For what it's worth, here are two more games that I'm playing on Thursday.
MINN @ KC
The Twins won the AL Central by 9 games and also won a playoff series for the first time since 2002. The question now becomes whether the Twins can build on last season. It should be noted that the Twins stayed mostly healthy last season, using only 48 players, their fewest since 2015, so good health had a lot to do with the Twins’ success. The Twins will return almost the same roster as last season, with just a few tweaks. They are understandably the AL Central favorite, but the path back to the postseason might not be as quite as easy this time around with the rising Tigers and the Guardians waiting in the wings.
Health has been a big concern for this team, especially with OF Byron Buxton, who is arguably the game’s most exciting player when he’s healthy.
It’s hard to believe that the Royals won it all in 2016. That was just 8 years ago, but it seems like an eternity. Since then the team has not had a single winning season. The Royals have lost over 100 games three times since then, including 106 last season, but just might avoid 100 losses this season because they finally have some building blocks, including SS Bobby Witt Jr. and SP Cole Ragans. Unfortunately, high-end prospects are lacking. The Royals don’t have a single top-100 prospect in their minor league system.
Starting Pitchers
4:10
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K%
|
BB%
|
GB%
|
MINN
|
Lopez - R
|
|
22/32
|
(10/32
|
1.15
|
3.66
|
3.00
|
3.33
|
3.28
|
3.37
|
0.294
|
0.269
|
34.5%
|
29.2%
|
6.0%
|
45.2%
|
KC
|
Ragans - L
|
|
(10/12)
|
(2/12)
|
1.16
|
3.47
|
3.28
|
3.19
|
3.71
|
3.85
|
0.266
|
0.283
|
36.4%
|
28.8%
|
10.5%
|
44.0%
|
Edge – MINN
The Twins’ starting rotation posted a 2nd ranked 1.16 WHIP and 3.82 ERA last season, but other than Pablo Lopez the rotation could be more problematic this season.
Lopez is a legitimate ace. He is coming off an impressive first season with the Twins in which he posted an 11-8 record with 22 of his 32 starts grading s above average to just 10 grading as below. He posted a 1.15 WHIP and a 3.66 ERA over a career-high 194 innings while maintaining a career-best 94.8 mph velocity and posted a career-high 29.2% K rate and a 14.8% swinging-strike rate. His ERA metrics were all close to a half a run lower than his ERA. That tells that Lopez actually pitched even better last season than his ERA would suggest. He was also sensational in the postseason going 2-0 and giving up just one run in 12.2 innings. This offseason, Lopez altered his arsenal, adding a sweeper as his primary off-speed pitch and that could generate even more Ks.
The Royals starting rotation posted a less than impressive 20th ranked 1.34 WHIP and just a 27th ranked 5.21 ERA last season.
Cole Ragans seemed like two completely different pitchers in 2023. He worked exclusively as a reliever for the Rangers giving up too many walks and HRs. In July, he was traded to the Royals for Aroldis Chapman. The deal seemed like “a win-win” last season, but one the Rangers might end up regretting for years to come if Ragans continues to pitch like he did with the Royals last season. The Royals certainly didn’t expect him to dominate the way he did. There was nothing indicating that he would. Yet Ragans was probably the Royals’ best pitcher last season, posting a 5-2 record over 12 starts, with 10 of them grading as above average. The 26-year-old Ragans delivered a 5-2 record with ed a stellar 1.07 WHIP and 2.64 ERA over 71.2 innings for the Royals. His ERA metrics were totally consistent with his ERA. He gained velocity (96.6 mph), posting a 31.1% K rate and reduced his walks (9.4%) and HRs (3). The only problem is that he still pitches for a bad team. Big things are expected of Ragans this season, but with all the hype, it might be tough for him to meet those expectations.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
HLD
|
RIP
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
MINN
|
38
|
30
|
38
|
28
|
57.6%
|
23
|
78
|
0.48
|
12
|
73.3%
|
10
|
1.25
|
6
|
3.95
|
15
|
KC
|
25
|
38
|
28
|
25
|
52.8%
|
26
|
66
|
0.63
|
28
|
67.7%
|
28
|
1.49
|
27
|
5.23
|
29
|
Edge – MINN
The Twins’ pen ranked 6th with a 1.25 WHIP, 15th with a 3.95 ERA and 12th in runs allowed per inning in 2023. Closer Jhoan Duran notched 27 saves in 32 save opportunities, while posting a 1.14 WHIP and a 2.45 ERA. He also once again led the league with 473 pitches thrown at 100 mph or greater. Unfortunately, Duran will begin the season on the 15-day IL with a moderate right oblique strain. Griffin Jax and Brock Stewart are viewed as the top candidates for saves while Duran is sidelined. His stellar 2023 season suggests that the rest of the pen was nowhere near as erffective. Jax was good in the primary setup role and Stewart, who posted a 0.8- WHIP and 0.65 ERA in 27.2 innings looked legit, but the rest of the pen was mostly a revolving door and this season doesn’t look much better.
