For what it’s worth, my first be of the season was a ML parlay on the Dodgers 1st 5 and ML in the first game of their series in Seou d I lost 2 units. The Dodgers won the game 5-2, but lost the 1st 5. They had their chances, but stranded 7 runners in the first five innings, including leaving the bases loaded in the 3rd. Welol, you can’t win ‘e, all.
I didn’t play the second game of the series, so we go directly to the real opening day on Thursday. I have a fairly large opening day card and here it is.
ML Parlays
|
BALT ML
|
DET ML
|
134
|
2
|
|
BALT ML
|
LAD ML
|
120
|
2
|
|
BALT ML
|
ARIZ ML
|
102
|
2
|
|
DET ML
|
LAD ML
|
119
|
2
|
|
DET ML
|
ARIZ ML
|
101
|
2
|
|
LAD ML
|
ARIZ ML
|
-111
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sides
|
MINN ML
|
|
-130
|
2
|
|
CLEV ML
|
|
-162
|
2
|
|
SEA ML
|
|
166
|
2
|
You may have noticed that there are no 1st bets here. As a rule, I like 1st 5s, but on opening day most teams send out their top starter so we don’t usually get a lot of mismatches.
As I explained in an earlier post, the first time that I do a breakdown of a team, it’s really more of a season preview of that team and I am almost obsessive about being as comprehensive as I possibly can. Unfortunately, that means very long and detailed write ups, but I’ll I’ll only do it once for each team.
LAA @ BALT
The Angels have made exactly one playoff appearance since 2009. Last season, they finished 73-89, 17 games behind the Astros in the NL West and that was with two-time AL MVP Shohei Ohtani, who is now a Dodger. With Mike Trout missing over half of the team’s games over the last three seasons and the best player on the planet playing across town, expectations aren’t high for the 2024 Angels and with good reason.
The Orioles finished 101-61 last season and won the rugged AL East. The O’s have an excellent front office, a good manager, and a solid core group of players. They will also soon have a new ownership group as well. Longtime owner Peter Angelos, who just passed away, sold the team to an ownership group that includes Orioles’ icon Cal Ripken Jr. The O’s performance was no fluke are for real and more talent is on the way, including 20-year-oldJackson Holliday, who will start the season in AAA, but is generally considered to be the top prospect in baseball. Things are looking good for the O’s these days.
Starting Pitchers
3:05
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K%
|
BB%
|
GB%
|
LAA
|
Sandoval - L
|
|
(11/28)
|
-16128
|
1.51
|
4.11
|
4.73
|
4.18
|
4.61
|
5.00
|
0.318
|
0.333
|
34.5%
|
19.6%
|
11.3%
|
46.5%
|
BALT
|
Burnes- R
|
|
(22/32)
|
(9/32
|
1.07
|
3.39
|
3.40
|
3.81
|
3.80
|
4.02
|
0.266
|
0.285
|
32.2%
|
25.5%
|
8.4%
|
44.1%
|
Edge BALT
Last season, the Angels starting rotation finished 26th with a 1.26 WHIP and 19th with a 4.47 ERA and that was with staff ace Ohtani’s 1.06 WHIP, 3.14 ERA and his 167 Ks over 132 innings. Obviously, Ohtani’s absence will have an enormous impact.
Patrick Sandoval came into last season looking like a legitimate breakout candidate after posting a 6-9 record with a 1.34 WHIP, a career best 2.91 ERA and a 151/22 K/BB ratio, but he regressed to a 7-13 record with just 11 of his 28 starts grading as above average. He posted a career worst 1.51 WHIP, a 4.11 ERA and a 128/74 K/BB ratio last season. His fastball velocity remained constant at 93 mph. Sandoval was also able to limit hard contact (34.8%) and induce GBs at a solid 46.5% clip. However, his K rate dropped more than 4% while his walk rate rose about 2% and his strand rate dropped almost 12%. Simply put, he missed fewer bats, put more runners on base and more of them scored. That’s a bad combination. Sandoval has good enough stuff and working with a new pitching coach might help, but as the Angels’ ace, he’s just too damned inconsistent for me.
