For what it’s worth, what a difference a day can make. Yesterday, I was bemoaning the fact that that the month of May had not been kind to me this season, and then out of nowhere, I just couldn’t lose. Almost everything went as expected! How often does that ever happen? When the smoke cleared, six of my seven parlay legs had cashed and the 7th pushed. I was suddenly up +41.40 units for the day, leaving me +18.48 units for the for the season. That’s one hell of a bounce-back!
The Twins got a strong outing from ace Pablo Lopez, who gave up 5 hits but just 1 run over 6 innings with 8 Ks in a 3-1 win over the Red Sox and cashing my 1st 5..
The Pirates, who got off to a fast start this season, but have struggled since, evened up their series against the wretched Rockies this weekend. They lost on Friday and were in danger of losing again yesterday, but after a scoreless 1st 5 innings that got me a push and a soreless 6th, 7th and 8th, they pulled out a 1-0 win in the bottom of the 9th on a walk-off single by PH Jack Suwinski. Pirates SP Jared Jones was tremendous, tossing 7 shutout innings and giving up just one hit while striking out 10.
The Blue Jays got a fine outing from ace Kevin Gausman, who scattered 3 hit over 5.1 scoreless innings in a 6-3 Jays win over the Nats and cashed my 1st 5.
The Phils got a solid, but not great, outing from Ranger Suarez who gave up 3 runs o 7 hits with 8 Ks, but it didn’t matter as the Phils jumped all over young Keaton Winn for 5 runs in the 1st and rolled to a 14-3 blowout win over the Giants and cashing both my 1st 5 and full games.
Finally, the Dodgers goy another fine outing from SP Tyker Glasnow, who gave up just 2 runs and 5 hits over 7 innings as the Dodgers beat up on Bryce Elder and the Braves pen in an 11-2 blowout of the Braves.
It’s been a struggle, but I still trust my process and I’m just doing what has always worked for me
Today we have a full slate of games with mostly day games and there are a few that I think I like, so let’s get right to it. Here’s my card. No parlays today.
Sides
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
|
-108
|
2
|
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
|
-107
|
2
|
|
ATL 1st 5 RL
|
|
-100
|
2
|
|
ATL ML
|
|
-1245
|
2
|
|
CIN 1st 5 ML
|
|
-125
|
2
|
|
SDL 1st 5
|
|
-103
|
2
|
|
SD ML
|
|
101
|
2
|
|
SF 1st5 ML
|
|
-118
|
2
|
Sunday is the day our family gets together and treasdue that time. I won’t have that much time for breakdowns, so here’s the abbreviated version of how I see things shaking out today. It went well yesterday and hopefully I can string together a second winning day.
DET @ NYY
The 18-15 Tigers have now dropped the first two games of this series at the 22-13 Yankees, losing 5-3 yesterday after a 2-1 loss on Friday.
Starting Pitchers
1:35
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
DET
|
Skubal - L
|
|
(5/6)
|
(1/6)
|
0.74
|
1.72
|
2.19
|
2.18
|
2.75
|
2.71
|
0.198
|
0.239
|
29.7%
|
4.3%
|
NYY
|
Cortes - L
|
|
(3/7)
|
(4/7)
|
1.10
|
3.86
|
2.77
|
3.49
|
3.95
|
3.89
|
0.288
|
0.269
|
21,5%
|
4.1%
|
Edge – DET
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1srt 5 only bet
Offenses
Edge – NYY
Conclusion: The Yanks are the clearly better hitting team her. The Tigers’ only edge is that they run the bases better. However, the starting pitching matchup is also a mismatch. Tarik Skubal is an elite starting pitcher and he’s having a great season, while Nestor Cortes has struggled. Skubals stat profile is simply much better across the board than or Cortes’. The Yanks are the better team, but Skubal is the better starting pitcher.
