I am stunned! The Yanks get a great start from Carlos Rodam, who gave up 1 hit over 7 superb innings, but give him 0 run support. I can understand them not hitting JP Sears over 6 scoreless innings. He has talent. However, how in the hell do you not get anything off the A’s bullpen. Granted that the A’s are better than they were a season ago, but they’ve still lost twice as many games as they’ve won! There are times when this game defies logic and this was one of them.
I’m sure gonna need some mighty good results tonight. Here’s hoping Lady Luck is with me.
PHIL @ CIN
The 14-8 Phils hit the road, travelling to the 12-9 m
Reds, after sweeping the pathetic White Sox in Philadelphia over the weekend. The Reds just completed a three-ga,e sweep of the Angels and present a tougher challenge for the Phils than the White Sox.
Starting Pitchers
6:40
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
(8/32)
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K%
|
BB%
|
PHIL
|
Suarez - L
|
|
(4/4)
|
(0/4)
|
0.77
|
1.73
|
2.05
|
2.73
|
2.42
|
2.40
|
0.218
|
0.229
|
25.4%
|
28.4%
|
4.2%
|
CIN
|
Greene - R
|
|
(2/4)
|
(1/4)
|
1.31
|
4.35
|
2.58
|
3.62
|
3.77
|
3.12
|
0.318
|
0.257
|
31.3%
|
32.6%
|
9.8%
|
Edge – PHIL
Ranger Suarez has been nothing short of sensational this season. He’s started 4 games and delivered 4 above average starts, including a complete game shutout of the Rockies. Granted, the Rockies away from Coors stink, but it was still a damned impressive performance. This season, Suarez has given up 5 runs on 16 hits and 4 walks over over 26 innings with an impressive 27 Ks. Suarez remained a solid mid-rotation option behind Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola for the Phillies last season, While his ERA did jump from 3.65 to 4.18. his ERA metrics were all lower than his ERA and a jump in K rate from 19.5 percent to 22.0 percent helped offset a drop in his GB rate from 55.4% to 48.5%. A roughly average number of Ks and walks plus a healthy dose of GBs has been the formula throughout Suarez's career, and there's little reason to doubt that will continue to do that in 2024.
Hunter Greene has started 4 gams for the Reds with 2 grading as above average, 1 grading as average and 1 grading as below. He has given up 11 runs (10 earned)on 18 hits and 9 walks over 20.2 innings with a super impressive 30 Ks. Greene didn't pick up his first win until May 26 and a hip injury cost him two months during the summer. He struggled in his eight starts following his return in August, leaving him with a poor 142 WHIP and 4.82 ERA over 112 innings last season. The much-hyped flamethrowing righty did hit 105 mph in his 2023 debut and his slider also performed well on the heels of the fastball. Greene’s ERA metrics were better than his ERA, but, but many of the same problems Greene has encountered before were stgill there, namely that his change is still not very good and that he gave up too may HRs in Great American Ball Park (2.2 HR/9) at home for his career). He’s only 24, but big-league hitters can catch up to even elite velocity when they're sitting on it, and an improved change, Greene may well rack up the Ks, but will continue to battle inconsistency.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
PHIL
|
4
|
2
|
7
|
2
|
62.5%
|
27
|
0.43
|
30
|
1.17
|
4
|
5.78
|
30
|
25.6%
|
2
|
8.5%
|
13
|
CIN
|
4
|
3
|
4
|
2
|
74.1%
|
9
|
0.49
|
14
|
1.28
|
15
|
3.79
|
14
|
23.9%
|
8
|
9.5%
|
19
|
Edge – CIN, maybe but really close. Neither pen is anywhere near elite and I don’t trust either one.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
PHIL
|
4.36
|
15
|
0.317
|
14
|
98
|
18
|
0.143
|
12
|
9.6%
|
10
|
-0.8
|
18
|
37.6%
|
20
|
6.7%
|
21
|
23.0%
|
18
|
CIN
|
5.33
|
7
|
0.318
|
13
|
94
|
22
|
0.174
|
3
|
10.3%
|
4
|
2.8
|
4
|
40.1%
|
7
|
8.4%
|
7
|
26.0%
|
25
|
Edge – CUN, but closer than I wold have guessed. I guess hosting the Rockes over the weekend boosted the Phills numbers.
