Before, I move on to my final opening day game breakdown, I should mention that I agonized about switching from the Dodgers full game ML to the Dodgers 1st 5 ML. I think that the 1st 5 is the stronger bet, but the Dodgers 1st 5 today is much more expensive than the full game was when I used it on my parlay card. That one change would also require me to change three parts of my card and that’s a real hassle, so the hell with it. I’ll stick with what I’ve got. I still think that the Dodgers win the game, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Cards pull the upset.
As for the Dodgers, this whole Ohtani thing is like a big black cloud that’s hanging over them. I don’t know where the truth lies..
While I believe it’s possible that Ohtani might bail out a good friend’s gambling debt, I very much doubt than he would to the tune of $4.5 million!
While I don’t put it above the interpreter to steal, we’re talking about going into Ohtani’s supposedly private account and withdrawing 4.5 million without anyone noticing? How is that even possible?.
I know MLB doesn’t want to really look into their “golden boy”, but to me it seems just as likely that Ohtani was doing the betting through his interpreter. There are just too many unanswered questions here. MLB doesn’t want to investigate I sure as hell don’t trust this Justice Deparment either. All I know is that with this all hanging over their heads, I am concerned about the Dodgers and I may regret using them on my card.
COL @ ARIZ
The 2023 Rockies finished a dismal 59-103, 41 games behind the Dodgers at the bottom of the NL West. They were particularly bad away from Coors Field with a 22-59 road record and the 2024 Rockies don’t look any better.
The Diamondbacks finished the regular season 84-78, 16 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. That was good enough to sneak into the NL playoffs. They then improbably rolled through the NL playoffs, beating the Brewers 2-0 in the NL Wild Card round, then sweeping the mighty Dodgers in the NLDS. They followed that up by beating the Phillies in seven games in the NLCS before losing to the Rangers in six games in the World Series. The D-Backs did all that despite a -15 run differential. The only other team to get that far with a negative run differential was the 1987 Twins, and only 11 teams have even made the playoffs with a negative run differential. The Dbacks simply got hot at the right time. This season’s they’ll open the season with a lot of the same personnel, but a few key additions could make them an even better team in 2024.
Starting Pitchers
10:10
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K%
|
BB%
|
GB%
|
COL
|
Freeland - L
|
|
(9/29)
|
(18/29)
|
1.47
|
5.03
|
5.70
|
5.30
|
5.13
|
5.24
|
0.346
|
0.347
|
43.3%
|
16.7%
|
13.3%
|
45.0%
|
ARIZ
|
Gallen - R
|
|
(22/34)
|
(12/34)
|
1.12
|
3.47
|
4.16
|
3.26
|
3.49
|
3.67
|
0.250
|
0.278
|
46.0%
|
26.0%
|
5.6%
|
41.8%
|
Edge – ARIZ
The Rockies starting rotation in 2023 was the worst in baseball, posting a horrid league-worst 1.53 WHIP and 5.91 ERA and it doesn’t project to be any better in 2024. Hell, it might be even worse. This Rockies rotation could be historically bad, ranking among the worst starting rotation that we’ve seen in roughly the last 30 years. There is no reason for optimism with this group.
Kyle Freeland will be the Rockies opening day starter, so I guess that makes him the best of the bunch, mostly by default. The left-hander started 29 games last season, producing a 6-14 record with twice as many below average starts (9) as above average ones (18). He posted a high 1.47 WHIP and 5.03 ERA, along with a 94/42 K/BB ratio. Freeland’s ERA metrics were all higher than his already high ERA, telling me that the ERA was well deserved and could have been even worse. Back in 2018 Freeland actually posted a fine 2.85 ERA over 202.1 innings in 2018, but that appears to be the outlier because his ERA over the next 5 seasons was a more typical 4.96. Freeland’s K rate also dropped to a career-low 13.9% last season, while the league average for starting pitchers was 22.1%. Freeland was never a flamethrower. He’s a pitch-to-contact type and that puts even more pressure on his less-than-reliable command. Hitter-friendly Coors Field hasn’t helped either.
Last season, the Dbacks starting rotation posted an unimpressive 19th ranked 1.34 WHIP and a 21st ranked 4.67 ERA. Despite those numbers, management felt mostly content with what they had, including pitching coach Brent Strom, who was instrumental in getting Brandon Pfaadt straightened out last season and also had a hand in the developments of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly over the last couple of seasons. It’s now being widely reported that the Dbacks have also signed free agent SP Jordan Montgomery, making their starting rotation even better than it was last season.
