For what it’s worth, Wednesday night, I was on the Rays 1st 5 ML for 2 units. I did not, however, bet the full game ML. I just don’t like betting against this Dodgers team winning a game. Their offense is just so damned explosive that they’re almost never out of a game. They came back from a 7-0 deficit in Game 2 of the NLCS. Even Wednesday night, trailing 5-2 in the bottom of the 5th with 2 outs and 2 on, the Rays lead wasn’t safe. One good swing of the bat could have made it a 5-5 game. Fortunately, that didn’t happen and I cashed my 1st 5 bet, leaving me +2.50 units for the day, -0.58 units for the postseason, and +29.41 units for the season.
In Game 2, the Dodgers opted to start rookie right-hander Tony Gonsolin, just two days after he’d thrown two innings in a relief appearance during Game 7 of the NLCS, instead of Walker Buehler on three days’ rest. That decision told me that, leading 1-0 in the series, the Dodgers1were willing to possibly lose Game 2 to improve their chances of winning Game 3 with a well rested Buehler.
The Rays got off to a fast start against Gonsolin with a one-out HR by Brandon Lowe. Lowe, who came into the game hitting just .107 in the postseason, finally came out of his playoff slump, homering twice and driving in three runs. Gonsolin retired the next two batters to end the inning without further damage, but after a lead-off walk and a harmless fly ball out, Dodger manager Dave Roberts surprisingly pulled Gonsolin, just six batters into the game inserting righty Dylan Florio. After throwing 41 pitches and facing 11 hitters on Sunday, there was no realistic chance that Gonsolin would go ever 5 innings just three days later, but pulling him after 29 pitches and four outs, with no imminent threat seemed a little premature. It just put even more strain on a Dodger pen trying to bridge the gap between Kershaw in Game 1 and Buehler in Game 3.
Florio finished the inning without further damage, aided by a couple of Rays baserunning blunders. Lefty Victor Gonzalez replaced Floro with two outs in the 3rd, then and returned to start the 4th. Gonzalez sandwiching two GBs around a walk to leave a runner at 1st with two gone. He’d thrown just 10 pitches, but Roberts made another questionable move, pulling Gonzalez for the night: right-hander Distin May. <ay prompty lave up a single then then a 2-run double making it 3-0. The Rays got 2 more runs off May in the 5th on a 2out single, followed by Lowe’s 2nd HR, making it 5-0 and pretty much clinching my 1st 5 bet.
Meanwhile, Rays starting pitcher Blake Snell was mowing down the Dodgers like they were perfectly aligned dominoes. Snell tossed 4.2 hitless innings with 9 Ks, before his 3rd walk was followed by a Chris Taylor HR, making it 5-2. After another walk and a single, manager Kevin Cash pulled Snell and in came Nick Anderson to end the treat.
The two teams each added a run in the 6th making it 6-3 Rays. In the bottom of the 8th, Corey Seager hit a lead-off HR off Peter Fairbanks cutting the deficit to 2 runs, 6-4. It was his 7th postseason dinger. A bloop double brought the tying run to the plate with no outs. The next two Dodgers hitters made solid contact, but both balls found their way into a fielder’s glove. Lefty Aaron Loop replaced Fairbanks and struk out Cody Bellinger to end the treat, then got the first two Dodgers in the 9th, before closer Diego Castillo struck out the final batter to end the game.
So much for the Game 2 recap, let’s move on to Game 3.