Conclusion: The oddsmakers lines tell me this is a close game and I agree. The Reds are the better hittig team and neither team has a very good bullpen. As for the two starting pitchers, I give Suarez the edge over Brown simply because he’s ben more consistent. I never know which Greene I’ll get on any given day and that’s a problem.
Pick – PHIL 1st 5 and full game MLs in two side bets
DET @ TB
The 12-10 Tigers took two of three from the Twins in Minnesota and nor travel to Flrida to face the 12-11 Rays, who dropped two of three to the Yanks over the weekend in Tampa.
Starting Pitchers
6:50
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K%
|
BB%
|
DET
|
Skubal - L
|
|
(3/4)
|
(1/4)
|
0.90
|
2.28
|
2.34
|
2.89
|
2.97
|
2.97
|
0.217
|
0.245
|
26.7%
|
28.3%
|
5.4%
|
TB
|
Llittell - R
|
|
(2/4)
|
(2/4)
|
1.33
|
2.14
|
2.78
|
2.47
|
3.30
|
3.48
|
0.306
|
0.267
|
27.4%
|
24.7%
|
5.6%
|
Edge – DET
Skubl has now started 4 games for the Tigers with 3 gradig as above averageand 1 grading as below. He has given up 8 runs (6 earned) on 14 hits and 5 walks over 23.2 innings with 26 Ks. Skubal finished 7-3 last season with 12 of his 15 starts grading as above average and just 3 grading as below. He posted a stellar 0.90 WHIP and 2.80 ERA with a superb 102/14 K/BB ratio over 80.1 innings, after returning from flexor tendon surgery. A healthy Skubal is a legitimate ace, but he’s exceeded 118 innings just once in his four big league seasons, so durability remains an issue. If Skubal can stay healthy, he should take his place as an elite starting pitcher and the anchor of this rotation.
Zack Littell has also started 4 games for the Rays with the first 2 v the Blue Jays and at the Rockies, grading as above average, but the last 2 both against the Angels, one at home and one in LA, both grading as below. He has given up 6 runs on 23 hits and 5 walks over 21 innings with 22 Ks.
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Littell spent time with three different organizations last season and finally settled into the Rays' rotation. Just four of the right-hander's 145 career appearances in the majors coming into 2023 came as a starter, so the role change came as a surprise. Even more surprising is that it worked out quite well, with Littell posting a 1.02 WHIP and 3.38 ERA with a 47/5 K/BB ratio over 64 innings covering 11 starts after moving into the Rays’ rotation full-time in late July. The Rays had Littell cut back on his four-seamer usage, up his two-seamer usage and begin incorporating a sweeper. IWhat seemed to help the most was straightening out his mechanics which suddenly turn him into an a solid strike-thrower.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
DET
|
9
|
4
|
7
|
6
|
82.9%
|
2
|
0.42
|
1
|
1.11
|
2
|
1.65
|
1
|
22.3%
|
17
|
8.2%
|
10
|
TB
|
6
|
4
|
7
|
4
|
66.4%
|
20
|
0.53
|
27
|
1.34
|
23
|
5.34
|
27
|
23.0%
|
12
|
9.2%
|
17
|
Edge – DET
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
TB
|
4.04
|
20
|
0.300
|
24
|
100
|
16
|
0.114
|
26
|
7.0%
|
27
|
2.8
|
5
|
34.9%
|
27
|
6.0%
|
27
|
23.8%
|
20
|
DET
|
3.86
|
22
|
0.288
|
25
|
87
|
24
|
0.118
|
25
|
9.2%
|
12
|
1.5
|
8
|
39.7%
|
9
|
8.0%
|
10
|
24.8%
|
24
|
Edge – TB, but smaller than I would have expected.
