For what it worth, the 2024 MLB season gets off to an earlier than usual start tomorrow, when the Dodgers and Padres square off in a two-game series in Seoul, South Korea.
I made a promise to myself to try and make my write ups shorter and more to the point this season and I intend to keep it, but that won’t be possible early on. My early write ups will be sort of my season previews for the various teams, so in an effort to be comprehensive, they will bedamned lengthy and I apologize in advance for that. When we get enough relevant stats from this season, I will be able to keep my promise. Until then, please bear with me.
My first play of the season will be on the first game of the season LAD v SD.
With the Dodgers, what happens during the regular season really isn’t important. Barring any catastrophe, the Dodgers should win the NL West and get to the postseason. Winning a World Series is the only thing that matters. The Dodgers last won a World Series in the Covid-shortened 2020 season as their critics keep remining them. The truth is that despite the short season, they still had to beat a solid group of playoff opponents, but until the Dodgers win one in a full season, the skeptics won’t let go and their back-to-back NLDS exits over the last two seasons just lends more credibility to that narrative. The Dodgers have won at least 100 games in each of the last four full seasons and made the postseason in five of the last six, but for better or worse, they will still be defined by what they do in October. This season it’s World Series or bust. The Dodgers had arguably the best roster in baseball last season and added big-ticket free agents P/OF/P Shohei Ohtani, the reigning AL MVP and P Yoshinobu Yamamoto as the Dodgers continued to spend tons of money in their elusive quest for a championship.
Last season, the Padres were almost a really good team. They finished just 82-80, but with a +104 run differential that was better than the Phillies, Brewers, Blue Jays, and Diamondbacks, all of whom were playoff teams. The Padres were right there, but somehow managed to miss the playoffs. By Pythagorean W-L, they finished 10 games worse than they should have. By BaseRuns, they profiled as a 91 or 92-win team. Still, the bottom line is that the Padres finished 18 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. How did that happen? Well, they were only 9-23 in one-run games and an awful 2-12 in extra-inning games. Of course, they also lost 9 of 13 in their heads-to-head games with the Dodgers and this season those Dodgers look even better, while the Padres might not be as good.
Starting Pitchers
20-Mar
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
LAD
|
Glasnow - R
|
|
(15/21)
|
(6/21)
|
1.08
|
3.53
|
3.63
|
2.91
|
2.75
|
3.08
|
0.270
|
0.292
|
33.4%
|
7.6%
|
SD
|
Darvish - R
|
|
(14/24)
|
(10/24)
|
1.30
|
4.56
|
3.82
|
4.03
|
3.92
|
4.04
|
0.259
|
0.291
|
24.6%
|
7.5%
|
Edge - LAD
It’s pretty obvious that Tyler Glasnow was the better of these two pitchers last season Glasnow, who the Dodgers traded for and then extended, will be the Dodgers' opening day starter. The 29-year-old righty threw a career-high 120 innings last season, posting a 10-7 record with a 1.06 WHIP and 3.53 ERA, as well as a 162/37 K/BB ratio, but as has too often been the case, Glasnow hit the IL twice, at the start of the season with an oblique issue and then with back spasms later in the summer. Coming into 2023, he’d never been able to avoid the IL long enough to reach even 120 innings, averaging less than 65 innings per season. Glasnow’s career has been highlighted by stretches of brilliance when he looked almost unhittable, combined with times when he struggles to locate his fastball and hitters jumped all over him. Then there were the repeated stretches on the IL. Glasnow’s 6’-8” frame and long extension and slowed his delivery, leaving him susceptible to steals. He permitted 19 in 2023. With the Dodgers’ potent lineup, Glasnow should get plenty of run support. He clearly has the stuff to be an ace, especially on this team, but needs to stay healthy and that’s been the problem.