The Dback’s rotation starts with staff ace Zac Gallen, who is coming off a great season that earned him some deserved votes for the NL Cy Young Award as he helped carry the Dbacks to their improbable World Series run. Gallen started 32 regular season games with 22 of them grading as above average and just 11 grading as below. He posted a fine 17-9 record with a 1.33 WHIP and a 3.47 ERA over 210 innings with a stellar 220/46 K/BB ratio. Gallen’s ERA metrics were all consistent with his ERA. However, his postseason performance wasn’t quite as good, as he delivered a 2-3 record with a mediocre 1.34 WHIP and 4.51 ERA in his 6 postseason starts as well as a 24/14 K/BB ratio. My concern is that Gallen ended up throwing 243.2 innings in 2023. He had managed a 52% increase in workload from 2021 to 2022 just fine, but 2023 saw yet another 32% increase along with the stress of his first postseason run. I can’t help but wonder if that will impact Gallen’s 2024 performance and/or health. It wouldn’t be all that surprising if it does and Gallen takes a step back this season and possibly misses some time.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
HLD
|
RIP
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
COL
|
31
|
33
|
32
|
33
|
49.2%
|
28
|
57
|
0.66
|
30
|
66.6%
|
30
|
1.56
|
30
|
5.41
|
30
|
ARI
|
38
|
27
|
44
|
26
|
62.9%
|
15
|
76
|
0.51
|
16
|
72.1%
|
14
|
1.30
|
17
|
4.22
|
18
|
Edge – ARIZ
The Rockies had the worst bullpen in baseball last season, ranking dead last in WHIP (1.56) ERA (5.41( and runs allowed per inning (0.66)5.41. Jalen Beeks looks like a solid addition from the Rays, but any time the Rays put a guy on waivers, you have to wonder why. Justin Lawrence was decent last season with a 1.35 WHIP and 3.72 ERA over 42.2 innings. Jake Bird was a workhorse ,posted a 1.35 WHIP and 4.33 ERA over 89.1 innings and Brent Suter is now in Cincinnati now.
The Dbacks’ bullpen was nothing special last season, ranking 17th with a 1.30 WHIP, 18th with a 4.33 ERA and 16th with a 0.51 runs allowed per inning. Hopefully, close to a full season of Paul Sewald helps. The 33-year-old Sewald finally got the opportunity to be a primary closer in 2023 and racked up up a career-high 34 saves in 42 save opportunities, 21 with the Mariners and 13 after being traded to the Dbacks. Sewald posted a 1.15 WHIP and a 3.12 ERA over 60 innings with a 32.1% K rate which puts him right on the brink of being a top-10 closer, but he struggled in the postseason, giving up 12 run on13 hits and 5 walks with 22 Ks over 13.1 innings, but still recorded a win and 5 saves in 6 opportunities. If he can stay healthy, Sewald just might be the closer that the otherwise mediocre Dbacks pen has been looking for. Unfortunately, it was just announced that Sewald could be facing a fairly lengthy stint on the IL after being diagnosed with a Grade 2 left oblique strain.
With Sewald out, Kevin Ginkel is the most likely candidate to fill the close role for the Dbacks in the interim. Ginkel had his best season in 2023, posting a 9-1 record with 4 saves and 8 holds while posting a 0.98 WHIP and and 2.48 and registering career-highs in appearances (60), innings pitched (65.1) and Ks (70). The 29-year-old also induced ground balls at a career-high 50.3% clip and kept the ball inside the park with only 3 HRs allowed (0.4 HR/9) all season.
Offenses
Team
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SB
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
COL
|
0.310
|
20
|
78
|
30
|
0.156
|
20
|
7.4%
|
26
|
76
|
28
|
-19.9
|
30
|
25.5%
|
28
|
ARIZ
|
0.317
|
17
|
97
|
18
|
0.158
|
19
|
8.8%
|
12
|
166
|
2
|
8.9
|
6
|
20.4%
|
4
|
Edge – ARIZ
The Rockies didn’t have a good offense last season either. Even with all of the advantages that Coors Field brings, they posted just a 20th ranked .310 wOBA and a league-worst 78 wRC+.
Coors is a great park to hit in, so the Rockies should hit really well a home and they sort of do, posting a 7th ranked .335 wOBA, and a 5th ranked .285 BA. That compares to a 29th ranked .285 wOBA and a 28th ranked .228 BA wRC+ on the road. The problem is that Coors is also a great park for visiting teams to hit in. Pitches don’t break the same making them harder to control and command because there is less air resistance on the baseball to make it move. That makes hitting a lot easier.
There aren’t many positives about the Rockies’ offense. 33-year-old vet Kris Bryant, who posted a stellar .370 wOBA and 125 wRC+ for the Rockies in 2022, battled injuries last season, and dropped to a .302 wOBA and 73 wRC+.
