First I would like to say Happy 4th of July everyone. I hope it's a safe, fun and profitable day for the entire Pregame family.
Off another nice night going 5-1, including another 2-0 sweep of my top plays. I am now 11-2 the last 2 days and 19-8 in my top plays, since charting them, including a 5-0 top play mark in July. Not really trying to get excited as I have been plagued by inconsistency over the last month or so, not really able to string more than a couple winning days in a row. I look to break out of that here. July is off to a good start and I hope to keep it going.
4 UNIT PLAY
MINNESOTA -135 over Cleveland: The Tribe is 4-13 as a road dog of +100 to +125 this year and 1-8 in Byrds last 9 road starts, while the Twins are 9-1 in their last 10 games following an off day and 10-2 in their last 12 home games. Yes Paul Byrd has had a nice career vs the Twins, going 10-4 with a 3.94 ERA in 18 starts vs them, but this year is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in 2 starts vs them. Paul has had a horrible year overall going 3-9 with a 5.26 ERA including a 1-7 mark with a 6.89 ERA on the road,plus its getting worse as he has gone 0-4 with a 8.10 ERA in his last 4 starts overall. Cleveland is 4-12 in his starts overall and 1-8 in his road starts. Those are not good number whae you are about to face a hot Minnesota team. Minnesota comes in winners in 16 of their last 21, including 10 of their last 12 at home. They have hit .310 and scored 5.1 rpg in their last 10 overall, while posting a 2.70 ERA over that same stretch. Minnesota hits .281 and scores 5.1 rpg vs righty starters this yea and they hit .279 and score 5.3 rpg at night. The Indians have had many offensive problems this year, thanks mainly to all the injuries. Cleveland hits just .242 and scores only 4.3 rpg on the road, and they hit just .252 and score only 4.4 rpg vs righty starters this year, plus Cleveland has scores just 1.7 rpg in their 3 dome games this year. Livan Hernandez has been solid for the Twins this year, going 8-5 overall despite a high 5.22 ERA. He has been very good at home, posting a 6-1 mark with a 3.99 ERA and he is 6-4 with a 4.79 ERA at night. The Twins are 12-6 in his overall starts, 8-2 in his home starts and 10-4 in his night starts. These two teams are headed in oppositie directions, so I will back the hotter team, playing at home with the better pitching and offense. Shouldn't be close. (Winner --- +4 Units)
3 UNIT PLAY
MINNESOTA/ Cleveland Under 9.5: Above I gave you a solid play on the side, but I also really like the Under in this game. The Under is 8-2 in Byrds last 10 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5 and 5-0 in Byrds last 5 starts on field turf, while the Under is 25-6-3 in Twins last 34 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and 7-0 in Twins last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game, plus the Under is 13-3-2 in the last 18 meetings in Minnesota. Sure Paul byrd has the high ERA's this year, but his starts have produced just 8.1 rpg overall, 8.4 rpg on the road and 8 rpg in his last 3 starts overall. The Indians just don't score for this guy as they put up 3 rpg overall and 2.7 rpg in his road starts. Livan's games are a bit more higher scoring as they average 9.9 rpg overall and 9.1 rpg at home, but the Twins do give him good run support. That may not happen today as Byrd has had some success vs them with a 3.94 career ERA, plus Minnesota has put up just 2.7 rpg in his last 3 starts. Cleveland's 3 dome games have averaged just 3.4 rpg and their road games have averaged 9.1 rpg, while Twin home games have put up 8.7 rpg on the year. THis series has been a low scoring one as the last 9 games between these two have averaged just 7 rpg, including an average of just 5.8 rpg in the last 6 played in Minnesota. The Twins should be good for no more than 5 or 6 in this one, while the Tribe should put no more than 3 on the board. I see a 5-2 or 6-2 final in this one. (Loss -3.3 units)
2 UNIT PLAY
Boston -130 over NY YANKEES: The Red Sox are 31-13 in Becketts last 44 starts as a favorite, 17-7 in Becketts last 24 road starts and 16-5 in his last 21 starts with 4 days of rest, while the Yankees are 1-6 in their last 7 games as a home underdog and 1-6 in Rasners last 7 starts. THe yankees are dead in the water right now. This team has no heart left, to go along with all the distractions surrounding them. In came Boston yesterday with the Yanks having their hottest pitcher on the mound and all they could do was lose 7-0. Today the Yanks face Josh Beckett, who is 7-5 with a 3.65 ERA overall, including a 3-4 mark with a 3.14 ERA on the road and a 2-1 mark with a 2.45 ERA in his last 6 starts. Josh is also 7-4 with a 4.74 ERA in his career vs the Yanks, including a sparkling 3-0 mark with 2.90 ERA in his last 3 starts. Darrel Rasner gets the Ball for the Yanks and after a 3-0 start with a 1.89 ERA in his first 3 games of the season, he has gone just 1-6 with a 5.68 ERA in his his last 7 starts. For the year he is 4-6 with a 4.42 ERA overall, while he has pitched better at home, with a 3-1 mark and a 2.08 ERA. Also Darrell has alllowed a .392 OPB and a 1.93 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Too many baserunners to give the Sox. The Boston offense scores just 4.4 rpg on the road, but they have hit .286 with a .381 OBP, while scoring 4.9 rpg in their last 7 games, plus they put 5.5 rpg on the board in day games, hitting .302 in the process. The Yanks put 18 runs on the board vs Texas a few days ago, but they have only put up 7 total runs in the 4 games before that one and the one game after. The Yanks score just 4.4 rpg in day games and 4 rpg in divisional games. This game would be rated higher, but therre are 2 concerns I do have. The foirst is the fact the the Home team is 12-3 in Schriebers last 15 games behind home plate vs. Boston and the Yankees are 8-0 in their last 8 games with Schrieber behind home plate. The 2nd is that the Yanks seem to be a screw the public kind of team as they win when everyone is against them and lose when everyone is on them. I think they made a deal with Vegas. Having said those 2 concerns, the fact is that that the Yanks are free falling right now and a visit from the Sox with Beckett on the mound won't help matters here. Boston takes game 2 of this 4 game set. (Winner -- +2 Units)
I ALSO LIKE
Milwaukee -1.5 (+100) over Pittsburgh (Winner -- +2 Units)
ARIZONA RL (+100) over San Diego (Loss -2 units)
1 UNIT PLAY
Texas/ Baltimore Over 9: The Over is 18-4-2 in Padillas last 24 starts following a team loss in their previous game, Over is 17-5-2 in his last 24 starts during game 1 of a series and 26-10-2 in his last 38 starts overall, while the Over is 19-7-1 in Orioles last 27 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 13-3-2 in their last 18 games following a loss. Both teams have been scoring st s good clip of late as Texas comes in averaging 5.2 rpg in their las 6 games, while the O's have put up 5.9 rpg in their last 10 games. Texas really like to hit against righty starters as they have a .284 BA and score 5.8 rpg vs them, with those games averaging 10.9 rpg. For the Year Texas games average 11.1 rpg overall, including 10.4 rpg on the road. Vicente Padilla has been involed in some high scoring games this year, as his starts produce 12 rpg overall, including 10.6 rpg in his road starts and 11.8 rpg in his day starts. The Rangers score 8.3 rpg for him in his day starts and 6.3 rpg in his road starts. The O's Home games have averaged 9.6 rpg on the year, while their last 7 overall have averaged 9.7 rpg. Baltimore scores 4.9 rpg at home and 4.6 rpg vs righty starters. Jeremy Guthrie hasn't been invovled in many high scoring games this year, but he is a righty and Texas kills right-handed pitching giving them an excellent shot at 5 or more runs, while Baltimore's offense should be good fo no less than 5 runs vs Padilla and the 29th ranked Texas pitching staff, plus the O's could get a few cheap runs as the Rangers are ranked dead last in errors. Should be a fun high scoring game in Baltimore today. (Winner -- +1 Units)
COLORADO/ Florida Over 10: The Over is 11-0-3 in Marlins last 14 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150, 39-14-5 in Marlins last 58 vs. a team with a losing record and 15-1-2 in Olsens last 18 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150, while the Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings and Over is 4-1 in Fairchilds last 5 games behind home plate. Some late scoring and extra innings put this game over the total last night, but I don't feel we will need extras to get the over tonight. The Marlins average 5.3 rpg on the road, including 5.5 rpg in Scott Olsen's road starts, plus they have averaged 6.1 rpg in their last 7 meetings in Colorado. The Rockies offense has waken up a bit lately as they have averaged 5.8 rpg in their last 6 overall, including 6.5 rpg on their current home stand. Colorado averages 4.9 rpg at home, including 5.7 rpg in Greg's home starts, plus they have also averaged 5.7 rpg in their last 7 games with Florida. Scott Olsen has had a good year for Florida, with a 3.47 ERA overall, but he does have some problems on the road, posting a 4.46 ERA, including a 6.33 ERA in last 4 starts away from home. Scott has not pitched well vs Colorado as he has a 9.88 ERA in his 3 career starts vs them. Greg Reynolds owns a 4.72 ERA at home this year, including a 5.71 ERA in his last 5 home starts, plus he has a 5.75 ERA overall for the year. Both of these offenses are capable of scoring at least 5 runs in this games and that's all I'll need to get the over. I see about 13 or 14 runs in this one. (Winner -- +1 Units)
CARD IS FINAL!!!
BEST OF LUCK TODAY EVERYONE