The Royals’ bullpen was bad with a 2th ranked 1.41 WHIP, a 29th ranked 5.23 in ERA and a 28th ranked 0.63 runs allowed per inning pitched. This unit projects to be bad again this season, as nobody in the Royals’ pen other than Duran, projects to have an ERA under 4.00.
Offenses
Team
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SB
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
MINN
|
0.327
|
7
|
109
|
6
|
0.184
|
5
|
9.6%
|
4
|
86
|
23
|
-1.0
|
18
|
26.6%
|
30
|
KC
|
0.303
|
26
|
87
|
28
|
0.153
|
21
|
6.9%
|
29
|
163
|
3
|
5.1
|
11
|
23.3%
|
18
|
Edge – MINN
The Twins were a solid offense last season, averaging 4.74 runs per game (rank #11) with a .327 wOBA (rank #7) and a 109 wRC+ (rank #6). Their biggest problem was that they struck out too often. The Twins 26.6% K rate was the worst in baseball, but they were able to offset that very high K rate by drawing walks and hitting HRs. They finished 3rd with 533 HRs despite having no one with more than 24, and 4th with a 9.6% walk rate. That makes the Twins offense dangerous.
This season, the Twins will be hoping for more production from Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton, who both underperformed their career norms last season, they also added Carlos Santana.
Last season, 11 Twins’ hitters posted a wRC+ of 101 or higher and that group didn’t include either Buxton or Correa. It was their “kiddie Corps” that fueled the Twins offense in 2023.
24-year-old 2B/DH Edouard Julien posted a .336 wOBA and a 136 wRC+ with a 16% walk rate and 16 HRs, but also a 31.4% K rate after being called up from AAA
26-year-old OF Matt Wallner posted a .377 wOBA and a 144 wRC+ over 76 games after his call up with an 11% walk rate and 14 HRs, but also a high 31.5% K rate.
24-year-old 3B Royce Lewis posted a .393 wOBA and a 155 wRC+ over 58 games after his call-up, with 15 HRs.
OF Max Kepler contributed a.343 wOBA and a 124 wRC+ while leading the team with 24 HRs. The kids came through in a big way for the Twins last season.
As for Buxton, health has always been the issue with the now 30-year-old Buxton, who was one of the game’s most exciting players back when he was healthy. He had yet another injury-plagued season in 2023 and his decline at the plate and inability to play in the field clouds his future with the Twins. Buxton underwent arthroscopic knee surgery in late September 2022 and didn't play until late in spring training. The Twins then decided that he would only be used as DH. Despite flashes of power (17 HRs), Buxton underwhelmed at the plate, posting a .311 wOBA and a 98 wRC+ over 85 games and missing time with calf, knee, back and rib issues. Buxton's knee never improved and he again landed on the IL in early August with a hamstring strain, returning for just one plate appearance in the playoffs. After the season, Buxton had another surgery on his knee to clean up scarring from his 2022 surgery. The plan is for him to be the team's primary CF in 2024, but I have my doubts about that.
