309 UL Lafayette (-3) over UAB
This line opened at Lafayette +1.5 now betting them at -3 but I still see value on this line as I have Lafayette 5 points better. The Ragin Cajuns come into this matchup owning the rest advantage with playing their last game 8 days ago while UAB played their last game 5 days ago. UAB is 4-1 but their 4 wins have not come against any good teams while their one loss was against a Miami team by 17 that could’ve won by more if they opened up more of their playbook. ULL on the other hand is 3-1 while playing tougher competition. They beat Iowa St that would later beat Oklahoma and they lost by 3 to Coastal Carolina who’s ranked in the top 25. I also have ULL power rated the 2nd best team in the Sun Belt while UAB is the 5th best power rated team in the Conference USA and the Sun Belt Conference is power rated slightly better.
317 Norte Dame (-10) over Pittsburgh
I have Norte Dame 11 points better so I like this number up to 11.5. Norte Dame is winning games by 3 touchdowns. Last week as 16 point favorites against Louisville they only won by 5 but dominated in the stats by nearly out gaining Louisville by 100 yards, having 10 more first downs and having the ball for at least 10 more minutes so i think they were looking ahead to this weeks matchup and will look to be more aggressive.
319 Alabama (-21.5) over Tennessee
Alabama has been winning games by an average of 19.8 PPG compared to Tennessee who has an average margin of victory of-5.8 and failing to meet expectations ATS with a point differential of -7.6. The line moved 1.5 point in Alabama’s favor but I like Bama by at least 4 touchdowns. Mac Jones is playing at a high level and I don’t think Tennessee has the type of offense that can keep up with this high scoring attack full of NFL talent.
330 Miami (-12.5) over Virginia
Miami has the best record ATS in the ACC going 4-1 while exceeding expectations ATS with a point differential of +6.3 while Virginia has failed to meet expectations ATS with a point differential of of -3.8. Line opened at -10.5 and is now 12.5 but I think Miami wins by at least 3 touchdowns. Virginia has a weak passing offense with only having a 5.6 YPA average so Miami’s defense should be able to shut down the running game as they only allow 84 rushing yards at home (allowed 22 last week) and force Virginia in 3rd and long situations.
338 Indiana (+6) over Penn St
Since James Franklin became the head coach at Penn St in 2014 they’ve only covered the spread 48.1% of the time in away games winning by 6.6 PPG. In their last 2 matchups Indiana has covered both games and outgained them in yardage 1016-701 and the difference in last years game was Penn St being +1 in the turnover battle. This should be another tough game as Indiana will be looking to end a 6 game losing streak to Penn St.
342 Ohio St. (-26.5) over Nebraska
The Big Ten committee did them no favors by scheduling the best team in the Conference and one of the top 2 teams in college football. With a young team in Nebraska that’s still in rebuilding mood up against an Ohio St team that has goals of winning the CFB championship this should be a mismatch. I have Ohio St power rated 18 points better than the 2nd Place team in the Big Ten and I have them 1 point better than Clemson. This line opened at 24.5 but I have Ohio St. 5-6 touchdowns better.