TB v LAD
Starting Pitchers
8:08
|
2020 Regular Season
|
|
GOOD
|
BAD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
GB%
|
HC%
|
LAD
|
Buehler - R (1-0)
|
|
(4/8)
|
(2/8)
|
0.95
|
3.44
|
4.36
|
3.93
|
3.80
|
0.257
|
10.31
|
2.70
|
1.72
|
0.198
|
68.7%
|
35.5%
|
25.8%
|
TB
|
Morton - R (2-2)
|
|
(5/9)
|
(1/9)
|
1.39
|
4.74
|
3.45
|
4.01
|
3.97
|
0.323
|
9.95
|
2.37
|
0.95
|
0.355
|
70.0%
|
41.6%
|
29.8%
|
|
2020 Postseason
|
|
GOOD
|
BAD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
GB %
|
HC%
|
LAD
|
Buehler - R (1-0)
|
|
(2/4)
|
(0/4)
|
1.37
|
1.89
|
3.24
|
3.30
|
3.49
|
N/A
|
13.74
|
5.21
|
0.95
|
0.317
|
94.8%
|
37.2%
|
N/A
|
TB
|
Morton - R (3-0)
|
|
(3/3)
|
(0/3)
|
1.39
|
0.57
|
1.98
|
3.82
|
3.43
|
N/A
|
9.77
|
2.30
|
0.00
|
0.262
|
87.5%
|
45.2%
|
N/A
|
Edge –
Bullpens
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
HC %
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
TB
|
4.74
|
13
|
0.325
|
13
|
109
|
9
|
10.2
|
13
|
0.187
|
7
|
34.7%
|
6
|
10.7%
|
4
|
26.9%
|
29
|
LAD
|
5.83
|
1
|
0.350
|
2
|
122
|
1
|
58.2
|
2
|
0.227
|
1
|
41.9%
|
1
|
9.8%
|
12
|
20.3%
|
2
|
Edge – LAD
Conclusion: These two teams had the two best records in baseball in this crazy season. After sweeping the Blue Jays in the AL Wild Card round, the Rays survived a really tough 5 game ALDS series and a surprisingly tough 7 game series against the Astros. After sweeping the Brewers in the NL Wild Card round and the Padres in the NLDS, The Dodgers fought back from 2-0 and 3-1 deficits against the Braves, winning three straight games to earn the NL berth in this World Series. The Dodgers took Game 1 on Tuesday behind a strong outing by Clayton Kershaw, while the Dodgers pounced on a shaky Tyler Glasnow for six 4th and 5th inning runs to seal the Dodger 8-3 win. The Rays bounced back on Thursday behind a strong outing by Blake Snell in a 6-4 win than evened the series.
Offensively, on paper, this looked like a mismatch going into this series and still does. During the regular season, the Dodgers scored 1.09 more runs per game than the Rays, with a wOBA that was 25 points higher, a wRC+ that was 13 points better, a wRAA that was 48 points better, an ISO that was 40 points better, and a 7.2% higher hard contact rate. In this postseason, the Dodgers have averagef over one and a half more runs per game (1.63) than the Rays, with a 39 point higher BA (.252 v .213).
With the exception of striking out way too much (rank #29), the Rays were a little above average in pretty much every other offensive category this season. That’s not bad, but, with the exception of being a little light on walks (rank #12) the Dodgers ranked either 1st or 2nd in every other significant offensive category. Since the Rays lack the traditional MVP-caliber sluggers who feast on FBs, the Rays had one of baseball’s worst records in 2020 against FBs, ranking just 26th. That would certainly explain their 29th ranked K rate during the regular season, and 167 Ks in 512 postseason Abs. The problem for the Rays in this series is that the Dodgers have as many as eight pitchers whose heaters averaged 95 mph or better, including tonight’s starter, Walker Buehler who averaged 96.9 mph. As for the Dodgers, it should be noted that they aren’’t quite as good against lefties. They rank 8th in wOBA (.335), wRC+ (113), and wRAA (8.2). That’s still very good, but not top 1 or 2. In the first two games of this series, the Dodgers have scored 12 runs on 15 hits and 11 walks. The Rays have scored 9 runs on 16 hits and 5 walks This Dodgers offense is elite and should be much better than the Rays mediocre offense.
