Why Cleveland?
Let's break this down with Carmona as the WHEEL-HOUSE:
Carmona must face high ball hitting right handers in order to flourish. The command of that sinker depends on his ability to squeeze in on a right handed batter and force a swing on top of the ball. He wants that grounder.
So he likes RIGHT HANDED HIGH SWINGERS, and he needs a generous umpire with a BIG inside zone on RHB's.
Tom Hallion will give him that zone on the right handers.
So we have agreement with the Ump.
Do we have a favorable matchup with the Cincy Batting order? I believe we do!
Projected Lineup:
Freel (RHB): should get dominated by Carmona. He has definite cold zones on the inside and he's a high zone hitter. This kind of batter is a perfect candidate for a grounder, or a strikeout.
Freel will "look off" most of the gopher balls to the outside, so Carmona needs a first pitch strike on this guy, then we can dominate. Nothing should be done to the outside of Freel, especially high. If Fausto is in control, he will go right at this kid with the sinker to the belt.
Freel is a 52% ground baller!
Hairston (RHB): He's another High Zone hitter that sets up nicely for us, and even though you see a big number for his batting average, he traditionally sufffers from a Right-Right matchup.
Important to note that both Freel and Hairston are only 5'10" and are more suseptible to striking out against Fausto...Hairston has 3 at bats against Fausto.....1 K no hits.
Griffey (LHB): We need to fear him, but a command of the 2 leadoff guys might help us, and Fausto is not prone to give up the long ball, even in that bandbox. 1 home run in the last 10 games.
We fear Griffey, though.
Phillips (RHB): This guy is another EXTREME High Zone hitter, and he is a prime ground baller, so we can get under him in a hurry. We love this matchup, and it's a telling stat that, like Hairston, Phillips is not strong against RHP. This season he is a devastating .422 VS Southpaws, but totally ineffective VS right handers!!!! .234
This kid chases the LOW ZONE!!!!!!
Votto (LHB): Another dangerous Lefty, but he's a nice ground baller and like a few others, he is less effective against right handers!!! This is not a big disparity, but he's .300 VS Left and .266 VS Right....
Still, this is a guy that needs to be handled carefully.
Hatteberg (LHB) may be in his slot, sonce Hatteberg does better against Right handers and cannot hit Southpaws. He may come into play and he is VERY dangeous!!!!
Encarnacion (RHB) is a candidate to do poorly VS. Carmona. This guy is totally built to feed on LHP's, but he is deceptively bad VS the Right!
.311 VS the Left
.229 VS the Right!
If Cleveland has scouted him, then Carmona will attack this guy's EXTREME cold zones on the inside!!!! We have the ump that will let us squeeze him!!!
He's a High Zone Guy as well!
Dunn (LHB) is always a guy we need to worry about, usually, but he's slower and fatter this year and his .210 Batting average doesn't scare me as much.
More in a moment.....