25-year-old OF Nolan Jones could be one, after posted a .395 wOBA and 135 wRC+ in 106 games after his call-up from AAA, with 20 HRs and 20 steals. The interesting thing is that with an almost identical number of ABs, home and away, Nolan had a .397 wOBA at home and a .393 wOBA on the road, while hitting 10 HRs at home and 10 on the road.
In his first full season, 22-year-old SS Ezequiel Tovar only posted a .295 wOBA and 70 wRC+, but he did hit 15 HRs and played some outstanding defense, a huge plus for this pitch-to-contact, GB-oriented staff.
25-year-old OF Brenton Doyle hit well in the minors, but did not in his 126 MLB games, posting just a .257 wOBA and 43 wRC+, but did swipe 22 bases and also played elite defense. His bat needs be better and he did hit well in the minors.
29-year-old 2B/3B Ryan McMahon posted a .325 wOBA, but only an 88 wRC+ with 23 HRs in 152 games last season. He is also another good defender.
27-year-ild OF Sean Bouchard posted a .432 wOBA and 160 wRC+ in 21 games after his call-up and had good minor league numbers basically everywhere. He just needs to stay healthy.
The Dbacks had a slightly below average offense last season, posting a 17th ranked .317 wOBA and an 18th ranked 97 wRC+. They manufactured runs with a 2nd ranked 166 stolen bases and also led the league in triples, which is a byproduct of team speed. However, the Dbacks only hit a 22nd ranked 166 HRs. What the Dbacks lacked in power, they somewhat made up for by not striking out much. They had the 4th lowest K rate at 20.4%, and also ranked 12th in walk rate. They didn’t chase a lot of bad pitches.
With a lot of good contact hitters in the lineup, the Dbacks decided that they needed more power and Eugenio Suarez and Joc Pederson are two additions that should help in that department.
Suarez has been one of the most consistent sources of power over the past five-plus seasons, hitting 246 career HRs and over 30 four times. However, the 32-year-old veteran was only able to go deep 22 times for the Mariners in 2023. He also led the league in Ks with 214 while posting a .313 wOBA and 102 wRC+, but his 96 RBI kept him relevant. He was also able to draw 70 walks for a second straight season. That and his excellent defense at 3B kept him in the Mariners’ lineup for all 162 games even when the hits weren't falling. Suarez is a reasonable bounce-back candidate with power and he should benefit from a home-park upgrade after getting dealt from the Mariners this offseason.
The 31-year-old Pederson delivered an underwhelming .331 wOBA and 111 wRC+ with just 15 HRs for the Giant in 2023. He saw most of his playing time at DH and he's unlikely to play much in the field this season. We could see a rebound in 2024 from Pederson as well, with a more favorable home park than pitcher-friendly Oracle.
Suarez and Pederson will hopefully add some much needed power to last season’s holdovers
23-year-old NL Rookie of the Year OF Corbin Carroll posted a .370 wOBA and 133 wRC+ while hitting 25 HRs and stealing 55 bases.
30-year-old 2B/SS Ketel Marte produced a .361 wOBA and 127 wRC+ with 25 HRs.
32-year-old 1B Christian Walker posted a .351 wOBA and 120 wRC+ with 33 dingers and 30-year-old OFLourdes Gurriel Jr. added a .3229 wOBA and 106 wRC+ with 24 HRs.
24-year-old C Gabriel Moreno, who was acquired from the Blue Jays in a trade that sent Dalton Varsho to the Jays, posted just a mediocre .314 wOBA and a .103 wRC+ and hit just 7 HRs, but he was terrific behind the plate, throwing out 22 of 57 would-be base stealers (38.6%), while the league average was only 20%. He graded about average as a pitch framer, but his arm is deadly.
It’s unclear if either 23-year-old OF Alek Thomas or 24-year-old SS Geraldo Perdomo will hit, but both are excellent defensively and there’s also top prospect 21-year-old SS Jordan Lawla, another kid with power and speed waiting in the wings.
All in all, this could be a solid offense with Suarez and Pederson hopefully adding a little more punch to what was a contact-oriented offense that also steal bases.
Conclusion: I like the Dbacks to win this game. First, the Rockies have been historically bad on the road, losing 59 of their 81 road games last season. Second, Kyle Freeland v Zac Gallen is a joke. Freeland is awfuk, and while it’s true that I’m expecting some regression from Gallen, I think that’s more likely to come during the second half of the season, when the innings start piling up. Third, while the Dbacks pen was nothing to write home about, the Rockies pen was worse, much worse. Fourth, the Rockies can’t hit worth shit away from Coors The Dbacks should win this game.
Pick – ARIZ ML in a series of parlays