As for the bullpen matchup, both of these bullpens were very good during the regular season. The Dodger pen won 1 more game than the Rays, but the Rays had a 23.7% higher save rate. However, the Dodgers had a 1.7% higher overall strand rate and allowed 0.06 fewer runs per inning pitched. They also had a 0.15 better WHIP, a 0.63 better ERA, better ERA metrics, a 0.8% better K rate and a 0.7% lower walk rate. That makes it sound like the Dodgers have the edge, but not so fast.
In the postseason, both of these bullpens have been less effective that they were in the regular season. I suppose that’s not really all that surprising in this era where getting five good innings from a starting pitcher is considered a good start. As a rule, bullpens tend to get used more in the playoffs anyway, and this season with no travel and as a result fewer days off, even the very best bullpens will feel the strain. The Rays pen is now 2-2 with a perfect 5 saves in 5 opportunities. They have given up 33 runs (29 earned) on 74 hits and 31 walks over 71.2 innings with 65 Ks. That translates to a high 1.47 WHIP, a solid 3.64 ERA and 0.46 runs allowed per inning pitched. By contrast, the Dodger pen has posted a 3-1 record, also with a perfect 5 saves in 5 save opportunities, giving up 29 runs (26 earned) on 57 hits and 17 walks over 59.1 innings, with 55 Ks. That translates to a solid 1.28 WHIP and 4.06 ERA, with 0.50 runs allowed per inning pitched.
As mentioned back in my October 8 post for the final game of the Dodger/Padre series, my concern with the Dodger pen was closer Kenley Jansen and his drop of about 1 mph in velocity. In the final game of the NLDS series against the Padres, Jansen gave up two 9th inning runs on 3 hits and 2 walks in just two thirds of an inning, and needed 30 pitches to get two outs! Joe Kelly had to come in and get the final out to preserve the Dodgers win. Jansen had been the Dodgers' primary closer since 2012 but has shown signs of decline over the past couple of seasons. In 2019, he saved 33 games but posted a career-worst 3.71 ERA. This season, Jansen started strong but gave up 7 earned runs in back-to-back outings in September. He was averaging 93-94 mph earlier this season, but rarely got above 90 mph in his postseason outings. In fairness, it should be noted that after a 10 day layoff, Jansen did pitch a perfect 9th, getting the save in the Dodgers 3-1 win in Game 6 on the NLCS, but he has not made an appearance since.
My inclination is to simply say that both of these pens are very good and call them even.
That brings us to the two starting pitchers and tonight we get two really good ones.
It took quite a while for the real Walker Buehler to emerge, and there were lots of speed bumps along the way. Over his last 8 starts, four regular season and four two postseason, Buehler has given up a total of 7 runs on 26 hits and 13 walks over 36.2 innings with 54 Ks. Buehler was shaky over the first month of the season with 2 good starts and 1 poor one in his 4 outings. He had given up 12 runs (11 earned) on 13 hits and 9 walks over 19 innings, with 17 Ks. During the regular season Buehler posted a stellar 0.95 WHIP, a good 3.44 ERA, and very good .257 wOBA against, with ERA metrics that are still a little higher than his ERA, but not alarmingly so. Buehler’s 28.6% K rate was excellent, but his 7.5% walk rate (11 walks in 36.2 IP) was high.
In four postseason starts, Buehler has been very good, posting a 1-0 record with 2 good starts and 0 poor ones. He has given up just 4 runs on 15 hits (2 HRs) -and 11 walks over 19 innings, with 29 Ks. His 13.3% postseason walk rate is the only real red flag that I see. Buehler heeds to stop walking batters at that exorbitant clip or he’s gonna get burned. He is also prone to finger blisters that could pop up (excuse the pun) at any time. I’ll hope that tonight’s not one of those times.
