Smith didn’t play yesterday, which is a shame considering all the runs the Doyers scored. Most likely woulda had a coupla winners. Oh well….
0-0 yesterday, 52-49 season
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Fernando Tatis Jr. (SDP) Over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs (-125)
Fernando Tatis Jr. comes into play as one of the hottest hitters in baseball. Over the last week, Tatis is hitting .588 in 17 at-bats. That number gets even better when we filter it down to right-handed pitching. Luckily for us bettors backing him tonight, he’s going against a familiar foe in RHP Brandon Pfaadt.
Pfaadt’s advanced numbers have been solid this season. He ranks in the 87th and 69th percentile in xBA% and xBA. Nonetheless, I give the nod to hitters who have seen an opposing pitcher more than once over a month timeframe. Pfaadt was hit hard in May against this Padres lineup as he allowed 10 hits across 6 innings, with Tatis going 1/3 off the righty.
I expect Tatis to continue to dominate from the plate tonight. In his last 2 games, he’s 8/10 with all 8 hits coming off RHP. Even at home, where he may not have the chance to hit in the 9th, this is still a great price of -125 to attack.
Logan Webb (SF) Under 6.5 hits allowed (-120)
We’re backing another star in the NL West with our 2nd MLB player prop bet of the slate. Logan Webb will take on the underwhelming Texas Rangers on the road, where he has allowed fewer than 7 hits in 5 of 7 starts.
The Rangers come into play hitting just .214 against RHP in the last month — that ranks 4th-worst in baseball. During that span, Stars at the top of the order, like Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia, are hitting below .200. Meanwhile, Corey Seager is hitting over .300 but may not play tonight after being pulled in Wednesday’s game.
Webb is putting together another outstanding season. He ranks in the 93rd percentile in groundball%, while the Rangers rank in the top 5 against RHP in that category. We’ll most likely see Webb pitch into the 7th inning tonight, but I still expect him to breeze through this Rangers order and stay under this prop.