Interested to hear thoughts on the upcoming UFC event this Saturday on Fight Island in Abu Dhabi.
It has easily the most anticipated fight of this whacko year and one of the top Lightweight title bouts in UFC history, with undefeated Lightweight champ Khabib Nurmagomedov taking on interim lightweight titleholder Justin Gaethje.
Nurmagomedov has literally been unstoppable throughout his career, with 28 consecutive victories in a run that includes lopsided beatings to Conor McGregor, Edson Barboza, Michael Johnson, and Rafael Dos Anjos. Though his striking has improved considerably over the course of his career, the 32-year-old champ is a grappler first, foremost, and always, using his incredible blend of technique, strength, control, and relentlessness to rag doll the opposition into submission, sometimes literally.
Gaethje has nine post-fight bonuses in seven UFC appearances, which is the absolute quickest way to explain what you get from him whenever he steps into the cage. He’s rebounded from consecutive losses to Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier to deliver four straight victories; three first-round finishes and a great fight against Tony Ferguson at UFC 249 in May that is still the single best individual performance this year.
Khabib is currently listed as a $335 favorite while Gaethje is a +$270 dog. Over/Under for Round betting hasn’t been released yet. I do think that Gaethje does have a shot here, also going to wait till the Round O/U’s are released.
The co-main event is also an excellent bout as Robert Whittaker takes on Jared Cannonier. Whittaker is coming off of a decision win over Darren Till in his last fight to bounce back from losing his middleweight belt by TKO to Israel Adesanya. As for Cannonier, he has won three straight fights and has gotten himself in the title picture at 185lbs Cannonier has looked excellent lately, but Whittaker is still the former champion and deserves more respect than this opening betting line. Personally, I would lean Whittaker as the slight favorite to get his hand raised.
Odds opened at Jared Cannonier -145 & Robert Whittaker +115, but that has since dropped to Cannonier-118 & Whittaker-106.
At heavyweight, two of the big boys go at is as Alexander Volkov takes on Walt Harris. Volkov is coming off of a decision loss to Curtis Blaydes, but he showed in that fight that he can go a full, hard 25 minutes. The same can’t be said for Harris, who suffered a TKO loss to Alistair Overeem in his last fight. That was a fight Harris was winning until he started gassing badly in the second round. Harris could catch Volkov in the first round, but Volkov should have the edge otherwise.
Odds have pretty much remained the same as the Opener with Alexander Volkov -175 and Walt Harris +145.
I’ll finish with this: Way down on the prelims, I’m really liking this catchweight bout between Casey Kenney and Nate Wood. Kenney just fought a few weeks ago and looked dominant as he defeated Heili Alateng by a lopsided decision. The same can also said for Wood, who looked sharp against John Castenada. Both guys are excellent up and comers and this should be a great fight, but I think based on how he’s looked recently I have to favor Kenney to be the winner here. I also like Alex Oliveira in the prelims, and took him at -139 for 2 units.
Here’s the rest of the cards lineup with Opening/Current lines.
Phil Hawes -340/-278
Jacob Malkoun +260/+215
Lauren Murphy -350/-275
Liliya Shakirova +250/+200
Magomed Ankalaev -340/-295
Ion Cutelaba +260/+225
Stefan Struve -130/-125
Tai Tuivasa +100/+100
Alex Oliveira -150/-139
Shavkat Rakhmonov +130/+115
Da Un Jung -600/-360
Sam Alvey +400/+275
Miranda Maverick -140/-345 (Don’t know what caused this jump, but -140 was the Opener)
Liana Jojua +110/+260
Casey Kenney -145/-190
Nathaniel Wood +115/+150
Joel Alvarez -285/-182
Alexander Yakovlev +205/+150
I’ll post the Round O/U’s when they’re released, or anyone feel free to post if you get them before I do. I’ll also post up my final card for the event.