Pick - DET 1st 5 ML in a side bet
SEA @ HOU
The 18-15 Mariners split the first two games of this series at the 12-21 Astros, shutting out the Astros 5-0 last night behind a stellar outing by Logan Gilbert, after losing the first game of this series 5-3 on Friday.
Starting Pitchers
2:10
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
SEA
|
Miller - R
|
|
(4/6)
|
(2/6)
|
0.88
|
2.04
|
3.90
|
3.79
|
3.43
|
3.34
|
0.246
|
0.316
|
22.2%
|
4.8%
|
HTN
|
Brown - R
|
|
(1/6)
|
(5/6)
|
2.22
|
9.78
|
5.04
|
5.70
|
4.19
|
4.49
|
4.520
|
0.354
|
20.9%
|
12.2%
|
Edge – SEA
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only bet
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
SEA
|
3.58
|
26
|
0.293
|
26
|
93
|
22
|
0.136
|
21
|
9.3%
|
10
|
-0.9
|
21
|
41.0%
|
4
|
7.6%
|
16
|
28.7%
|
30
|
HOU
|
4.58
|
15
|
0.333
|
5
|
117
|
4
|
0.154
|
10
|
8.2%
|
20
|
-4.4
|
30
|
40.9%
|
6
|
7.0%
|
20
|
16.6%
|
1
|
Edge – HOU
Conclusion: The Astros are the better hitting team here. They average a full run more per game with a 30 point better wOBa, a 24 point better wRC+ and n 19 point better ISO. They also strike out 12% less often. That leaves the two starting pitchers and that looks like a huge mismatch. Bryce Miller is having a fine season with four of his six starts grading as above average, a sub 1.00 WHIP, an ERA that’s barely over 2.00 and solid ERA metrics. By contrast, Hunter Brown has been awful with five of his six starts grading as below averagea WHIP that’s over 2.00, an ERA closer to 10.00 than 9.00, lousy ERA metrics and a very high walk rate. Miller’s stat profile is acrtoss the board better than Brown’s
Pick – SEA 1st5 ML in a side bet
ATL @ LAD
In this clash of two NL powerhouses, the 20-11 Braves have now lost the first two games of this series with the 22-13 Dodgers, a 14-2 blowout loss last night after a 4-3 loss in 11 innings on Friday.
Starting Pitchers
4:10
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
ATL
|
Fried - L
|
|
(3/6)
|
(3/6)
|
1.18
|
4.02
|
2.93
|
3.52
|
3.26
|
3.34
|
0.271
|
0.276
|
19.4%
|
8.5%
|
LAD
|
Paxton - L
|
|
(2/5)
|
(3/5)
|
1.68
|
3.51
|
6.16
|
5.55
|
6.20
|
6.81
|
0.335
|
0.385
|
13.2%
|
19.3%
|
Edge – AtL
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
ATL
|
9
|
5
|
9
|
4
|
74.3%
|
9
|
0.43
|
9
|
1.21
|
12
|
3.42
|
10
|
23.2%
|
13
|
7.2%
|
1
|
LAD
|
5
|
7
|
11
|
5
|
69.9%
|
16
|
0.48
|
13
|
1.14
|
9
|
3.58
|
11
|
21.3%
|
22
|
8.5%
|
9
|
Edge – ATL
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
ATL
|
5.41
|
1
|
0.342
|
2
|
118
|
3
|
0.166
|
2
|
8.4%
|
17
|
2.3
|
5
|
45.8%
|
1
|
9.0%
|
4
|
23.1%
|
18
|
LAD
|
5.36
|
2
|
0.348
|
1
|
126
|
1
|
0.166
|
2
|
10.6%
|
2
|
0.2
|
11
|
44.9%
|
2
|
9.3%
|
2
|
21.2%
|
12
|
Edge – LAD, but extremely close.