Last season, the O’s starting rotation posted an 8th ranked 1.23 WHIP and an 11th ranked 4.14 ERA.
The O’s took a one-year gamble by dipping into their deep prospect pool to acquire Brewer’s ace Corbin Burnes in a trade. . Burnes, 29, posted just a 10-8 record last season for the Brewers, but with 22 of his 32 starts grading as above average. He posted a solid 1.07 WHIP and 3.39 ERA with a 200/66 K/BB ratio. His ERA metrics, while still solid, weren’t quite as good as his ERA. Burnes should also add some K upside to a rotation that badly needed it. Last season, the O’s starting pitchers finished 16th with a 22.3% K rate. While Burnes’ 25.5% K rate last season was a career-low, it still would have led the O’s staff.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
HLD
|
RIP
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LAA
|
31
|
37
|
43
|
28
|
60.6%
|
20
|
94
|
0.62
|
26
|
69.3%
|
25
|
1.50
|
28
|
4.88
|
25
|
BALT
|
44
|
21
|
49
|
29
|
62.8%
|
16
|
106
|
0.45
|
4
|
72.4%
|
12
|
1.26
|
7
|
3.55
|
5
|
Edge – BALT
The O’s obviously had the much better bullpen last season and I doubt that changes this season.
The Angels bullpen was really bad last season ranking 28th with an ugly 1.50 WHIP and 25th with an equally ugly 4.88 ERA. It appears that several of the Angels free agent signings will find a home in the bullpen, most notably Robert Stephenson and Matt Moore. New arms can only help this bunch. They couldn’t be any worse than they were last season. The 31-year-old Stephenson was expected to be the Angels closer, but shoulder soreness could jeopardize those plans. Stephenson battled elbow soreness last spring as well and opened the season on the IL. He was activated in mid-April and struggled posting a 1.43 WHIP and 5.14 ERA over 14 innings with the Pirates, but an early-season trade to the Raysa Bay who changed his pitch mix turned his season around. Stephenson implemented a cutter that was devastatingly effective, fueling a career-best 38.8% K rate, a 24.0% swinging K rate and a 30/4 K/BB ratio, as well as a 0.88 WHIP and 2.35 ERA. Moore spent time with the Angels last season, logging a 1.02 WHIP and 2.66 ERA along with a 49/12 K/BB ratio over 44 innings before being waived in late August. After brief stints with the Guardians and Marlins to close the season, Moore returns to give the Angels another reliever capable of handling high-leverage situations.
Last season, the O’s succeeded despite a patchwork rotation because of a dominant bullpen, but there are now concerns about the O’s bullpen with closer Felix Bautista out for the season following Tommy John surgery and new closer Craig Kimbrel approaching 36. After flaming out with the Cubs in 2019-20, Kimbrel found a new lease on life with three straight seasons with at least 63 appearances in each, but age is a valid concern. Yennier Cano was great last season with a 1.00 WHIP and a 2.11 ERA over 72.2 innings, but seemed to run out of gas at times and only appeared in back-to-back games 19 times, so the O’s made a conscious effort to protect him. This pen is mostly the same as it was last season, with the exception of Bautista and the addition of Kimbrel. Bautista is a huge loss, but this was arguably one of the best bullpens in baseball with an 7th ranked WHIP, a 5th ranked ERA, and a 4th ranked runs allowed per inning pitched (RIP) so I’m still expecting this to be a very solid pen.
Offenses
Team
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SB
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
LAA
|
0.320
|
14
|
101
|
14
|
0.181
|
7
|
8.4%
|
19
|
72
|
29
|
-8.0
|
23
|
24.8%
|
25
|
BALT
|
0.320
|
14
|
105
|
10
|
0.166
|
15
|
8.4%
|
19
|
114
|
16
|
13.3
|
3
|
22.4%
|
13
|
Statistically, last season these two offenses were a lot closer than I would have expected. Of course, last season Ohtani was still an Ange and now he’s a Dodger. That Makes a big difference.
