For what it’s worth, I’m pissed! Last night, I was once again on the Dodgers ML for 2 units. I could have won that bet, maybe even should have won it, but I lost it in a truly bizarre finish to an incredibly wild game. That loss left me -2 units for the day, -0.55 units for the postseason, and +29.44 units for the season.
The Rays found a way to win last night’s Game 4 in a wild finish. It could also be argued that the Dodgers found a way to lose that game. The Rays took advantage of a two disastrous error by Dodger CF Chris Taylor and C Will Smith on the same play, to snatch an 8-7 come-from-behind win that saved their season and tied this series at 2-2.
With two outs and two strikes in the bottom of the 9th and the Dodgers clinging to a 7-6 lead, rarely used OF Brett Phillips, laced a single to CF off the Dodgers much maligned closer Kenley Jansen to tie the game at 7-7. Dodgers CF Chris Taylor kicked the ball, and Randy Arozarena who started on first, never stopped running. Taylor threw the ball to 1B Max Muncy, who then relayed it to C Will Smith. Arozarena actually stumbled around third and would have been an easy out at the plate, until Smith dropped the ball and the ricochet allowed Arozarena to dive and score the winning run, snatching an unlikely 8-7 win.
This was a wild game that saw five separate lead changes. For the second straight game, Justin Turner homered in the top of the 1st to give the Dodgers a quick 1-0 lead. Corey Seager’s record-tying eighth HR this postseason and it 2-0 Dodgers in the 3rd. An inning later, Arozarena broke that tie, with his 9th HR of the postseason and 3rd in this series, to cut the Dodgers' lead to 2-1. The Dodgers added a run in the 5th on a Muncy single, and another in the 6th on an Erinque Hernandez double that made it 4-1 Dodgers and left runner on 2nd and 3rd.. The next batter, Mookie Betts, could have broken this game wide open, but instead flied out to end the inning. In the bottom of the 6th, after a leadoff single by the red hot Arozarena, followed by a walk and a K, with his uncanny ability to make pitching changes at precisely the worst possible time, manager Dave Roberts decided this was a good time to pull reliever Blake Treinan and bring in right hander Pedro Baez. Brandon Lowe greeted Baez and rewarded Roberts with a 3-run shot and that quickly, the Rays led 5-4. The Dodgers responded in the top of the 7th when a 2-run single by PH Joe Peterson made it 6-5 Dodgers before Cody Bellinger was thrown out a 3rd ending the inning. In the bottom of the inning, a solo shot by Kevin Kiermaier off Baez tied the game at 6. In the top of the 8th a Saeger single put the Dodgers ahead 7-6. In the bottom of the 8th Roberts brought in righty Adam Kolarek who opened the inning with a walk, but got the next two batters on a flyout and a K. Roberts then inexplicably pulled Kolarek and brought in righty Brusdar Graterol, who immediately gave up a single before getting the final out to end the inning. That set the stage for the bizarre 9th inning that was to follow. Roberts had one more questionable pitching change left in his bag, as he bought out the even more maligned Jansen to pitch the 9th and close out the win. That’s been a problem for Jansen lately and this game was no different. He did get 2 out, but also gave up a single and a walk, putting runners on 1st and 2nd before giving up Phillips game tying single and the comedy of errors that followed.
It’s now a best of three series and the Dodgers will have Kershaw, ???, and Buehler if a Game 7 is needed. The Rays will counter with Glasnow, Snell and Morton. I still like their chances to win this series, but don’t underestimate their ability to blow it once again, especially with Roberts making the crucial decisions.
With Game 4 now in the books, let’s move on to Game 5.