The 29-year-old Correa's second season with the Twins was also disappointing, as he posted an underwhelming .309 wOBA and 96 wRC+. In fairness, he did play most of 2023 with plantar fasciitis in his left foot. The injury limited him at the plate and took away his speed which contributed to him leading the league in grounding into double plays (30). Correa was still a plus defender mostly because of his riffle arm and was a finalist for the AL Gold Glove at SS. After his only IL stint for the foot issues, he returned and excelled in the postseason, hitting .409 with three doubles in six games. The Twins are hoping that with offseason rest, Corea can produce like that in 2023. Correa and Buxton contributed their share of Ks, but both also posted double-digit walk rates.
The Twins also added another bat by signing veteran free agent 1B Carlos Santana. The switch-hitting Santana posted a .323 wOBA and 101 wRC+ in what was his age-37 season, with his highest HR (23), RBI (86) and run totals (78) in four seasons while splitting time between the Pirates and the Brewers.
The Royals averaged 4.17 runs per game last season. That ranked 23rd in the league. They also posted a 26th ranked .303 wOBA and a 28th ranked 87 wRC+. Suffice it to say that the Royals were a lousy offense in 2023.
Emerging star, 23-year-old Bobby Witt Jr. posted a .343 wOBA and a 115 wRC+ with a team leading 30 HRs and 49 stolen bases, accounting for basically half of the Royals offense. In his breakout season, he seemed to have a better feel for the strike zone and that resuted in an almost 7% jump in hard-contact and an almost 3% increase in barrel rate.
The other Royals who posted a wRC+ above league average were OF Nelson Velazquez (130), 1B/2B Nick Loftin (118), C Freddy Fermin (108), OF Dairon Blanco (10b), OF Edward Olivares (105), and 1B/DH Vinnie Pasquantino (103).
The 25-year-old Velazquez, who posted a team leading .365 wOBA over 40 games, was a midseason trade addition from the Cubs who should play a bigger role this season.
The 28-year-old Fermin posted a .333 WHIP over 70 games. Blanco, who will turn 31 soon, posted a .333 wOBA and stole 24 bases, over 69 games after tearing up AAA pitching over the last two seasons.
The 25-year-old Loftin, who posted a .348 WOBA, but in only 19 games, is probably the Royals top prospect now that the others have graduated to the parent club. He makes good contact and is versatile, so he will probably play a super-utility role in 2024.
The 26 year-old Pasquantino, who posted a .327 wOBA over 67 games, has hit at every level in the minors, but suffered a shoulder injury last season that ended his seasonprematurely. He makes solid contact and seems to have a feel for the strike zone, as well as some power potential. Olivares is now a Pirate.
Beyond Witt and maybe Pasquantino, upside is hard to find, especially in the power department. The Royals hit just 163 HRs last season, ranking 26th. Making matters worse, because they didn’t walk much (6.9%) and had a low .303 wOBA, 108 of those HRs were solo shots.
Conclusion: I didn’t feel comfortable using the Twins in multiple parlays, but it was less about the Twins and more about not being sure what to expect from the Royals. I think that Lopez is the real deal, an elite starting pitcher, but I’m not sure that Ragans is really as good as he looked last season. The Twins should hae the better pen, but no Duran concerns me. The Twins were also the better h. The Twins are itting team last season and I don’t see that changing this season, so I’ll just be on the better team too just win the game, but in a straight ML play.
Pick – MINN ML
CLEV @ OAK
The Guardians contact-based approach worked really well in 2022 when they finished 92-70 and won the AL Central, but didn’t work nearly as well last season, as the Guardians finished 76-86, 11games behind the Twins. As for the 2024 season, the Guardians should have a fairly high floor because they could have one of the best starting rotations in the AL, but their ceiling will be determined by how well their offense performs.