Last season, with Ohtani in the lineup, the Angels posted a 14th ranked .320 wOBA and 101 wRC+, making them, a league average offense. This season, with Ohtani in Dodger blue, they’ll have to find a way to replace his league leading .433 wOBA and 180 wRC+. Good luck with that!
OF Mike Trout is still around, but over the last three seasons has missed time with a torn calf muscle, a back injury that was said to be ongoing, and a broken hamate. I don’t know if the back problem really is chronic, but the other injuries were all somewhat flukish. That said, Trout, who will turn 33 in August, posted a career-worst .368 wOBA and 134 wRC+ (his worst mark since 2011) over just 82 games last season. Those are still solid numbers, but Trout only hit 18 HRs and drove in just 44 runs while scoring just 54. That’s a huge drop-off from his 40 HR, 80 RBI and 80 runs scored in 2022. What hasn’t changed is his rising K rate over the last three seasons. Trout struck out 27.9% of the time in 2022 and a career-high 28.7% of the time last season. He still makes decent contact and still hits the ball hard when he’s not striking out. I suppose it’s possible that Trout stays healthy for the first time in three seasons and produces another MVP caliber season, but I’m not putting my money on that happening. There are just too many red flags.
No team is more likely to rush a prospect to the majors than the Angels and no prospect in last year's draft class was more impressive than 22-year-old rookie 1B Nolan Schanuel. The Angels selected Schanuel as the 11th overall pick in the 2023 draft out of Florida Atlantic. He played more games in the majors (29) last season than in the minors (22) after getting drafted. In his very brief MLB debut, he posted a .337 wOBA and 112 wRC+ with 1 HR, 6 RBIs and 9 runs scored in a very small sample size. Schanuel’s contact skills are advanced enough that he should get on base at a high clip, compared to most rookies, but his projected power output is minimal relative to other first basemen. He had a max exit velocity of only 103.5 mph, and just a 2.2%-barrel rate with a 49.4% GB rate. Schanuel doesn't hit the ball hard enough or in the air with enough regularity to project for more than 15 HRs, even with everyday playing time. The Angels will give him plenty of playing time going forward. The plan is to bat him second, preceded bp by either Mickey Moniak or Luis Remgifo at leadoff and followed by Trout in the three hole and Anthony Rendon at cleanup.
As for the rest of the projected lineup, 31-year old 2B/3B Brandon Drury produced a .339 wOBA and 114 wRC+ with 26 HRs and 83 RBIs over 125 games. 25-year-old OF Moniak delivered a .339 wOBA and 114 wRC+ over 85 games and 27-year-old Remgifo contributed a .339 wOBA and 114 wRC+ over 126 games.
23-year-old SS Zach Neto is another homegrown talent. He got a crash course with the leap to the parent club last season where he posted a .302 wOBA, but just an 89 wRC+ over 34 games. 9th. 24-year-old C Logan O’Hoppe posted a .346 wOBA and 113 wRC+, and hit 14 HRs in just 199 plate appearances and 34 year-old OF Taylor Ward, who contributed a .334 wOBA and 107 wRC+, was also an above average hitter. Then there’s the strange case of Rendon.
It’s now more than fair to call the Angels' 2019 signing of Rendon to a seven-year deal an unmitigated disaster. He has spent more time on the IL than on the field over the last four seasons. Over the last three, Rendon has played in a total of 148 games, approximately the equivalent of one season. Last season, he posted a .312 wOBA and a modest 95 wRC+, but played just 43 games. Rendon hasn't lost his elite eye at the plate, walking nearly as many times as he struck out, with a 25/27 BB/K ratio. Ohtani's departure opens the door for Rendon to get major time at DH, which should give him a better chance of staying healthy. Still, counting on a bounce-back from a player who will turn 34 in June and who has vastly underperformed his massive contract for three years now, doesn't seem very likely. Making matters even worse, Rendon also decided to publicly announce that baseball “has never been a top priority for me. It’s just a job.” How dumb is that? I’m sure there are other players who feel that way, but very few would be dumb enough to say so in public. I guess that stupid really is as stupid does and when it comes to stupidity, Rendon takes the cake!
