uLast night I had a nice 6-1 showing, which included a 2-0 sweep of my top plays. Those top plays (3 unit or higher) are now 17-8 since I started tracking them. I look to keep it going today. I will be back later with more.
3 UNIT PLAY
ARIZONA -159 over Milwaukee: The Brewers are 21-47 in their last 68 games as a road underdog, while the Diamondbacks are 23-9 in their last 32 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200 and 17-5 in Webbs last 22 starts vs. National League Central. Manny Parra has been impressive for the Brew Crew this year, but most of his damage has been done at home. Manny is 5-0 at home with a 2.75 ERA, but on the road he is 3-2 with a high 5.77 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP. He is 2-0 in his last 3 road starts, but with a high 6.06 ERA. Those numbers would indicate great run support, but I don't see them putting up the the 5.6 rpg overall and the 5.3 rpg in his road starts for him against Brandon Webb. Brandon has struggled in his last 3 starts posting a 7.16 ERA, but he will be looking for a strong show today after he lost his last home start 15-1 to the A's, giving up 7 ER in just 3.1 innings of work. Webb is 6-1 with a 3.88 ERA at home and 6-2 with a 2.77 ERA in day games. Brandon allows a .295 OBP and has a 1.15 WHIP at home, plus he allows a .293 OBP and a 1.12 WHIP in his day starts. The D-Backs have been struggling a bit lately, putting up just 3.6 rpg in their last 7 games, but they still average 5.2 rpg at home and 4.6 rpg vs lefties. The Brewers come in hitting just .226 and scoring only 4 rpg in their last 7, plus they hit .243 and score 4.4 rpg vs righties this year. Manny does struggle with his ERA on the road and I don't expect the Brewers to give him the kind of road support he's used to vs Brandon Webb, who is looking to erase the memory of his last home starts. The Brewers will also be without Brian Braun for this one and that will not help their offense here. Webb will step up big and give his D-Backs a split in this 4 game set. (Winner --- +3 Units)
Detroit -138 over SEATTLE: The Tigers are 25-10 in their last 35 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 26-11 in Verlanders last 37 starts vs. a team with a losing record, while the Mariners are 5-11 in their last 16 during game 1 of a series and 1-7 in their last 8 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. The Detroit Tigers are rolling right now as they have won 18 of their last 24 games overall, including 7 or their last 10. Detroit is hitting .321 and scoring 4.7 rpg in their last 10 and even though they struggle to score on the road, they are still averaging 5.4 rpg at night on the year. Detroit is also 8-2 in their last 10 meetings with Seattle, scoring 8 rpg in the process. That offense will be facing Carlos Silva, who has been not very good this year. Carlos is 4-9 with a 5.69 ERA overall, including a 2-4 mark with a 5.44 ERA at home. He has also not had a good career vs the Tigers, going 5-5 with a 5.69 ERA in 13 starts vs them. Justin Verlander has had a nice career vs the M's, going 5-1 with a2.90 ERA in 6 career starts vs them. Justin has not had a great year overall, but he is starting to settle inas he is 2-0 with a 2.43 ERA in his last 4 starts, while in his last 9 starts overall he is 3-3 with a 2.49 ERA. The Seattle offense has not been very good this year, putting up just 4.1 rpg overall, including 3.9 rpg at home and just 3.9 rpg vs righty starters. Seattle does play better at home, but they up against a much hotter team with a pitcher that has been very good of late and I don't see them getting the job done in game 1 of this series.
2 UNIT PLAYS
HOUSTON/ LA Dodgers Over 8.5: The Over is 15-7 in Astros last 22 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5, while the Over is 5-1 in Dodgers last 6 Thursday games and Over is 8-3 in Astros last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing record, plus the Over is 4-1 in Timmons' last 5 games behind home plate. There aren't many overwhelming stats to support the over in this pick, but if you know where to look you will find enough to make a strong case for a higher scoring game than can be expected. Yes Chad Billingsley is hot right now, posting a 1.96 ERA in his last 3 starts and most of his games this year have been low scoring, but he does own a 4.74 REA in 3 career meetings with the 'Stros, while posting a 7.20 ERA in his last 2 meetings with them, including his lone start vs them this year, where he allowed 4 ER in just 5 innings of work. Now lets look at his last 3 starts, where he faced 3 offensively challenged teams in Cincy (29th in BA), Cleveland (28th in BA) and the Angels (22nd in BA). Cahd must now face a Houston team that is 12th in BA overall and hits .284, while scoring 4.9 rpg at home. Houston has also scored 4.7 rpg and hit .276 in their last 7 games and they put up 4.3 rpg vs righties on the year. Houston also scores plenty for Backe at home as the put up 6.6 rpg for him. Those numbers are all important as I only need 4 runs form Houston. Brandon Backe has not pitched that well this year as he owns a 5.12 REA overall, including a 4.69 ERA at home, plus he has a 5.33 ERA in day games. Brandon's home starts have averaged 12.3 rpg, while his overall starts have averaged 9.1 rpg and his last 3 have averaged 12.3 rpg. Houston's offense has been stagnat lately, but they still score 4.3 rpg on the road and they should be good for at least that vs Backe. There have been 9 home games for houston this year where the OU line was at 8.5 and those games averaged 11.1 rpg, with 6 of those games putting up double digits. Minute Maid park is 2nd in the league in OPS at .803 and 5th in the league in scoring at 9.95 rpg, , while Dodger road games have averaged 9.1 rpg. I just need at least 4 runs from each team and I do see that happening, which will give me a nice win on the over. (Loss --- -2.2 Units)
Washington/ CINCINNATI Under 9: The Under is 22-6-1 in Nationals last 29 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game and 7-1 in Lannans last 8 starts overall, while the Under is 6-1 in Reds last 7 during game 1 of a series and 10-3 in Cuetos last 13 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Washington has had problems scoring this year, putting up 3.7 rpg overall, including 4 rpg on the road and 3.7 rpg at night. Washington struggles vs righty starters as well, as they are hitting just .226 and scoring only 3.4 rpg vs them on the year. When Washington faces a righty the Under is 32-19, with just 7.8 rpg being scored. The Reds come in scoring 4.6 rpg vs lefties, with those games averaging 9.4 rpg, but they have been struggling at the play of lates, hitting just .246 and scoring only 4.1 rpg in their last 7 games. Johnny Cuerto has had some struggles this year, posting a 4.68 ERA overall, including a 4.11 ERA at home, but his last 3 starts have been impressive, as he owns a 1.47 ERA, while allowing a 1.09 WHIP in the 3 starts. Johnny's overall starts have produced 8.2 rpg, while his home starts have averaged 8.1 rpg and his last 3 starts overall have produced just 4.7 rpg. John Lannan has had a good year, ERA wise, as he owns a 3.54 ERA overall, including a 2.33 ERA on the road and a 3.86 ERA at night. John's games have been low scoring this year as they have averaged 6.88 RPG in his overall starts, including 5.7 rpg on the road and 7.8 rpg at night. He does come in with a 4.00 ERA in his last 3 starts, but he is allowing just a .260 OBP and a 1.03 WHIP in the 3 games. Two struggling offenses meet a solid pitching duel in a game that should produce no more thean 7 runs tops. (Winner--- +2 Units)
I ALSO LIKE
CINCINNATI -152 over Washington (Winner--- +2 Units)
1 UNIT PLAY
NY Mets/ St Louis Over 9.5 (Winner--- +1 Unit)
BEST OF LUCK TO EVERYONE TODAY