LAD v TB
Starting Pitchers
8:08
|
2020 Regular Season
|
|
GOOD
|
BAD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
GB%
|
HC%
|
LAD
|
Kershaw - L (6-2)
|
|
(8/10)
|
(1/10)
|
0.84
|
2.16
|
3.31
|
3.05
|
3.22
|
0.247
|
9.57
|
1.23
|
1.23
|
0.232
|
82.5%
|
53.0%
|
33.3%
|
TB
|
Glasnow - R (5-1)
|
|
(6/11)
|
(3/11)
|
1.13
|
4.08
|
3.66
|
2.75
|
3.04
|
0.285
|
14.28
|
3.45
|
1.73
|
0.281
|
78.6%
|
38.7%
|
38.4%
|
|
2020 Postseason
|
|
GOOD
|
BAD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
GB %
|
HC%
|
LAD
|
Kershaw - L (3-1)
|
|
(3/4)
|
(1/4)
|
0.84
|
2.88
|
3.15
|
2.77
|
2.43
|
N/A
|
11.16
|
1.08
|
1.44
|
0.255
|
84.4%
|
50.8%
|
N/A
|
TB
|
Glasnow - L (2-2)
|
|
(1/5)
|
(3/5)
|
1.44
|
6.08
|
6.02
|
3.97
|
3.82
|
N/A
|
12.55
|
5.32
|
2.66
|
0.265
|
74.4%
|
46.4%
|
N/A
|
Edge – LAD
Bullpens
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
HC %
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
5.83
|
1
|
0.350
|
2
|
122
|
1
|
58.2
|
2
|
0.227
|
1
|
41.9%
|
1
|
9.8%
|
12
|
20.3%
|
2
|
TB
|
4.74
|
13
|
0.325
|
13
|
109
|
9
|
10.2
|
13
|
0.187
|
7
|
34.7%
|
6
|
10.7%
|
4
|
26.9%
|
29
|
Edge – LAD
Conclusion: These two teams had the two best records in baseball in this crazy season. After sweeping the Blue Jays in the AL Wild Card round, the Rays survived a really tough 5 game ALDS series and a surprisingly tough 7 game series against the Astros. After sweeping the Brewers in the NL Wild Card round and the Padres in the NLDS, The Dodgers fought back from 2-0 and 3-1 deficits against the Braves, winning three straight games to earn the NL berth in this World Series. The Dodgers took Game 1 on Tuesday behind a strong outing by Clayton Kershaw, while the Dodgers pounced on a shaky Tyler Glasnow for six 4th and 5th inning runs to seal the Dodger 8-3 win. The Rays bounced back on in Game 2 behind a strong outing by Blake Snell in a 6-4 win than evened the series. Walker Buehler dominated the Rays in Game 3, and the Dodgers pounced on Charlie Moron’s mistakes for a 6-2 win and a 2-1 series lead. Last night, the Rays somehow managed to win and the Dodgers somehow managed to lose a wild and bizarre game 4, 8-7 to tie the series at two games apience.
Offensively, on paper, this looked like a mismatch going into this series and still does. During the regular season, the Dodgers scored 1.09 more runs per game than the Rays, with a wOBA that was 25 points higher, a wRC+ that was 13 points better, a wRAA that was 48 points better, an ISO that was 40 points better, and a 7.2% higher hard contact rate. In this postseason, the Dodgers have averaged 1.66 more runs per game (5.88) than the Rays (4.22), with a 46 point higher BA (.262 v .214).
With the exception of striking out way too much (rank #29), the Rays were a little above average in pretty much every other offensive category this season. That’s not bad, but, with the exception of being a little light on walks (rank #12) the Dodgers ranked either 1st or 2nd in every other significant offensive category. Since the Rays lack the traditional MVP-caliber sluggers who feast on FBs, the Rays had one of baseball’s worst records in 2020 against FBs, ranking just 26th. That would certainly explain their 29th ranked K rate during the regular season, and their 194 Ks in 576 postseason ABs. The problem for the Rays in this series is that the Dodgers have as many as eight pitchers whose heaters averaged 95 mph or better. As for the Dodgers, it should be noted that they aren’’t quite as good against lefties. They rank 8th in wOBA (.335), wRC+ (113), and wRAA (8.2). That’s still very good, but not top 1 or 2. In the first three games of this series, the Dodgers have scored 25 runs on 40 hits and 18 walks. The Rays have scored only 19 runs on 30 hits and 11 walks This Dodgers offense is elite and should be much better than the Rays mediocre offense.
As for the bullpen matchup, both of these bullpens were very good during the regular season. The Dodger pen won 1 more game than the Rays, but the Rays had a 23.7% higher save rate. However, the Dodgers had a 1.7% higher overall strand rate and allowed 0.06 fewer runs per inning pitched. They also had a 0.15 better WHIP, a 0.63 better ERA, better ERA metrics, a 0.8% better K rate and a 0.7% lower walk rate. That makes it sound like the Dodgers have the edge, but not so fast.