It’s possible that the Angels stay right around league average, even without Ohtani. Of the top eight Angels in plate appearances last season, only Neto and Hunter Renfroe were under the league average of a 100 in wRC+ and Renfroe, like Ohtani is gone. This offense lacks big names other than maybe Trout, but there could still be some good hitters on this team.
The Orioles scored 133 more runs in 2023 than they did in 2022. They went from a -14 run differential in 2022 to a +129 run differential in 2023. Their wOBA jumped from .305 to .320 and their wRC+ from 101 to 105. They also struck out less and walked more with more doubles, triples, and HRs and they could be even better this season.
C/DH Adley Rutschman was worse in his first full season as compared to his half-season in 2022, but he is still one of the league’s elite young players at a premier position. He also has plenty of help.
22-year-old 3B/SS Gunnar Henderson was the AL Rookie of the Year last season and Holliday is favored to win that award this season.
25-year-old DH/CF Heston Kjerstad, who made his MLB debut last season and 23-year-old OF Cotton Cowser are also promising debutants from last season.
25-year-old Jordan Westburg posted a .309 wOBA and a 97 wRC+ over 68 games in his first go-round as a big leaguer. He’s hit at every level in the minors.
While the O’s youth movement has already paid diividends, Holdovers such as 29-year-old OF Anthony Santander,21-year old 1B Ryan Mountcastle, and 30-year-old 1B Ryan O’Hearn are all players that showed well above average contact skills last season with hard-hit rates ranging from 51.5% to 44.6% while the league average was around 39%.
As the O’s keep developing and bringing up these kids, their bench depth gets stronger, resulting in more platoon opportunities and more ways to keep all these kids fresh.
Conclusion: The Orioles appear to have all the edges here. Burnes should be the better starting pitcher, but Sandoval has talent, so I’m not sure the starting pitching edge is big enough to warrant a 1st 5 bet. Even without Bautista, the Orioles’ bullpen should still be better than the Angels’ pen and offensively, the O’s were the better hitting team last season. If anything, they should be even better this season and without Ohtani, the Angels will be worse. I’m betting on the better team to win the game.
Pick - BALT ML in a series of parlays
DET @ CHI WS
The Tigers have been in rebuild mode for some time now. The rebuild isn’t done yet, but it’s close. The Tigers haven’t had a winning season since 2016, but last season’s 78-84 record was the Tigers’ best since then. Things are definitely looking up in the “Motor City”.
Last season, the White Sox finished a dismal 61-101 and they just traded their best pitcher to the Padres. Things don’t look good on the South Side of Chicago. The White Sox could very well post their third 100-loss season in the last seven, so they’re tearing it all down and starting the rebuild. President Ken Williams and Senior VP and GM Rick Hahn were both fired in late August. Former Farm Director Chris Getz is now the GM and he’ll work alongside Josh Barfield, who was formerly the Director of Player Development for the Diamondbacks. The White Sox also brought in highly regarded pitching mind Brian Bannister as a Senior Advisor and the payroll has been slashed. The bad news is that the White Sox will be awful, again this season, but the good news is that we just might be witnessing the birth of a new era. For their long-suffering fans sake, I sure hope so.
Starting Pitchers
4:10
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K%
|
BB%
|
GB%
|
DET
|
Skubal – L
|
|
(12/15)
|
(3/15)
|
0.90
|
2.80
|
2.28
|
2.00
|
2.56
|
2.77
|
0.236
|
0.236
|
39.8%
|
32.9%
|
4.5%
|
51.6%
|
|
CHI WS
|
Crochet - L
|
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
0.78
|
3.55
|
6.48
|
5.70
|
7.16
|
6.42
|
0.364
|
0.381
|
44.7%
|
18.8%
|
20.3%
|
32.4%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Edge – DET
The Tigers’ starting rotation posted a 5th ranked 1.22 WHIP, but only a 17th ranked 4.56 ERA last season. That wasn’t great, but it was progress.
