For what it’s worth, in addition to being a crazy day fraught with Excel spreadsheet problems, yesterday was also a struggle with a couple of totally unexpected results. I somehow pushed a button that I shouldn’t have and totally screwed up one section of my Excel spreadsheet. I wasted over an hour fixing it, but I finally did, and in the process, I discovered that the parlay card that I posted was incomplete. I didn’t list the Braves 1st 5 and full game MLs, despite covering that game as well as all the others in my breakdowns. That too precious time away from my breakdowns.
The two big losers on my parlay card were the Phils, who pushed their first 5 and lost their full game to the Blue Jays, and the Rays, who lost their 1st 5 and full game to the White Sox, the worst team in baseball. I also lost a side bet on the Mariners, as Chris Paddack delivered a second consecutive strong outing while the Twins got to George Kirby for four early runs. Fortunately, I also had some winners on my parlay card, the Dodgers ML, the Orioles 1st 5 and full game MLs and the Braves 1st 5 and full game Mls. I also cashed two side bets of the Padres 1st 5 ML and the Yankees ML. well. I ended up -15.83 units for the day, leaving me +15.20 units for the season.
Today we have a small slate with very few games that I even think I like. That gave the time to update ny bullpen and offensive stats, so let’s get right to it. Here’s my very small card.
ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team #2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
SF ML
|
177
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
Side
|
STL 1st 5 ML
|
|
-125
|
2
|
Here are my thoughts on the two games that I’m playing today.
SF @ COL
The 17-21 Giants have already won the first two grams of this series at Coors Field against the 8-28 Rockies and will b loking to complete the sweep today.
Starting Pitchers
3:10
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
SF
|
Winn - R
|
|
(5/7)
|
(2/7)
|
1.13
|
4.41
|
4.41
|
3.95
|
3.68
|
3.79
|
0.294
|
0.333
|
20.4%
|
8.7%
|
COL
|
Quantrill - R
|
|
(3/7)
|
(4/7)
|
1.29
|
4.31
|
3.95
|
5.01
|
4.64
|
4.76
|
0.316
|
0.317
|
15.5%
|
8.3%
|
Edge – SF
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
SF
|
5
|
7
|
6
|
3
|
66.0%
|
29
|
0.60
|
25
|
1.42
|
26
|
5.01
|
29
|
22.3%
|
17
|
9.1%
|
10
|
COL
|
6
|
8
|
4
|
3
|
67.3%
|
24
|
0.59
|
22
|
1.41
|
22
|
4.78
|
26
|
18.5%
|
29
|
11.1%
|
26
|
Edge – None, both of the pens stink
Offenses
TEAM
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
SF
|
3.82
|
23
|
0.300
|
21
|
96
|
19
|
0.127
|
24
|
8.2%
|
22
|
-0.6
|
16
|
38.5%
|
14
|
6.1%
|
27
|
22.4%
|
13
|
COL
|
3.58
|
27
|
0.291
|
25
|
72
|
29
|
0.125
|
25
|
7.3%
|
27
|
-4.4
|
30
|
39.6%
|
11
|
7.0%
|
20
|
26.8%
|
29
|
Edge – SF
Conclusion: It’s hard to view either of these teams as good hitting. Neither is. The Giants do average about a quarter of a run more per game and that’s with playing their home games at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park, which ranks 26th in park factor. By contrast the Rockies play their home games including this on at Coors, the #1 rated park in terms of hitter friendliness. Both teams should benefir from the park fctor today. Both bullpen sti and I wouldn’t trust either one late in a close game. That brings us to the two starting pitchers. Young righty Keaton Winn got torched by the Phils in his last start at Citizens Bank Park, giving up 5 runs on 4 hits and 2 walk in just 0.2 innings. However, he has nonetheless delivered five above average starts in his seven outings to just two below average one. Despite a high ERA thanks mostly to that atrocious start in Philly, the rest of Winn’s stat profile is really quite good with a solid WHIP and ERA metrics tat are all lower than his bloated ERA. I put Cal Quantrill into the same category that our friend Top Gun put Kyle Freeland in. He’s usually so bad that he’s almost an auto-fade. Quantrill is actually coming off a rare great outing at the Pirates last week, but in the strt before that, the Astros lit him up at Coors for 6 runs on 6 hits (2 HRs) and 2 walks over 5 innings. Quantrill does have three start that graded as above average this season, but four that graded as below, including two at Coors. His WHIPand ERA are both decent, but his ERA metrics are mostly higher than Winn;s with a lower K rate. I expect that Winn bounces back from that bad outing in Philly against a Rockies offense that has stgruggled and I very much doubt that Quantrill strings together back-to-back good outings. I’ll ride the Giants in a same game parlay.
Pick – SF 1st 5 and full game ML in a ML parlay
STL @ MIL
The 15-21 Cards, who were rained out yesterday, traavel to American Family Field to take on the 21-15 Brewers. The Cards dropped two games to the Mets before the rains washed away the series finale yesterday. The Brewers return home after dropping two of three to the Royals at Kauffman Stadium.
Starting Pitchers
7:40
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
STL
|
Gray - R
|
|
(5/5)
|
(0/5)
|
0.86
|
0.89
|
2.33
|
1.56
|
2.24
|
2.36
|
0.218
|
0.246
|
33.3%
|
4.4%
|
MIL
|
Myers - R
|
|
(1/3)
|
(2/3)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Edge – STL big
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only bet
Offenses
TEAM
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
STL
|
3.50
|
29
|
0.286
|
28
|
86
|
25
|
0.122
|
26
|
9.0%
|
12
|
0.3
|
11
|
36.0%
|
26
|
6.3%
|
24
|
22.9%
|
15
|
MIL
|
4.92
|
9
|
0.332
|
3
|
114
|
6
|
0.160
|
7
|
9.6%
|
6
|
4.1
|
4
|
40.3%
|
8
|
8.3%
|
8
|
23.6%
|
20
|
Edge – MIL big
Conclusion: There’s no question in my mind that the Brewers are better than the Cards. For starters, the hit a hell of a lot better than the Card, averaging well over a full run more with a 46-point better wOBA and a 28-point better wRC+. It
S not relevant for this better, but they also havce the better bullpen. All that given, the Cards have one big edge going for them in this game and that’s Sonny Gray. Gray has been amazing with all five of his starts this season grading as above average. Gray has given up a total of 6 runs (3 earned) on 21 hits and 5 walks over 30.1 innings with 38 Ks. That translates to a sub 1.00 WHIP and ERA, great ERA metrics and an elite 33.3% K rate combined with a low 4.4% walk rate. Young righty Tobias Myers has now started three games with one (his first) grading as above average amnd the next two both grading as below. He has given up 9over 13 innings with 11 Ks. runs on 12 hits and 5 walks. That’s not awful, but it’s not good either. I’m sure that at some point someone’s going to get to Gray and the Brewers certainly have the bats to do it, but until I see otherwise, I’ll continue to back Gray. This line seemed light when I bet it this morning and it has now gone up about 25 cents since.
Pick – STL 1st 5 ML in a side bet
That’s all for today. Be back tomorrow