In the postseason, both of these bullpens have been less effective that they were during the regular season. I suppose that’s not really all that surprising in this era where getting five good innings from a starting pitcher is considered a good start. As a rule, bullpens tend to get used more in the playoffs, and this season with no travel and as a result fewer days off, even the very best bullpens will feel the strain. With last night’s win, the Rays pen is now 3-2 with a perfect 5 saves in 5 opportunities. They have given up 37 runs (34 earned) on 87 hits and 36 walks over 82 innings with 74 Ks. That translates to a high 1.50 WHIP, a solid 3.73 ERA and 0.46 runs allowed per inning pitched. By contrast, after last night’s loss, the Dodger pen is now 3-2 record, also with 5 saves in 5 save opportunities, giving up 36 runs (32 earned) on 64 hits and 21 walks over 64.2 innings, with 63 Ks. That translates to a mediocre 1.31 WHIP and mediocre 4.45 ERA, with 0.56 runs allowed per inning pitched.
As mentioned back in my October 8 post before the final game of the Dodger/Padre NLDS, my concern with the Dodger pen was closer Kenley Jansen and his drop of about 1 mph in velocity. In that final game, Jansen gave up two 9th inning runs on 3 hits and 2 walks in just two thirds of an inning, and needed 30 pitches to get two outs! Joe Kelly had to come in and get the final out to preserve the Dodgers win. Jansen had been the Dodgers' primary closer since 2012 but has shown signs of decline over the past couple of seasons. In 2019, he saved 33 games but posted a career-worst 3.71 ERA. This season, Jansen started strong but gave up 7 earned runs in back-to-back outings in September. He was averaging 93-94 mph earlier this season, but rarely got above 90 mph in his postseason outings. In fairness, it should be noted that after a 10 day layoff, Jansen did pitch a perfect 9th, getting the save in the Dodgers 3-1 win in Game 6 on the NLCS, but he hadn’t made an appearance since until Friday night, when he gave up a solo HR in a meaningless 9th inning mop up role. In a really questionable decision by manger Dave Roberts, Jansen was brought in again last night in the 9th to close what looked like a 7-6 win, but ended up being the losing pitcher, by giving up 2 run (1 earned) on 2 hits and a walk in his 0.2 innings. Jansen just can’t be trusted any longer
My original inclination is to simply say that both of these pens were very good and call them even, but now I find myself leaning Rays mostly because of Jansen and Roberts poor pitching changes..
That brings us to the two starting pitchers and that will be most interesting.
Clayton Kershaw has now started 14 games for the Dodgers this season, posting a 9-2 record with 11 good starts and just 2 poor one. Kershaw posted a sparkling 0.84 WHIP and 2.16 this season. His ERA metrics were all a little higher than his stellar ERA, but still very good. The reason for that discrepancy is probably Kershaw’s low .232 BABIP, which was 32 point lower that his career average. He had an excellent 28.1% K rate and generated a surprisingly great 53% GB rate which was 6.5% better than his career rate of 46.5%. Kershaw is still a top notch starting pitcher and at 32 it sure seemed like the reduced 60 game season helped. Kershaw looked like he’d discovered the fountain of youth. He was brilliant in his first postseason start against the Brewers, tossing 8 shutout innings, allowing just 3 hits and 1 walk over 8 stunning innings with a whopping 13 Ks. Kershaw wasn’t quite as sharp in his NLDS start again the Padres, giving up 3 runs on 6 hits (2 HRs) over 6 innings with 6 Ks. He was scratched from his Game 3 NLCS start because of back spasms, but returned a day later as the Dodgers Game 4 starter. I can’t say for sure that his back was the problem, but I can say it was clearly his weakest postseason outing. In that game, Kershaw gave up 4 runs on 7 hits and a walk over 5 innings with 4 Ks and 10 GBs. I’m also comfortable saying the Manager Dave Roberts should have pulled him after 5 great innings. He never should have been sent out to pitch the 6th, the inning that gave him all the trouble. Kershaw bounced back with a stellar outing in Game 1 of this series, giving up just 1 run on 2 hits and a walk over 6 innings with 8 Ks amd 7 GBs. In his four postseason starts, Kernshaw is now 3-1 with 3 good starts and 1 poor one. He has given up 8 runs on 18 hits and 3 walks over 25 innings with 31 Ks and a 50.8% GB rate. That translates to a superb 0.84 WHIP and 2.88 ERA.