Tarik Skubal finished 7-3 last season with 12 of his 15 starts grading as abov5 average and just 3 grading as below. He posted a stellar 0.90 WHIP and 2.80 ERA with a superb 102/14 K/BB ratio over 80.1 innings, after returning from flexor tendon surgery. A healthy Skubal is a legitimate ace, but he’s exceeded 118 innings just once in his four big league seasons, so durability remains an issue. If Skubal can stay healthy, he’ll take his place as an elite starting pitcher and the anchor of this rotation.
The White Sox pitching staff left a lot to be desired last season , posting a 24th ranked 1.41 WHIP and 1 23rd ranked 4.87 ERA. After unsuccessfully trying to trade Dylan Cease all winter, the White Sox finally dealt him to the Padres a few weeks ago.
In a totally surprising move, the White Sox decided to start Garett Crochet in the team's opener against the Tigers in Chicago. Crochet is a converted reliever who missed all of the 2022 season following Tommy John surgery and was limited to just 25 games between the majors and minors last season due to a shoulder injury. He has never made an MLB start and last season walked more batters (13) than he struck out (12) in his 12.2 MLB innings. The White Sox's decision to go with Crochet in the season opener speaks volumes about what they think of their starting rotation. After struggling with his control late last season, Crochet has looked better this spring, giving up 7 hits, but 0 runs over 9 innings, with a 12/0 K/BB ratio, but I’m sure as hell not willing to back him based on that.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
HLD
|
RIP
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
DET
|
33
|
27
|
41
|
22
|
65.1%
|
12
|
100
|
0.51
|
16
|
70.9%
|
20
|
1.27
|
10
|
4.16
|
17
|
CHW
|
24
|
38
|
28
|
29
|
49.1%
|
29
|
71
|
0.61
|
25
|
68.1%
|
27
|
1.43
|
25
|
4.88
|
25
|
Edge -DET
The Tiger bullpen could surprise this season. They ranked in the middle of the pack last season with a10th ranked 1.27 WHIP, a 17ty ranked 4.16 ERA and a 16th ranked 0.51 runs allowed per inning. Closer Alex Lange notched 26 saves in 32 opportunities with a 1.33 WHIP and a 3.68 ERA, as well as 79 Ks in 66 innings. Jason Foley had 70 appearances with a 1.16 WHIP and 2.61 ERA and Will Vest added a 1.10 WHIP and 2.98 ERA over 48.1 innings. With the addition of Andrew Chafin and Shelby Miller, this pen is now deeper than last season’s unit.
The White Sox bullpen was bad last season, ranking 25th in WHIP (1.43), ERA (5.88) and runs allowed per inning (0.61). It may not be any better this season. The White Sox are just hoping to develop a few decent relievers that they can trade for prospects at the trade deadline. Prospects like 25-year-old Jordan Leasure and 24-year-old Deivi Garcia could become arms to build a bullpen around.
Offenses
Team
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SB
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
DET
|
0.300
|
28
|
89
|
26
|
0.146
|
25
|
8.4%
|
20
|
85
|
26
|
3.9
|
12
|
24.2%
|
23
|
CHI WS
|
0.292
|
30
|
83
|
29
|
0.146
|
28
|
6.3%
|
30
|
86
|
25
|
-4.7
|
20
|
23.8%
|
19
|
These were two bad offenses last season, but the White Sox were th worst of the two.
The Tigers’ offense wasn’t good last season ranking in the league’s bottom five with 4.08 runs per game (#27), a .300 wOBA (#28) and a 89 wRC+ (27).
On the plus side, four players under the age of 25 are expected to be in the Tigers’ opening day lineup as the process of moving out bloated veteran contracts and settling for inexpensive placeholders is finally over. 22-year-old 2B/3B Colt Keith looks likely to make his MLB debut in a lineup that will also feature 24-year-old OF Parker Meadows, 23-year-ld OF Riley Greene, and 24-year-old 1B Spencer Torkelson. The future is now for the Tigers.
Torkelson posted a .326 wOBA and a 107 wRC+ while hitting 31 HRs and driving in 94 runs. The Arizona State product was drafted 1.1 in 2020 as the best hitter in the college ranks. While he struggled in several areas, such as striking out a lot (24.5%) and hitting in a lot of deep counts, Torkelson still had a 50.5% hard- hit rate and hit 19 of his 31 HRs in the second half, so he adjusted and got better. His contact ability is impressive.