Conclusion: It’s no secret that I don’t think much of the Dodger bullpen. It’s simply hasn’;t been very good. The Braves pen is far from elite, but statistically it profiles a lot better than the Dodger pen does. When I first looked at this game what jumped out to me was that these are the two best offenses in baseball. Statistically the Dodgers have hit a little better, but it’s so damned close, or at least it was until last night. Still, it’s hard to really give either much of an edge. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and I give the edge to the Braves’ Max Fried over the Dodgers’ James Paxton. The only question with Fried is his healthy and right now, he looks very healthy. Fried is coming off back to back quality starts and has three in his last four outinghis best outing of the season, His WHIP is solid, but his ERA is mediocre, but all his ERA metrics are a half to a fll run mower, telling me that Fried’s eRA should be at least half a run lower. Paxton hasn’t been all that impressive with three of his five starts grading as below average. His wHIP is very high, but his ERA is strangely OK, depite ERA metrics tjhat are all two to three runs higher than his ERA. That tells me Paxton has some major regression comin g. For explanation look no further than a whopping 19.3% walk rate that is 6% higher than his K rate. Fried has the much better stat profile and seems to be trending in the right direction. I see the Braves pulling out all stops here to avoid the sweep. This full game ML has gone up about 20cents since I bet it last night.
Pick – ATL 1st 5 and full game MLs in side bets
BALT @ CIN
The 22-11 Orioles beat the 16-17 Reds 2-1 last night behind a stellar outing from John Means, who was making his season debut after a stint on the IL. He tossed 7 shutout innings, scattering 3 hits while striking out 8. The O’s also wone the first game of the series 3-0 on Friday.
Starting Pitchers
4:10
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
BALT
|
Kremer - R
|
|
(2/6)
|
(4/6)
|
1.08
|
4.19
|
5.70
|
5.23
|
3.89
|
3.85
|
0.303
|
0.373
|
22.1%
|
7.1%
|
CIN
|
Lodolo - L
|
|
(3/4)
|
(1/4)
|
0.88
|
1.88
|
3.13
|
2.22
|
2.83
|
2.59
|
0.240
|
0.285
|
33.0%
|
6.4%
|
Edge – CIN
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 bet only
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BALT
|
5.12
|
4
|
0.334
|
4
|
119
|
2
|
0.196
|
1
|
6.9%
|
28
|
4.4
|
2
|
43.8%
|
3
|
10.2%
|
1
|
21.4%
|
13
|
CIN
|
4.58
|
14
|
0.303
|
22
|
88
|
24
|
0.157
|
8
|
9.5%
|
9
|
6.0
|
1
|
39.5%
|
12
|
8.4%
|
6
|
26.4%
|
27
|
Edge – BALT
Conclusion: The Orioles are the better team here. They ae the better hitting team for sure, but the starting pitching matchup, on he other hand points to the Reds. Deran Kremeris as mediocre as they come with four of his six starts grading as below average. That’s particularly true when you compare him to Nick Lodolo. Three of Lodolo’s four starts this season graded as above average with a sub 1.00 WHIP, a sub 2.00 ERA and ERA metrics that are mostly in the 2s. Lodolo’s 33% K rate is erlite and his walk rate is solid. His stat profile is simply better across the boad than Kremer’s.
Pick – CIN 1st 5 ML
SD @ ARIZ
The 18-18 Padres blew out the reeling 14-20 Diamondbacks 13-1 last night behind a strong outing by Michael King and four hits from newly acquired Luis Araez in his Padres’ debut. The Padres have now won the first two games of this series in the desert winning 7-1 on Friday night and will be looking for the sweep today.