The A’s may have finally bottomed out. They lost a whopping 112 games last season after losing 102 in 2022. They’ve hit rock bottom as they’re about to relocate to Vegas. The A’s actually have some decent MLB talent, but still too many below average players. Expectations for the 2024 A’s are again very low and rightly so.
Starting Pitchers
10:07
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K%
|
BB%
|
GB%
|
CLEV
|
Bieber – R
|
|
(12/21)
|
(9/21)
|
1.23
|
3.80
|
4.77
|
3.87
|
3.96
|
4.29
|
0.307
|
0.336
|
47.6%
|
20.1%
|
6.4%
|
47.2%
|
OAK
|
Wood - R
|
|
-5.11
|
(6/11)
|
2.43
|
4.33
|
4.67
|
4.47
|
5.14
|
4.98
|
0.335
|
0.331
|
37.4%
|
17.2%
|
9.8%
|
45.0%
|
Edge – CLEV
In 2022, then 26-yeaar old Shane Bieber threw 200 innings for the second time in his career and was unquestionably one of the best pitchers in the league with a 1.04 WHIP and a 2.88 ERA. However, he ended up making just 21 starts after experiencing elbow inflammation in July. It was the 2nd time in three season that Bieber missed a significant chunk of time. The good news was that he returned and made two late-season starts. The not-so-good news was that Bieber took a big step backwards in 2023. He was again dealing with elbow inflammation and missed another big chunk of time. He finished just 6-6 with 12 of his 21 starts grading as above average, but 9 grading as below. Bieber posted a pedestrian 1.23 WHIP and 3.80 ERA with a 107/34 K/BB ratio over just 128 innings. He posted career worsts in K rate, (20.%), hard-hit rate (47.6%), and average and exit velocity. More concerning was that Bieber’s fastball velocity slipped below 92 mph for the second straight season and was down nearly three ticks from where it was in 2020. The right-hander’s been healthy this spring and he’s only 28. After an offseason at Driveline Baseball, Bieber was back to hitting 93-94 on the radar gun and his curve looked very much like the pitch we saw in 2021 when he posted a 33.1% K rate. Heading into 2024, Bieber is still considered the Guardians' staff ace and there is hope and optimism that Bieber is indeed back, but we can’t be sure.
Alex Wood will start the A’s opener. There was a time when Wood was a decent starting pitcher, but that’s no longer the case. The 33-year-old lefty worked as a swingman for the Giants last season, posting a 5-5 record with more below average start (6) than above average ones (5). Wood posteda mediocre 1.43 WHIP, a 4.33 ERA and a 74/42 K/BB ratio over 97.2 innings. He has lost velocity that he couldn’t afford to lose and has now morphed into a sinker/slider finesse type pitcher best suited to relief. His delivery and arm angle still give him enough deception to keep hitters guessing, but Wood just doesn’t miss enough bats these days. His margin for error is just too damned small to run him out there every five days. .
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
HLD
|
RIP
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
CLE
|
37
|
34
|
47
|
32
|
59.5%
|
22
|
100
|
0.49
|
14
|
71.7%
|
16
|
1.30
|
17
|
3.79
|
9
|
OAK
|
30
|
40
|
29
|
26
|
52.7%
|
27
|
60
|
0.62
|
26
|
67.7%
|
28
|
1.51
|
29
|
5.20
|
28
|
Edge – CLEV
The Guardians bullpen should be OK this season, but we’ll have to see how first-time manager Stephen Vogt uses it. Emmanuel Clase will again be the Guardians closer. He led the league in saves for the second straight season, tallying a career-high 44 in 56 save opportunities, but was hardly dominant . His 1.16 WHIP and 3.22 ERA were fine, but Clase also posted career-worsts with 9 losses and 12 blown saves, which was the most for any reliever last season. Hitters made more contact against him and that inflated his BABIP (.295) by more than 70 points while his K rate plummet to a career-worst 21.2%. That will be something to monitor. Trevor Stephan was among the league leaders in the holds category last season, but he regressed a bit statistically thanks to a rough final month that saw his 1.18 WHIP and 2.78 ERA balloon to 1.30 and 4.06 respectively by season's end. Stephan was expected to reprise his role as the Guardians primary setup man in 2024, but will now undergo surgery on his right elbow in the next week or two. The specific procedure and a timetable aren't yet known, but unless he gets an arthroscopic procedure, Stephan could miss the entire 2024 season. The Guardians also traded away Enyel De Los Santos for Scott Barlow in what looks like a fairly even swap. Depth-wise, this pen should still be a pretty decent unit with reinforcements waiting in the wings, including 23-year-old Franco Aleman, who struck out 84 batters in 55 high A and AA innings last season.
