The Indians came through for me this afternoon, may the Rockies do likewise tonight. Her is that breakdown.
WASH @ COL: Josiah Gray (R) v Josiah Marquez (R)
This is another game with no playoff implications. The Nats, who lost 3 straight to the Reds over the weekend and have now replaced the Marlins at the bottom of the NL East standings, gave up on this season at the trade deadline, when the unloaded several of their star players (most notably Max Scherzer). The Rockies, who dropped three games to the Giants at Coors, still have a huge home/road discrepancy with an impressive 46-32 record at Coors and an ugly 25-52 record on the road.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
WSN
|
4.51
|
15
|
0.327
|
5
|
101
|
10
|
56.5
|
7
|
9.0%
|
11
|
31.8%
|
17
|
31.8%
|
17
|
21.3%
|
4
|
COL*
|
5.63
|
2
|
0.346
|
3
|
89
|
27
|
73.7
|
4
|
7.7%
|
25
|
33.0%
|
9
|
36.7%
|
1
|
19.2%
|
2
|
Edge – COL
*Since the Rockies hit so much better at home, I used home stats only for them.
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
W %
|
Rank
|
WSN
|
0.632
|
28
|
1.41
|
25
|
5.02
|
28
|
9.6%
|
28
|
22.4%
|
23
|
10.1%
|
16
|
43.8%
|
28
|
35.1%
|
28
|
COL
|
0.598
|
25
|
1.43
|
27
|
5.01
|
27
|
69.0%
|
26
|
22.4%
|
23
|
11.0%
|
24
|
64.9%
|
26
|
58.7%
|
26
|
Edge – COL by default only
Starting Pitchers
Josiah Gray has started 11 games for the Nats, with 3 grading as above average, 1 grading as average, and 7 grading as below average. In those 11 starts, Gray has given up a total of 36 runs (35 earned) on 52 hits (15 HRs) and 27 walks over 55.1 innings with 58 Ks. His 1.43 WHIP and 5.69 ERA are both high, as are Gray’s ERA metrics. That’s almost certainly because of a low .259 BABIP and high 11.1% walk rate. Gray has also had a problem with HRs, giving up almost 1,5 per start . None of that bodes well for Gray at Coors.
German Marquez has started 31 games for the Rockies with 17 above average starts and 14 below average ones, but 7 of the below average starts were during his last 8. Over his 9 August and September starts, Marquez has posted a very high 1.51 WHIP and mediocre 4.47 ERA. Marquez’s overall 1.26 WHIP is OK, but his 4.32 ERA is mediocre. However, his 4.03 xERA is a little lower than his ERA, as are all his ERA metrics. Marquez’s .302 wOBA and .306 xwOBA are both lower than league average and his 23.5% K rate is also solid, and Marquez is combining it with a very good 51.0% GB rate, always a good thing when you pitch half of your games at Coors. His 8.5% walk rate is on the high side, but not alarmingly so. It should be noted that this season Marquez has been much better at home, posting a 1.15 WHIP, a 3.49 ERA and a .275 wOBA in his 17 starts at Coors, as opposed to a 1.40 WHIP, a 5.38 ERA and a .336 wOBA in his 14 road starts.
The Nats are hitting, but the Rockies hit even better when playing at Coors. That given, it is interesting what while the Rockies rank 2nd in RPG, 3rd in wOBA and 4th in WRAA, they only rank 27th in wRC+, suggest while this team puts a lot of runners on, they have a hard time bringing them home. This is a very inefficient offense. As for the two bullpens, they both suck, but the Nats pen sucks worse. That leaves the two starting pitchers, and while Marquez has struggled in his 9 August and September starts, he has still pitcher better than Josiah Gray. The Rockies have all the edges in this game.
Pick - COL 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays