For what it’s worth, yesterday was an embarrassingly bad day for me. Very little went right and almost everything else that could go wrong did.
On the plus side, the Orioles managed to hang on to a 2-1 despite virtually no offense, thanks to another solid outing by Corbin Burnes, the only reliable starting pitcher that the O’s have. The Braves spotted the Guardian an early 1-0 lead but roared back with 3 runs in the 4th on the way to a 6-2 win. That’s it for pluses.
On the minus side, The Orioles bullpen manage to blow a 2-1 lead in the 9th and lost the game 2-1 in the 10th. The Rays got blown out by the now 4-22 White Sox in an embarrassing loss that highlights just how far this once proud franchise has fallen. The Cards beat the Mets 4-2, jumping all over Jose Butto in the first 3 innings. The Diamondbacks’ aceZac Gallen fell behind 2-0 and the Dbacks never caught up. The funny thing is, the only pick I had reservations about was the Mets pick. I probably should have passed on that one, but I would play everything else again today, It was just one of those nights.
It was horrible! I finished -21.90 units, leaving me ( and I’m embarrassed to admit it) -16.58 units for the season.
I’m just going to keep doing what has always worked for me and hopefully I’ll pull out of this tailspin, like I always have.
Today is a new and beautiful day and the MLB season is still very young, so there’s plenty of time left to straighten this mess up. We have a full slate of games today and there are a few that I like, so let’s get to it. Here’s my card. I’m going right back to the parlays. Here’s how I see things shaking out today.
ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team #2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
HTN 1st 5 ML
|
161
|
2
|
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
STL 1st 5 ML
|
196
|
2
|
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
141
|
2
|
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
TB ML
|
138
|
2
|
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
141
|
2
|
|
LAD ML
|
HTN 1st 5 ML
|
161
|
2
|
|
LAD ML
|
STL 1st 5 ML
|
196
|
2
|
|
LAD ML
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
138
|
2
|
|
LAD ML
|
TB ML
|
141
|
2
|
|
LAD ML
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
168
|
2
|
|
STL 1st 5 ML
|
HTN 1st 5 ML
|
185
|
2
|
|
STL 1st 5 ML
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
132
|
2
|
|
STL 1st 5 ML
|
TB ML
|
130
|
2
|
|
STL 1st 5 ML
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
159
|
2
|
|
HTN 1st 5 ML
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
132
|
2
|
|
HTN 1st 5 ML
|
TB ML
|
130
|
2
|
|
HTN 1st 5 ML
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
155
|
2
|
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
139
|
2
|
|
TB ML
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
136
|
2
|
Here’s how I think things shake out today.
LAD @ TOR
The 17-11 Dodger blasted the 13-14 Blue Jays 12-2 in the first game of this series in Toronto.
Starting Pitcher
3:07
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
LAD
|
Glasnow - R
|
(5/6)
|
(1/6)
|
0.95
|
2.92
|
2.60
|
2.90
|
2.61
|
2.79
|
0.258
|
0.261
|
30.6%
|
6.3%
|
TOR
|
Kikuchi - L
|
(4/5)
|
(1/5)
|
1.08
|
2.28
|
2.89
|
2.56
|
2.77
|
2.94
|
0.261
|
0.275
|
29.7%
|
7.2%
|
Edge – LAD
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
LAD
|
5
|
6
|
10
|
3
|
67.0%
|
21
|
0.53
|
17
|
1.13
|
5
|
4.04
|
16
|
21.8%
|
19
|
8.5%
|
9
|
TOR
|
5
|
2
|
7
|
1
|
73.0%
|
13
|
0.55
|
20
|
1.33
|
20
|
4.85
|
26
|
20.8%
|
23
|
10.5%
|
19
|
Edge – LAD, mostly by default
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
LAD
|
5.46
|
4
|
0.348
|
2
|
122
|
3
|
0.165
|
6
|
10.7%
|
2
|
-0.3
|
16
|
39.4%
|
13
|
8.3%
|
6
|
23.0%
|
13
|
TOR
|
3.63
|
25
|
0.312
|
17
|
105
|
13
|
0.139
|
17
|
10.0%
|
6
|
-2.6
|
28
|
36.0%
|
25
|
5.8%
|
27
|
19.6%
|
25
|
Edge – LAD big
Conclusion: The Dodgers are an excellent hitting team. The Blue Jays used to be one too, but not since 2022. It’s time for me to forget how good they were back then abd focus on how mediocre they’ve been since. The Dodgers are the better hitting team. The Dodgers also have the better starting pitcher. I know that that their statistical profiles shows this to be an even matchup, but I’m just not buying it. Both guys are having a great season, but they aren’t equal. The only thing separting Glasnow from greatness in health, and he;s healthy now. Kikuchi is pitching better than he ever has, but his entire career profile says he;s never been that good. He will regress. This is also a rare occasion when the Dodgers might actually has the better pen. Neither is very good and I don’t trust either one, but the Dodger pen is at least as good as the Jays pen any maybe a little bit better.
Pick – LAD 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
STL @ NYM
The 11-14 Cards, after taking two of three from the Diamondbacks, had the day off to travel to Queens to face the 13-11 Mets who return from a seven game road trip after splitting four games with the Dodgers and then droppig two of three to the Giants.
Starting Pitchers
4:07
|
SP
|
GS +
|
(8/32)
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
STL
|
Gray - R
|
(3/3)
|
(0/3)
|
0.87
|
1.04
|
1.63
|
0.66
|
1.77
|
1.85
|
0.223
|
0.206
|
35.9%
|
1.6%
|
NYM
|
Houser - R
|
(2/4)
|
(2/4)
|
1.76
|
7.45
|
5.68
|
5.05
|
5.95
|
6.03
|
0.360
|
0.373
|
13.6%
|
15.6%
|
Edge – STL
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only bet
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
STL
|
3.48
|
27
|
0.289
|
27
|
84
|
26
|
0.117
|
27
|
9.2%
|
12
|
0.3
|
14
|
39.1%
|
16
|
5.9%
|
24
|
22.1%
|
16
|
NYM
|
4.71
|
10
|
0.321
|
10
|
106
|
12
|
0.139
|
17
|
9.0%
|
14
|
-1.1
|
22
|
36.0%
|
25
|
6.5%
|
18
|
19.1%
|
26
|
Edge – NYM
Conclusion: After what I saw last night, I’m not sure there’s all that much difference between these two teams. However, I an absolutely certain that there is a world of difference between these two pitchers and that’s what I’m betting on here. Sonny Grady is elite and Adrian Houser is, at best, mediocre. I’ll lay the half a run for five innings.
Pick – STL1st 5 ML in a series of parlays
HOU @ COL
The 7-19 Astros will will face of with the 7-19 Rockies at Coors tonight after both getting a rare Friday nifgr off last night.
Starting Pitcher
6:05
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HTN
|
Blanco - R
|
(4/4)
|
(0/4)
|
0.85
|
1.33
|
2.05
|
3.31
|
4.42
|
4.50
|
0.195
|
0.232
|
21.6%
|
11.8%
|
COL
|
Quantrill - R
|
(2/5
|
(3/5)
|
1.48
|
4.33
|
3.98
|
5.27
|
5.20
|
0.34
|
0.335
|
0.32
|
12.7%
|
10.2%
|
Edge – HTN
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 bet only
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
HOU
|
3.92
|
20
|
0.328
|
6
|
115
|
4
|
0.142
|
14
|
8.2%
|
22
|
-3.8
|
29
|
33.2%
|
30
|
6.7%
|
17
|
17.2%
|
30
|
COL
|
3.65
|
23
|
0.302
|
22
|
75
|
28
|
0.132
|
23
|
7.1%
|
27
|
-2.4
|
27
|
40.9%
|
4
|
6.3%
|
21
|
26.3%
|
4
|
Edge – None
Conclusion: It sure looks like we have wo bad teams facing off in this one. The Stats say the Astros offense is a little better, but at Coors, I’m not sure about that. Botjh bullpens stink as well. That leaves the two starting pitchers. Ronell Blanco has pitched surprisingly well this season. Cal Quantrill has never pitched well and this season is no exception. I’m not yet sold on Blaco, but he sure looks better than Quantrill ever has.
Pick – HTN 1st 5 ML in a series of parlays
TB @ CHI WS
In a shocker, the 13-14 Rays got blown out by the now 4-22 Whitee Sox, the worst team in baseball. It can’t get any worse for the Rays.
Starting Pitchers
7:40
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
TB
|
Civale - R
|
(3/5)
|
(2/5)
|
1.23
|
3.90
|
3.04
|
4.22
|
3.37
|
3.43
|
0.303
|
0.282
|
26.7%
|
7.8%
|
CHI WS
|
Cannon - R
|
(1/2)
|
(1/2)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Edge – TB
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
TB
|
7
|
5
|
8
|
7
|
65.8%
|
25
|
0.67
|
28
|
1.45
|
25
|
5.31
|
28
|
20.3%
|
24
|
11.6%
|
29
|
CHI WS
|
1
|
8
|
3
|
6
|
70.3%
|
16
|
0.62
|
26
|
1.49
|
26
|
4.28
|
22
|
20.0%
|
25
|
11.4%
|
28
|
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
TB
|
3.96
|
20
|
0.298
|
24
|
99
|
18
|
0.118
|
26
|
6.5%
|
30
|
1.5
|
6
|
39.8%
|
10
|
5.7%
|
28
|
24.5%
|
10
|
CHI WS
|
2.24
|
30
|
0.255
|
30
|
62
|
30
|
0.103
|
30
|
7.9%
|
25
|
-1.9
|
25
|
40.2%
|
7
|
5.1%
|
30
|
25.4%
|
7
|
Edge – TB
Conclusion: The Rays are not a good hitting team and they proved it again last night. Hell, they couldn’t hit Chris Fleen. The Rays are actually a lousy one, but as bad as the Rays have hit, the White Sox (last night notwithstanding) have been worse. They ranked dead last in runs per game, wOBA, wRC+ and ISO heading into last night’s game. That my friends is the definition of really bad. The Rays stink, but they still usually hit better than the pathetic White Sox. Both bullpens are bad and neither can be trusted. Hower, of the two starting pitcher, the Rays should have a clear edge with Aaron Civale. Civale is another of what I’d call a solid middle to back end of the rotation guy. Jonathan Cannon has only made two starts. He was good in the first one v the Royals giving up just 1 run on 3 hits and 1 walk over 5 innings. However in the other at the Twins, he got lit up for 6 runs on 9 hts and a walk over 3.2 inning. Cannon is a GB specialist, who lacks a plus pitch, but his sinker/slider combination is designed to generate GBs and weak contact. Testerday on their website FanGraphs asked the question, can the White Sox lose 120 games? I say yes. I’m just fading the White Sox. It didn’t work last night, but it will win a lot more than it loses. The White Sox have won a total of 4 games so far. I just don’t see them winning two in a row even against the Rays.