The A’s had one of the worst bullpens in baseball last season and that probably will be the case again this season. 36 different pitchers worked at least an inning out of the revolving door that was the A’s pen and just five had 30+ appearances. Based on his performance this spring, Flamethrower Mason Miller will probably open the season as the A’s closer. Miller has thrown 6.2 innings over 7 games, giving up 3 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks while striking out 11. His elite fastball was clocked as high as 103 mph. Miller is also using his wipeout slider effectively. The concern is that Miller is also considered to be at high risk to get hurt. A shoulder injury limited him to 30.2 innings as a 23-year-old in 2022 and a UCL sprain limited him to 52.2 innings in 2023. Miller has only topped 60 innings twice dating back to his college days, logging 67.2 innings in 2019 and 98.2 innings in 2021. That’s in part because of a Type 1 diabetes diagnosis. The fact that he throws so hard only adds to the risk. Beyond Miller, Trevor Gott and Scott Alexander at least provide a couple of stable vets surrounded by a bunch of unknowns.
Offenses
Team
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SB
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
OAK
|
0.293
|
29
|
89
|
27
|
0.147
|
24
|
8.3%
|
22
|
149
|
6
|
-6.2
|
21
|
25.1%
|
27
|
CLEV
|
0.302
|
27
|
92
|
22
|
0.131
|
30
|
7.7%
|
25
|
151
|
5
|
8.1
|
7
|
18.7%
|
1
|
Last season, the Guardians averaged a dismal 4.09 runs per game. Only four teams, the Tigers, Marlins, White Sox and A’s averaged less. Their .302 wOBA ranked 27th and their 92 wRC+ ranled 22nd. The Guardians were a bad offensive team. To fix their broken offense, the Guardians brought in…nobody!
31-year-old 3BJose Ramirez is still the main man and probably doesn’t get the credit that he deserves. Ramirez posted a 346 wOBA and 123 wRC+ last season with 24 HRs, 87 RBIs and 8o runs scored. While he hasn’t won a Gold Glove, Ramirez has been a five-time finalist at 3B, while posting a 134 wRC+ over the last three season.
The big problem for the Guardians; offense is that other than Ramirez, there’s not much else to get excited about. 26-year old 1B/DH Josh Naylor posted a 354 wOBA and a 128 wRC+ over 121 games and 24-year old C brother Bo Naylor contributed a 347 wOBA and a 124 wRC+. The Guardians will have a full season of Bo behind the plate and hopefully a full season of Josh in the 1B/DH role after he missed 41 games last season. The Naylor brother could be two important building blocks.
26 year old OF Steven Kwan was just a league-average hitter last season with a .313 wOBA and a 100 wRC+.
The Guardians also desperately need 25-year-old 2b Andres Gimenez to get back on track. Gimenez who posted a .354 wOBA and 142 wRC+ in 2022, slipped to a 309 wOBA and 97 wRC+ in 2023 after signing a big money contract. His hard- hit rate dropped from 37.6% to 27%.