Starting Pitchers
4:10
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
(8/32)
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
SD
|
Waldron - R
|
|
(3/6)
|
(3/6)
|
1.35
|
4.35
|
4.33
|
4.05
|
4.30
|
4.25
|
0.321
|
0.331
|
19.7%
|
7.3%
|
ARIZ
|
Nelson - R
|
|
(1/4)
|
(3/4)
|
1.53
|
4.60
|
4.07
|
4.11
|
4.40
|
4.33
|
0.345
|
0.322
|
18.3%
|
7.0%
|
Edge – SD
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
SD
|
7
|
5
|
10
|
4
|
70.1%
|
15
|
0.50
|
17
|
1.26
|
14
|
4.01
|
17
|
21.7%
|
19
|
8.3%
|
5
|
ARIZ
|
4
|
8
|
6
|
8
|
65.4%
|
24
|
0.56
|
21
|
1.37
|
20
|
4.34
|
20
|
18.7%
|
28
|
11.3%
|
26
|
Edge SD
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
SD
|
4.79
|
9
|
0.318
|
11
|
109
|
8
|
0.145
|
16
|
8.9%
|
12
|
0.6
|
9
|
38.6%
|
16
|
7.8%
|
14
|
20.1%
|
7
|
ARIZ
|
5.06
|
6
|
0.323
|
9
|
106
|
10
|
0.145
|
16
|
9.6%
|
6
|
0.2
|
11
|
37.7%
|
20
|
7.8%
|
14
|
18.9%
|
3
|
Edge – None
Conclusion: Neither of these teams is hitting well and I see no real edge for either one. While I can’t say that the Padres bullpen is good, I can say that the Diamondback’s pen is really bad, much worse than the Padres’ pen. That brings us to the two starting pitchers. The best that I can say about the Padres’ Matt Waldron is that he hasn’t been bad, just very mediocre. Of those six starts, three graded as above average and three graded as below. The right-handed knuckleballer WHIP ERA and ERA metrics are also all equally mediocre. Nothing stands out here other that a very low 32% hard-hit rate. It’s tough to hit a knuckleball hard. By contrast, Ryne Nelson has been pretty bad. Nelson, who hasn’t pitched since April 18, was just activated from the IL (elbow). The right-hander hit the IL in mid-April after taking a comebacker off his pitching elbow, but he'll return today after skipping a rehab assignment. Nelson wasn’t very good before going down with just one of his five starts grading as above average with a high WHIP, ERA and ERA metrics. 53 WHIP and a 13/5 K/BB ratio in 15.2 innings this season. I’ll be very surprised if we get much from Nelson today
Pick – SD 1st 5 and full game MLs in side bets
SF @ PHIL
The 15-19 Giants got mauled 14-3 by the 21-11 Phils last night. The Phils, who won the first game of this series 4-2 on Friday, suddenly find themselves at the top of1.5 games ahead of the Braves in the NL East.
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
Webb - R
|
|
(5/7)
|
(2/7)
|
1.30
|
2.98
|
4.44
|
2.82
|
3.23
|
3.39
|
0.299
|
`.335
|
17.1%
|
5.7%
|
Walker - R
|
|
(0/1)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Edge – SF
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only bet
Edge- None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
SF
|
3.78
|
21
|
0.304
|
20
|
98
|
16
|
0.134
|
24
|
8.3%
|
18
|
0.1
|
14
|
40.3%
|
7
|
6.0%
|
27
|
22.0%
|
15
|
PHIL
|
4.66
|
13
|
0.331
|
6
|
111
|
7
|
0.164
|
6
|
9.6%
|
6
|
0.5
|
10
|
39.8%
|
8
|
7.5%
|
18
|
21.9%
|
14
|
Edge – PHIL
Conclusion: The Phiils are the better hitting team her. Loook no further than last night’s mauling of the Giants. However, the starting pitching matchup is a different story. Logan Webb has pitched most very well for the Giants with five of his seven starts grading as above average. Webb’s wHIP is OKK and his ERA is under 3.00. Webb’s ERA metrics are all solid. By contrast, in his one start this season, Taijuan Walker gave up 6 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks over 6.1 innings while striking out 4. I can’t trust Walker right now, not off that performance.
Pick – SF 1st 5 ML in a side bet.