Greene put up a .344 wOBA and a 119 wRC+ with an 11.3% barrel rate and a 46.6% hard-hit rate over 99 games last season while dealing with some injuries. He only hit 11 homers because of a bad launch angle, but he hit the ball hard, well above the league average of 39.2%.
Meadows posted a .308 wOBA and a 92 wRC+ in his 37 games with the Tigers last season. He hit 22 HRs and stole 27 bases across two levels. Parker also profiles as a really good defensive CF, walks a ton, but will strike out some. He will get a shot at the top of this order and will add some much-needed athleticism. Both Meadows and Greene are athletes and they can go and get it in the OF, which should help the pitching staff tremendously.
Keith hit 27 homers in 126 minor league games last season, but will have to find a position, possibly DH. He has power and decent contact skills. The Tigers believed in Keith enough to sign him to a six-year, $28.6 million deal with options that could exceed $80 million!
How long has it been since the Tigers had so much young talent? Now throw in 26-year-old Kerry Carpenter who quietly posted a .347 wOBA and 121 wRC+ while slugging 20 HRs in 459 PA last season. Mark Canha is a consummate pro and a nice add in the OF for this young team. So is Gio Urshela, whose glovework will help at 3B, and whose bat can contribute here and there.
The White Sox ranked among the absolute worst offensive teams in the league last season, averaging the 2nd fewest runs per game (3.96). Only the A’s averaged less. They also posted the league’s lowest wOBA (.292) and 2nd lowest wRC+(83).
The biggest decision that the new management will have to make is whether to keep 26-year-old OF Luis Robert Jr. He isn’t the only potential trade candidate, but he is the one that would bring the biggest return. Robert was finally able to tap into all of his potential. He was one of the White Sox’s few bright spots last season, posting a 358 wOBA and 128 wRC+, while leading the team with 38 HRs, 90 runs scored, 80 RBIs and 20 stolen bases. The big difference was that Robert finally stayed healthy. He played over 100 games for the first time in his four MLB seasons and played a stellar CF as well. Robert is only 26 and he’s signed through 2027, so the White Sox will have to decide whether to build around him or trade him for a boatload of prospects.
Other than Robert, 27-year old DH/OF Elroy Jimenez and 25-year-old 1B/OF Andrew Vaughn were the only other White Sox hitters with a wRC+ above 98. Jimenez was productive last season, posting a .325 wOBA and 105 wRC+, but not as productive as he was in 2022. He was relegated primarily to the DH role to try and keep him healthy. Back in 2019, he was a top-10 prospect in baseball. Now, at 27 he’s just trying to prove he can be a viable everyday player by staying healthy enough to be on the field. His contact quality remains promising, despite his hard-hit rate dropping 8.3% from 2022 to 2023 and his barrel% dropping over 5%.
Andrew Vaughn posted a .321 wOBA and a 121 wRC last season. He has solid contact skills (a 46.5% hard-hit rate), but only hit 21 HRs because he doesn’t elevate the ball enough.
That’s about all that’s left from last season pathetic offense. Adam Eaton is no longer playing baseball. Jose Abreu is with the Astros. Jake Burger and his 113 wRC+ is now a Marlin, as is Tim Anderson who finally found work and one-time 2B of the future Nick Madrigal is a bench player for the Cubs. 28-year-old 2B/3B Yoan Moncada is still around, but he produced another below average season with a .315 wOBA and 98 wRC+ while striking out 30% of the time. There’s not a whole lot to work with right now and if Robert ends up getting traded or hurt this offense won’t get any better.
Conclusion: The Tiger rebuild is starting to pay dividends, while the White Sox rebuild is just getting started. Skubal v Crochet looks like a starting pitchers mismatch and the Tigers have the better pen and the better offense. Again, I’m betting on the better team to just win the game.
Pick – DET ML in a series of parlays
Two more tomorrow.
BOL