the NFL and the pressure they face to succeed right away. One high-profiled NFL personnel man told me something I found to be interesting.
What a lot of people dont realize is that there is a very fine line between success and failure for a lot of young quarterbacks. Some guys like John Elway and Dan Marino are just supremely talented but those kinds of players are few and far between. Take what happened two years ago in the playoffs. Tony Romo and Rex Grossman both had terrible situations they had to rebound from. One (Romo) overcame it, while the other (Grossman) regressed. I know the Bears feel that he deserves another chance to start but I was really surprised they didnt bring in a veteran to compete for the job. Right now they are hanging by a thread at the quarterback position because if Grossman cant get the job done, they have no where to turn.
In my opinion, this is a problem I dont think Chicago will be able to overcome in 2008.
--The Bears have no gamebreakers on offense. As bleak as the Bears quarterback situation looks, the rest of their offense doesnt offer much hope either. If anyone thinks Lovie Smith is going to replace Cedric Benson before the season starts, just look how long he has stuck by Grossman. Its not going to happen. Can you name the Bears starting wide receivers? Want a laugh? The starting receivers in Chicago arewait for itMarty Booker and Brandon Lloyd. In other words, two guys who cant separate from average NFL cornerbacks. I like rookie Earl Bennett but how much can we expect a first-year receiver playing with a bad quarterback to contribute? Bernard Berrian and Mushin Muhammad may not have been All-Pro receivers but they did combine for 111 receptions, 1,521 yards and eight touchdowns. Overall, the Bears graded out as the worst team in the NFL at receiver according to my point system. Chicagos third receiver is Mark Bradley, who has 38 career receptions in 32 games. Enough said.
--The Bears have no depth. In a previous discussion, Matty pointed out that the Bears had a lot of injuries last season and thats true. I do take that into consideration. However, because the Bears have drafted so poorly in recent years, they have very little depth behind the starters. Take a look at their depth chart on the defensive side of the ball. Their starting group is solid but most of the backups would have trouble making other NFL teams. Thats a product of poor drafting. So, if Chicago has a couple of injuries on the defensive side of the ball, their level of play will drop dramatically, just like it did in 2007.
--The Bears have a tough schedule. Im not a guy that goes through the schedule and says, The Bears will win this game and theyll lose this game. I think thats a waste of time. No one knows what will happen on any given Sunday. But the reason I say the Bears have a tough schedule is because the division they have to play from the AFC is the AFC South, hands-down the toughest division in football. Indy and Jacksonville are among the AFC Elite, Tennessee is a playoff team from a year ago and Houston continues to improve. Drawing that division isnt going to do the Bears any favors. Take a look at the Bears schedule following their bye week (Titans, Packers, Rams, Vikings, Jags, Saints, Packers, Texans). Thats a tall order for any team. If Chicago is having quarterback issues early in the year, they will be in a whole lot trouble by the time they get to this murderous stretch.
And finally, I just dont like the vibe coming from this Bears team. Benson got arrested, Brian Urlacher wants more money and they are entering the season with a quarterback I dont think the players respects. I always say, if we know a guy sucks, dont you think his teammates know that as well? These guys arent idiots. Just think, how much more excitement would be surrounding the Bears if they had Donovan McNabb instead of Grossman. Think of it as Eric Gagne Syndrome. After a couple of interceptions by Grossman early in the year take a look at the faces on the rest of the players.
So, there you have it. I think a lot of things will need to go right in Chicago for them to reach eight or nine wins. Some will argue that they play in a terrible division. True. But according to my ratings system, they are the worst team in that division. Top to bottom, I dont think the Bears are even close to the Packers and Vikings. Do you think the third or fourth place team in the NFLs weakest division is going to win nine games? I dont. I could go on forever with even more points but this should be enough information for you all to make your own decision. I dont expect Matty to jump on board but like I said, if you are going to follow one play of mine this season, I would advise this be the one. Good luck.
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