Tyler Glasnow got progressively better as the season progressed. He started 11 games for the Rays during the regular season posting a 5-1 record with 6 good starts and 3 poor ones. His last 7 outings were particularly good resulting in all 6 of his good starts and just 1 poor one. Over that stretch Glasnow gave up just 14 runs on 26 hits and 12 walks over 42 innings with 64 Ks. The Ks were impressive, but the 17 walks were not. That left Glasnow with a solid 1.13 WHIP, but a mediocre 4.08 ERA. However, his ERA metrics were all considerably lower than his ERA. That tells me that Glasnow actually pitched better than his ERA would suggest. He hasn’t fared anywhere near as well in the postseason. Glasnow is now 2-2 with 1 good start and 3 poor ones. He’s given up 16 runs on 20 hits (7 HRs) and 14 walks over 23.2 innings with 33 Ks. That translates to a high 1.44 WHIP and ugly 6.08 ERA. One concern is the 18 HRs in his 81 innings, including 7 in his five postseason starts.
I don’t expect Kershaw to be a dominant as he was in Game 1. That would be too much to expect. However, Glasnow’s propensity for giving up the long ball is an issue, and that’s something these Dodger hitters can definitely exploit. The Dodgers led the league with 118 HRs, 15 more than the 2nd place Braves, and they’ve hit another 27 in this postseason. So far this postseason, Kershaw has clearly outperformed Glasnow. If the future Hall of Famer is anywhere near 100% the Dodgers should have the starting pitching edge here.
I’ve been on the Dodger bandwagon most of this season. I thought that they were the most talented team in baseball and were the team most likely to win it al. I’ll admit that I had some second thoughts and still do. I was concerned about the lack of starting pitching depth behind Kershaw and Buehler. That issue is real. I was concerned about Jansen’s struggles. He was supposed to be the Dodgers’ closer and he was awful again last night. I also had concerns about Dodger manager Dave Robertd decision making especially his pitching changes. I don’t know it he’s just snake bitten or really bad, but his piching changes seem to almost always backfire on him. Last night was another classic example.
These two offenses are not close. The Rays are a little above average, but the Dodgers are elite. As for the bullpens, they were both very good during the regular season, but both have shown cracks in this postseason. I’m still somewhat concerned about the whole Jansen thing and the effect it might be having on the Dodger pen. Still, despite Jansen’s problems, the Dodgers pen really hasn’t performed any worse in this postseason than the Rays pen has, so I’m calling the bullpens even. Both teams are excellent defensively. The Dodgers might have a small edge because this is their second straight series at Globe Life, but that edge gets smaller and smaller as with each passing game, the Rays get more familiar with a park that they had never played in before this series. On the other hand the Rays have a clear edge in the managerial department. Kevin Cash is the best in-game manager in baseball. I’ll charitably say that Dave Roberts is not.
I loved the Dodgers in Game 1. They had the much better offense and they also had the better starting pitcher. In Game 2, while they still had the clearly better offense, I thought that the Rays had the better starting pitcher and they needed the game. On Friday night, the Dodgers obviously still had the much better offense, but I thought that they also had the better starting pitcher and at least for that game, I was right. Last night, the Dodgers still have a clear offensive edge and neither bullpen impressed, but of the two the Dodgers pen was probably worse. I didn’t trust either starting pitcher. Urias has had the better postseason, and I thought that he matches us better against the Rays hitters, than Yarbrough did against the Dodgers more formidable offense. Tonight, Glasnow can be good enough to be dangerous, but he sure has struggled and he got shelled by these Dodgers in Game 1.
I like the Dodgers here. The Rays found a way to win a game that they desperately needed and now they have to face Kershaw just 24 hours later. A lot of this had to go right for the Rays to win last night,. I doubr that they’re as lucky tonight. My concern, other than that I don’t Kershaw will be quite as sharp this time out, is the Dodgers’ state of mind. They still haven’t exorcised their postseason demons and last night’s collapse sure didn’t help. I’m also a little worried about what I consider a managerial mismatch. Roberts has the better team, but he’s playing checkers while Cash is playing chess. If it’s close late, the Rays will have an edge. I think the Dodgers treat this a a must win game and with Kershaw on the hill and their potent offense, I really like their chances.
Pick – LAD 1st 5 RL (-111 for 3 units) and full game ML (-155 for 3 units