The Padres will counter with 37-year-old Yu Darvish. Darvish was pitching OK. but not at the elite level that he once displayed. Right elbow inflammation ended his 2023 season at the end of August. A bone spur was discovered, but a cleanup procedure in the offseason was ruled out despite Darvish’s history of elbow trouble including Tommy John surgery in 2015 and a stress reaction in 2018. He finished 2023 with just an 8-10 record, a mediocre 1.30 WHIP and a 4.56 ERA with a 141/43 K/BB ratio. Darvish’s dominance has been fading in recent seasons and it's becoming increasingly difficult to back him at his age and with his health issues and declining skills. The bone also remains a legitimate concern. I’m not expecting all that much from Darvish this season.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
HLD
|
RIP
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
38
|
25
|
44
|
16
|
73.3%
|
3
|
85
|
0.43
|
3
|
73.4%
|
8
|
1.17
|
1
|
3.42
|
3
|
SDP
|
22
|
30
|
36
|
28
|
56.3%
|
24
|
83
|
0.48
|
12
|
73.4%
|
8
|
1.29
|
15
|
3.80
|
10
|
Edge – LAD
It’s also pretty clear that the Dodgers had the better pen last season. The Dodger’s bullpen looks solid again this season. They have some solid multi-inning weapons like Ryan Yarbrough and Michael Grove, but they do need to get Brusdar Graterol healthy. He’s dealing with shoulder discomfort and hip tightness and won't travel to South Korea. Graterol finally avoided the IL last season, tossing a career-high 67.1 innings over 68 games. It was the best season of his career, with 4 wins, 7 saves and 19 holdss, along with elite ratios. Graterol's 1.24 ERA was 2nd best among qualified relievers and his 63.8% GB rate was 4th. While he didn't strike out that many batters (18.7%), he avoided hard contact with a high-velocity sinker that he threw 43.6% of the time. Graterol was dominant in the second half, giving up just one run over 28.1 innings (0.32 ERA) after the All-Star break and he closed out the season on a 24-game scoreless streak. Graterol will hopefully be one of the Dodgers' highest-leveraged relievers. If he can stay healthy, this should again be a good bullpen.
In their bullpen, the Padres will rely heavily on some young arms not used to pitching in high leverage situation. They signed Yuki Matsui out of Japan after he posted a 2.43 ERA in 704 career innings in the NPB. Robert Suarez pitched well in 2022, but was limited to just 27.2 innings in 2023. Enyel De Los Santos slides in for Scott Barlow after he was traded to the Guardians. Wandy Peralta came over from the Yankees and Woo-Suk Go from the KBO. There are several new pieces here and how good this pen will be is still unclear.
Offenses
Team
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SB
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
0.341
|
2
|
116
|
3
|
0.197
|
2
|
10.2%
|
2
|
105
|
19
|
6.1
|
9
|
21.5%
|
10
|
SD
|
0.323
|
12
|
107
|
7
|
0.170
|
10
|
10.6%
|
1
|
137
|
9
|
5.5
|
10
|
21.2%
|
7
|
Edge – LAD
Last season, the Dodgers’ offense ranked 2nd with a .341 wOBA and 3rd with a 116 wRC+. They were also 2nd in HRs. This season, 31-year-old Mookie Betts will attempt to play SS because Gavin Lux apparently couldn’t. Betts led the team last season with a .416 wOBA and 167 wRC+. He also hit 39 HRs.
34-yeaR-OLD 1b Freddie Freeman was right behind Betts, posting a stellar 410 and 163 wRC+ with 29 HRs,102 RBI and 131 runs scored. He also stole 23 bases.
Despite an already stacked lineup, the Dodgers added the reigning AL MVP, 29-year-old OF/DH and P Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani, won’t pitch this season because of Tommy John surgery, but he will be the team’s DH after posting a league leading .433 wOBA and 180 wRC+ with 44 HRs, 95 RBIs and 92 runs scored in what was a career year for him.
The rest of the lineup consists of supporting players who also happen to be pretty damned good. 34-year-old OF Jason Heyward produced a ,348 wOBA and 121 wRC+ over 124 games. C Will Smith contributed a .345 wOBA and 119 wRC+ along with 19 HRs, 76 RBIs and 80 runs scored. 26-year-old OF James Outman delivered a .344 wOBA and 118 wRC+ with 23 HRs, 70 RBIs and 86 runs scored and 1B/3B Max Muncy chipped in a .334 wOBA and 112 wRC+ with 36 HRd, 105 RBIs and 95 runs scored.
As if that wasn’t enough, the Dodgers also added 31-year-old OF Teoscar Hernandez. He gives the Dodgers yet another solid bat. Hernandez hit at least 25 HRs in each of the last four seasons. His 317 wOBA and 105 wRC+ with the Mariners last season, when he admittedly had trouble picking up the ball at T- Mobile Park, was well below what he did in each of the previous three seasons in Toronto. This season, he finds himself in a much friendlier park with substantially more protection around him in the lineup.