Pick – TB 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
PHIL @ SD
The 17-10 Phils won the first game of this series with the 14-15 Pades 9-3 last night at Petco.
Starting Pitchers
9:40
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
PHIL
|
Suarez - L
|
(5/5)
|
(0/5)
|
0.70
|
1.36
|
1.89
|
2.53
|
2.50
|
2.53
|
0.259
|
0.198
|
27.1%
|
4.2%
|
SD
|
Cease - R
|
(5/5)
|
(0/5)
|
0.74
|
1.82
|
2.93
|
2.33
|
3.57
|
3.29
|
0.194
|
0.271
|
31.3%
|
9.8%
|
Edge None
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only bet
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
PHI
|
4.52
|
13
|
0.316
|
14
|
98
|
20
|
0.143
|
11
|
9.5%
|
10
|
0.4
|
13
|
39.3%
|
15
|
5.9%
|
24
|
22.5%
|
15
|
SD
|
4.90
|
9
|
0.326
|
8
|
111
|
6
|
0.143
|
11
|
9.7%
|
9
|
0.7
|
11
|
35.5%
|
27
|
7.0%
|
15
|
18.9%
|
28
|
Edge – SD slight
Conclusion: The Phils struggled to hit early in the season , but have rack up 65 run in their last 10 game, so while the stats say that the Padres are the better hitting team, I wouldn’t count on it. Frankly I don’t see many rungs getting scored early in this on. We have two fine starting pitchers, who are both on major rolls. I’m not good at total, but this looks like a no brainer.
Puck – 1st 5 Under 4 in a side bet
ARIZ @ SEA
The 12-15 Diamondbacks were beaten 6-1 by the 14-12 Mariners 6-1 in Seattle last night.
Starting Pitchers
9:40
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
ARIZ
|
Cecconi - R
|
(1/1)
|
(0/1)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SEA
|
Kirby - R
|
-3.5
|
(2/5)
|
1.30
|
5.33
|
3.70
|
2.59
|
3.41
|
3.32
|
0.331
|
0.309
|
23.7%
|
2.7%
|
Edge -SEA
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
ARIZ
|
2
|
8
|
5
|
6
|
65.4%
|
26
|
0.55
|
20
|
1.39
|
23
|
4.19
|
20
|
17.9%
|
30
|
9.3%
|
13
|
SEA
|
2
|
2
|
6
|
1
|
80.0%
|
3
|
0.34
|
5
|
1.03
|
1
|
2.49
|
3
|
24.9%
|
8
|
8.1%
|
3
|
Edge – SEA
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
ARIZ
|
5.73
|
2
|
0.332
|
5
|
109
|
9
|
0.143
|
11
|
9.8%
|
8
|
0.2
|
15
|
34.6%
|
29
|
7.3%
|
13
|
17.9%
|
29
|
SEA
|
3.72
|
24
|
0.302
|
22
|
101
|
15
|
0.126
|
25
|
9.9%
|
7
|
-1.2
|
23
|
44.8%
|
2
|
7.1%
|
14
|
27.4%
|
2
|
Edge – ARIZ
Conclusion: After a slow start, the Mariners have clawed their way to the top of the suddenly mediocre AL West, while the Diamondbacks continue to flouder , hovering around .500. Although, it didn’t look that way last night, the stats say that the Mariners should be the better hitting team here. However, the Mariners have the much better pen and tonight the much better starting pitcher. George Kirby has been inconsistent with a mediocre WHIP and very high ERA, but his ERA metrics are all 2 full runs lower. He;s pitched much better than that ERA would suggest. What also stands out is a solid K rate and a miniscule walk rate. Kirby doesn’t bean himself. Slade Secconi (I love that name “Slade”) has only started one game, at the Giants, and he pitched well, giving up just 2 runs over 6 innings. He arrive with a solid pedigree as the 33rd overall pick of the 2020 Draft but hasn't beenable to produce notable numbers in the minors. Kirby is the proven commodity here and U’ll trust him to keep the Dbacks in check for 5 innings.
Pick – SEA 1st 5 ML in a series of parlays