The last time we focused on the NFL but we'll now shift gears to some of the things I look at early in the year when it comes to college football.
OSU's Todd Boeckman could be the difference when the Buckeyes travel to take on USC early in the season.
1. Beware of inexperienced offensive lines. This is probably one of the best tips I can give you in any sport. Let me tell you a story. A few years ago, Dave Ragone returned to Louisville for his senior season. The Cardinals were loaded with talent at the skill positions and were expected to have a high-flying offense. One problem. Louisville was replacing all five offensive linemen with players that had little to no experience. I overlooked this and layed something like 18 points against Kentucky in the season opener. It wasn't even close. Ragone was sacked nine times and had about two seconds to throw the ball every time he dropped back to pass. Kentucky won the game outright and I vowed to never let that happen to me again. It was so frustrating knowing I had to cover close to three touchdowns and my team could barely get the snap off before the opposing defense was in the backfield. So now I closely follow teams replacing three or more linemen in the spring to see how they are making out.
Now, it's important that the new starters are inexperienced. USC is replacing three starting linemen from a year ago but all of those guys have seen significant playing time due to injuries, they just weren't listed as starters. That won't be a big deal for the Trojans. The team I see that could be in trouble is Clemson. They have a great quarterback, two great running backs and a great wide receiver. However, they have to replace both tackles from last season and after spring ball, the team still had no clear-cut starter, particularly at left tackle. All the candidates the Tigers used there in the spring were a revolving door, so the competition will spill over to the summer. Hmmm. A National Title sleeper that has no idea who their starting left tackle will be? I'm sorry but I see that as being a huge problem, especially opening up with Alabama. Some might point out that the Bama defense wasn't very good last year. That was last year. Nick Saban is a defensive-minded coach and he has a lot of young talent at his disposal. I guarantee that the Crimson Tide defense will be vastly improved this season. So, keep an eye on Clemson's tackle situation as we get closer to the start of the season. If it doesn't get fixed in a hurry, Tommy Bowden and the Tigers will be getting off to a slow start once again.
2. When two good teams square off, experience at quarterback is huge. As luck would have it, we have a perfect example of this on Sept. 13 when Ohio State travels to USC. First of all, you are going to get tremendous line value with the Buckeyes here. Everyone will remember Ohio State getting blasted in the last two National Championship Games, so oddsmakers will have to protect against everyone slamming the Trojans at a low number. Secondly, USC is going to maul Virginia in its opener. I think the Trojans will win this game by 40 points and if I'm right, that will only increase the line the following week against OSU.
I've already heard an early projection of USC -7 in this game. I'm sorry but that's way too high. Talk about tremendous value in a line. When you look at these two teams, they are almost a mirror image of each other. Both squads have dominating defenses and strong offensive lines leading the way for talented running backs. The big difference, however, is at quarterback. While Mark Sanchez started three games last year, he has never seen a defense like the Buckeyes. Meanwhile, Todd Boeckman has been in the biggest games, on the biggest stage. I'm not saying that Ohio State will win this game but I am saying that you will most likely get great value with the Buckeyes in this one. And when teams are as close as these two are, experience at the quarterback position will often be the difference.
3. Lay the wood early but beware once conference play begins. I love betting teams with explosive, experienced offenses early in the year to cover big numbers. Teams like Florida, Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas Tech will be almost impossible to stop when they face inferior opponents. The saying is defenses are ahead of the offenses early in the year but not for teams like this that have most of their starters returning, including blue-chip quarterbacks. Take the Florida/Hawaii game for instance. The Gators will name their score in that one. They will score, score and score all day long. I like to take a few teams every year that I think will have the best offenses in the country (Mine for 2008 are listed above) and bet them in the first couple weeks of the season.
That's part one of my plan. The second part involves taking the exact opposite approach once the tough conference slate begins. Because teams like Florida, Missouri, OU and Tech will roll teams early on, the spreads will be elevated by the time they reach conference play. That's when you can find good value when Florida travels to a Mississippi State or Missouri goes on the road to battle Colorado. My theory is you can find solid lines early in the year with these teams and then find value going against them once October rolls around.
These are just a couple of things I look at early in the college football season to try and find some winners. Please feel free to post any of your CFB betting strategies that you think would be beneficial to the forum. I look forward to the feedback.