Despite 26-year-old 2B Gavin Lux’s defensive liabilities that led to Betts moving to SS, Lux’s bat could still contribute. Before missing most of the 2023 season because of a serious knee injury, Lux did post a .328 wOBA and a 114 wRC+ in 2022. Projection systems are all over the place on Lux, but as the #9 hitter in a very potent lineup he could be league average or better, and If he isn’t, there are veterans on the bench and a few other noteworthy prospects like 23-year-old OF Andy Pages and 23-year-old SS Trey Sweeney just waiting for a shot.
That my friends is one hell of an impressive supporting cast! As good as last season’s lineup was, this one should be even better.
As for the Padres, With all due respect to Blake Snell and Josh Hader, it’s the absence of OFJuan Soto that will hurt most. The 25-year-old Soto posted an impressive .395 wOBA and 155 wRC+ over 162 games with 36 HRs, 109 RBIs and 97 runs scored, as well as an 18.6% walk rate. No other Padre hitter came close to those numbers. With Soto leading the way, the Padres offense posted a 12th ranked .323 wOBA and a 7th ranked 107 wRC+ last season, despite playing their home games at spacious Petco Park, which punishes offenses. They also led the league with a 10.6% walk rate.
Now Soto will be holding court in the Bronx, wearing Yankee pinstripes after the Padres traded him to the Yankees along with Trent Grisham, who delivered a .299 wOBA and 91 wRC+ with a 13.5% walks rate. Besides Soto and Grisham the Padres also lost Matt Carpenter who’s subpar .293 wOBA and 86 wRC+ departed in free agency. The Padres should still be a decent offense even without Soto. After all, they still have Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., as well as top prospect Jackson Merril, so this lineup is far from devoid of talent, but replacing a player like Soto is damned near impossible. The Padres ceiling has to be lowered.
As mentioned, the Padres will still have Bogaerts, Machado and Tatis, who should all put up above average numbers, but they’ll all need to better than they were last season.
The 31-year-old former SS Bogaerts will move to 2B this season while Ha-Seong Kim takes over at SS. Bogaerts posted a 343 wOBA and 120 wRC+ over 155 games last season, his lowest marks since 2017.
31-year- old 3B Machado (elbow) will open the season as the team's DH, at least during its March 20-21 series in South Korea. Last season, Machado chipped in a .334 wOBA and a 114 wRC+ over 133 games with 30 HRs and 91 RBIs.
LF Tatis will be looking to build on his solid-but not elite 2023 season in which he posted a .332 wOBA and 113 wRC+ with 25 HRs, 78 RBI and 29 stolen bases while playing in a career-high 141 games.
New SS, 28-year-old Ha-Seong Kim is shifting to SS this season after winning a Gold Glove at 2B in 2023, while contributing a 130 wOBA and 112 wRC+ with a 12% walk rate.
Top prospect 20-year-old Jackson Merrill will make his major-league debut in CF Wednesday against the Dodgers. The 6-foot-3 lefty split his age-20 season between High-A an Aam combining for 15 HRs and 15 steals in 114 games between the two last season. His 12.1% K rate was exceptional for a prospect of his caliber Merrill has a chance to be a good hitter with above-average power potential and lacks any pronounced lefty/righty splits. He's also a decent athlete who could deliver double-digit steals. Merrill played the vast majority of his games at SS, but he also saw 5 games in LF, 2 games at 2B and 1 at 1B. CF might be a stretch and Merrill's most natural positions are already spoken for, there should be room for him somewhere in this lineup.
There are holes in this Padres’ lineup. The OF positions are still pretty wide-open beyond Tatis and bench depth is lacking. What I am comfortable saying is that this offense is definitely worse without Soto than it was last season, but if Tatis, Machado, and Bogaerts all rebound and if Merroll hits as well as projected, the Padres could surprise.
Conclusion: Based on last season’s stats, it’s clear that the Dodgers should have the better starting pitcher, bullpen and offense. At 37, with a history of elbow problems as well a decline in performance, I no longer have confidence in Yu Darvish. While once an elite pitcher, his better days are probably in the rear-view mirror. I love Tyler Glasnow’s stuff. Based on his track record, durability is a valid concern, but right now, he’s healthy and has pitched extremely well this spring. The Dodgers should be better than last season and the Padres should be worse. All indicators here point in the same direction.
PICK – ML Parlay - LAD 1st 5 ML + LAD full game ML (+127 for 2 units)
BOL all!