That bring us to the curious case of Kyle Manzardo. The 23-year-old 1B came into this season widely considered to be one of the best pure hitters in the minors. He posted a .392 wOBA and a 123 wRC+ with 6 HRs and a career high 112 mph exit velocity over 21 games at AAA, after being traded at the deadline by the Rays to the Guardians in exchange for SP Aaron Civale. Manzardo should have been a cinch to make the Guardians opening day roster, giving some offense punch to a team that desperately needs it. However, Manzardo was recently reassigned to the Guarddians minor-league camp. becoming yet another victim of what is so foolishly wrong with MLB economics. The Guardians don’t want to deal with contract demands any sooner than they absolutely have to, so they are manipulating Manzardo’s service time five or six years before it actually matters financially. It’s not just the Guardians, many MLB teams operate this way, but games in April matter as much as games in September and the concept of not putting your best lineup out there in April just to save a few million dollars down the road is short-sighted and stupid. Yet that’s exactly what the Guardians are doing with Manzardo.
With Manzardo not on the opening day roster, the only newcomers are Estevan Florial and Deyvison De Los Santos, a trade acquisition from the Yankees, who is out of minor league options and a Rule 5 Draft Pick from the Diamondbacks. Very little is expected from either. It sure looks like the Guardians will again struggle offensively.
The A’s had a terrible offense last season, ranking last with a dismal 3.61 runs per game, 29th with a .293 wOBA, and 27th with an 89 wRC+. Granted that the Oakland Coliseum is a terrible park to hit in, but that’s not why the A’s hit so badly. Look no further than their 27th ranked 25.1% K rate. The reality is that the A’s struck out way too much. They did steal 149 bases in a desperate attempt to generate some offense some way. The pessimism surrounding the A’s offense is well deserved, but there are three hitters that performed well enough to be considered offensive building blocks for 2024.
Top prospect 24-year-old 2B Zack Gelof posted a .357 wOBA and a 133 wRC+ with 14 HRs, 14 SBs, 32 RBIs and 40 runs scored in 69 games with the A’s after being called up, but did strike out at a 27.3% clip. That was after posting a .408 wOBA and 123 wRC+ in AAA. The second-rounder out of Virginia looks like a keeper.
29-year-old DH.OF Brent Rooker produced a .348 wOBA and 127 wRC+ while hitting 30 HRs and would’ve probably had more if not for a 32.7% K rate. His 49.5% hard-hit rate and 15.6% barrel rate confirm his legitimacy as a hitter.
27-year-old 1B Ryan Noda posted a .343 wOBA and a 123 wRC+ in 28 games with the A’s last season, but also struck out at a 34.3% clip, but at least also walked 15.6% of the time to make up for it. He hit the ball hard (45% hard-hit rate) with a solid 13% barrel rate, but only hit 16 HRs.
The A’s need to find more offense. It’s that simple. 26-year-old OF Conner Capel and 36-year-old C Manny Pina were the only other A’s hitters with a wRC+ above 100 and Capel only had 86 PAs and Pina had just 12.
31-year-old 1b/OF Seth Brown produced a .323 wOBA and a a 116 wRC+ in 2022, but slumped to a .298 wOBA and a 92 wRC+ last season, despite posting a 5.3% higher hard-hit rate. What he produced in 2022 makes Brown a decent bounce back candidate. The A’s also need to get at least a league-average season from 26-year-old C Shea Langeliers and other former top prospects like 25-year-old OF Esteury Ruiz and 26-year-old OFJJ Bleday. I suppose it’s possible but I’m sure as hell not betting on it.
The A’s also don’t really have any hitting prospects in the upper minors either. Improvement will have to come from the current major league roster and that seems highly unlikely.
Conclusion: The A’s were a bad team last season and should be bad again in 2024. The starting pitching matchup favors the Guardians, mostly because my expectations for Wood are so low, but I’m not sure what we’ll get from Bieber. There are some encouraging signs, but I’ll need to see more. The Guardians should have the better pen, even without Stephan and they should also have the better of two below average offenses, if only by default. How much better is something I don’t know. I don’t trust the Guardians offense or Bieber enough to use them in a series of parlays, but I’m still reasonably certain that the Guardians are better than the A’s, so I’m willing to bet on them to just win the damned game. This one’s about betting against the A’s.
Pick – CLEV ML in a straight ML bet.