Charlie Morton had to leave his August 9 start against the Yankees with a shoulder problem, After returning to the Rays rotation, Morton started 5 games with 3 good starts, giving up 11 runs (10 earned) on 22 hits and 6 walks over 21.1 innings with 25 Ks. Before the injury, Morton had started 4 games with 2 good starts and 1 poor one. Morton’s 1.39 WHIP and 4.74 ERA were both much higher than we’re used to seeing from him. However his ERA metrics were all considerably lower than that high ERA. That would seem to suggest the Moron actually pitched better than his very high ERA would suggest. His 24.7% K rate was still very good as was his low 29.8% hard contact rate. Morton has pitched really well in his three postseason starts giving up just 2 runs (1 earned) on 11 hits and 4 walks over 15.2 innings with 17 Ks. In his first start against the Yankees, Morton was solid, giving up just 2 runs (1 earned on 4 hits and 2 walks over 5 innings with 5 Ks. In his next start against the Astros in the ALCS, Moron tossed 5 shutout innings giving up 5 hits and a walk. The numbers look impressive, , but he was also very lucky to escape unscathed. In the first 4 innings of that game, the Astros put 7 runners on base (4 in scoring position), but stranded all of them. Morton made good pitches when he had to, but he was also very lucky. His most recent start was his best. In Game 7 of that ALCS, he tossed 5.2 shutout innings, giving up just 2 hits and a walk.
My big concern with Morton, coming into this season, was that, at 36, he wouldn’t be able to duplicate his excellent 2019 numbers again this season, especially after working a career-high 205.2 innings last season. AS it turned out, he didn’t come close. Of course, Morton was the Rays best and most consistent starter last season. He was coming off a career season in which he would have been a Cy Young contender were it not for a couple of guys named Cole and Verlander in HTN, so some regression was to be expected.
Buehler’s propensity for giving up walks this season is a concern, particularly facing a Rays team that ranked 4th in walks during the regular season. On the plus side, Buehler’s FB averaged just under 97 mph and the Rays struggle with FBs, so I would expect a lot of Ks from Buehler tonight against a Rays team that ranked 29th in the league in K rate. The Rays are also very dependent on the long ball for offense. 45 of the 66 runs that they’ve scored this postseason have come from HRs. Buehler only gave up 7 in his 36.2 regular season innings, and just 2 in his 19 postseason innings, so the Rays could struggle to score runs in this one.
I’ve been on the Dodger bandwagon most of this season because I thought that they were the most talented team in baseball and were legitimate favorites to win it al. Recently, I’ve had some second thoughts. I thought that the lack of starting pitching depth and closer Jansen’s struggles might prevent them from getting to the World Series again, but here they are, in the World Series and favored to win it all.
These two offenses are not close. The Rays are a little above average, but the Dodgers are elite. As for the bullpens, they were both very good during the regular season, but both have shown cracks in this postseason. I’m still somewhat concerned about the whole Jansen thing and the effect it might be having on Dodger pen that woked 7.2 innings in Game 2. Still, despite Jansen’s problems, the Dodgers pen really hasn’t performed any worse in this postseason than the Rays pen has, so I’m calling the bullpens even. Both teams are excellent defensively. The Dodgers should have a small edge because this is their second straight series at Globe Life, but that edge should become smaller as the Rays get more familiar with a park that they had never played in before this series. O the other hand the Rays have an edge in the managerial department. Kevin Cash is the best in-game manager in baseball. I’ll charitably say that Dave Roberts is not.
I loved the Dodgers in Game 1. They have the much better offense and they also had the better starting pitcher. In Game 2, while the Dodgers still had the clearly better offense, I thought that the Rays had the better starting pitcher and they needed the game. Tonight, the Dodgers still have the much better offense. I think that they also have the better starting pitcher. I’m calling the starting pitching matchup even because Morton’s been very good this postseason and I don’t want to take anything away from him. I just feel that, at this stage in their respective careers (Buehler at 26 and Moron at 36), Buehler is better. I bet this one yesterday evening. Since theym this line’s dropped about 3 cents, so I don’t feel too bad about not getting the best number
Pick – LAD ML (-148 for 3 units)