For what it’s worth, yesterday turned out to be a really good day for me. I used three teams, the Blue Jays, Giants and Dodgers, 1st 5 and full game, on my parlay card and every one of them won both their 1st 5 and ML. That left me a whopping 30.24 units for the day and saved my ass this season, leaving me +8.38 units for the season. That’s not real impressive considering how well I’ve don in recent seasons, but in this highly volatile season, I’ll gladly take it.
We have a week left in the regular season and a very small card today, and most of the games have no playoff implications. I have not updated all my team offensive and bullpen numbers since last week and I’m not going to. At this stage, things don’t change in a week, so Ill update again after the regular season is over and before the playoffs begin. I’m going to use two teams, the Indians and the Rockies, 1st 5 and full game ML id a few parlays. Here is the parlay card.
ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team 2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
CLEV 1st 5
|
COL 1st 5
|
155
|
2
|
|
CLEV 1st 5
|
COL ML
|
154
|
2
|
|
CLEV ML
|
COL 1st 5
|
161
|
2
|
|
CLEV ML
|
COL ML
|
159
|
2
|
I may also have a play later on the OAK/SEA game. I haven’t decided on that yet.
Here is my breakdown of the afternoon game.
KC @ CLEV: Jackson Kowar (R) v Cal Quantrill (R)
This game has no playoff implications. The Indians are three games under .500, but played most of the season without reigning AL Cy Young winner Shane Bieber. I guess that they’d like to finish .500 or better. The Royals weren’t really playing for this season, They are young and talented and those kids are getting on the job training this season. This team has a tremendous upside, especially the young pitching staff and could be contending as soon as next season.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
KC
|
4.21
|
24
|
0.303
|
25
|
89
|
25
|
-53.4
|
25
|
7.0%
|
30
|
32.4%
|
13
|
32.4%
|
13
|
21.2%
|
3
|
CLEV
|
4.37
|
20
|
0.306
|
21
|
93
|
19
|
-36.9
|
21
|
7.9%
|
25
|
31.5%
|
22
|
31.5%
|
22
|
23.5%
|
17
|
Edge – CLEV
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
W %
|
Rank
|
KC
|
0.510
|
17
|
1.32
|
14
|
4.30
|
19
|
71.6%
|
17
|
23.6%
|
17
|
10.8%
|
23
|
63.8%
|
16
|
57.9%
|
16
|
CLEV
|
0.443
|
5
|
1.29
|
11
|
3.61
|
5
|
77.9%
|
1
|
25.8%
|
7
|
10.2%
|
18
|
66.1%
|
4
|
59.7%
|
4
|
Edge – CLEV
Starting Pitchers
Jackson Kowar (0-4) has only started 6 games for the Royals, so out sample size is still very small, but of those 6 starts, 5 graded as below average with just 1 grading as above average. In those 6 starts, Kowar has given up 26 runs on 28 hit and 18 walks over 19 innings, while striking out 18. That comes out to a whopping 2.42 WHIP, a 12.32 ERA, a .436 wOBA , and a 17.6% walk rate. I sure as hell am not betting on that!
I did not expect much from Cal Quantrill this season, but there I was very wrong. Quantrill (7-3) has started 21 games for the Indians this season, with 14 grading as above average, including 11 of his last 13, and 7 grading as below average. In those 21 stars, he has given 46 runs (39 earned) on 98 hits and 35 walks over 115 innings, with 94 Ks. That comes out to a solid 1.16 WHIP and 3.05 ERA. However, his 4.05 xERA and ERA metrics are all at least a run higher than his ERA. That’s at least partly due to Quantrill’s .261 BABIP, which is about 20 points lower than his career average. His .297 wOBA is a little lower than league average, as is his .307 xwOBA. Quantrill’s 19.6% K rate is mediocre and his 7/9% walk rate is relatively high for a guy who doesn’t miss that many bats. Still, despite the weak metrics, Quantrill has pitched remarkably well and a lot better than I ever expected.
The Indians appear to have all the edges here, the slightly better offense, the better bullpen and the much better starting pitcher.
Pick – CLEV 1st 5 and full game MLs in a few parlays.