Conclusion: The Rays do have the better offense, but it’s close. The Tigers, however, have the better bullpen. That leaves the two starting pitchers and Skubal is elite. As for Littell, he’s pitched well, but he’s not in SkubL’s class. For five innings, I’ll take my chances with Skubal.
Pick – DET 1st 5 ML in a side bet
MIA @ ATL
The 6-17 Marlins have struggled this season mostly because their starting rotation has been decimated by injuries. They ae coming off a 2-2 split of their four-game series with the Cubs at Wrigley and now they travel to Atlanta to face the 14-6 Braves. The Braves took two of three from the Rangers over the weekend, but lost the series finale last night 6-4.
Starting Pitchers
7:20
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K%
|
BB%
|
MIA
|
Weathers - L
|
|
(2/4)
|
(2/4)
|
1.35
|
2.70
|
4.97
|
4.13
|
4.29
|
3.98
|
0.349
|
0.417
|
41.8%
|
24.7%
|
10.1%
|
ATL
|
Lopez - R
|
|
(3/3)
|
(3/3)
|
0.94
|
0.50
|
2.12
|
2.23
|
3.93
|
3.71
|
0.233
|
0.264
|
36.4%
|
26.5%
|
8.8%
|
Edge – ATL
Ryan Weathers has started 4 games for the Marlins this season with the last 2 grading as above average after 2 below average outings in his first 2 starts. He has given up 6 runs on 8 hits and 9 walks over 20 innings with 22 Ks.
Weathers, who was the 7th overall pick by the Padres in the 2018 draft, was traded to the Marlins at the trade deadline last season. He started 12 games between the Padres and the Marlins, with three times as many below average start (9) as above average ones (3). He finished 1-8 with a horrible 1.68 WHIP and 5.55 ERA. However, Weathers’ ERA metrics, while still bad, were all considerably lower than his unsightly ERA. He still has good velocity (97 mph) and at 24 may have figured some things out in Miami.
Reynaldo Lopez has started 3 games for the Braves this season and delivered 3 quality starts. He has given up a total of just 1 run on 11 hits and 6 walks over 18 innings with 18 Ks. Lopez was a setup man for three different teams in 2023, splitting time between the White Sox, Angels (trade) and Guardians (waiver claim). The now 30-year-old Lopez, working exclusively out of the bullpen, finished 3-7 with a 1.27 WHIP and 3.27 ERA over 66 innings with an 83/34 K/BB ratio. He notched a career-best 22 holds and 6 saves while increasing his four-seamer velocity to an impressive 98.2 mph average. He relied on that pitch more than ever, throwing the heater a career-high 64.3% of the time and it worked to the tune of a career-best 29.9% K rate. I thought that Lopez was probably best suited to a bullpen role, given his career splits, but he is definitely proving me wrong.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
MIA
|
1
|
8
|
4
|
2
|
66.2%
|
21
|
0.60
|
26
|
1.50
|
28
|
5.30
|
26
|
22.8%
|
14
|
11.1%
|
28
|
ATL
|
7
|
3
|
7
|
6
|
76.1%
|
8
|
0.51
|
9
|
1.28
|
15
|
3.48
|
10
|
22.0%
|
20
|
8.3%
|
11
|
Edge – ATL big
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
MIA
|
3.70
|
25
|
0.276
|
29
|
71
|
29
|
0.110
|
29
|
7.0%
|
27
|
-0.5
|
17
|
38.7%
|
15
|
7.2%
|
15
|
21.8%
|
12
|
ATL
|
6.25
|
1
|
0.366
|
1
|
128
|
1
|
0.192
|
2
|
8.8%
|
17
|
0.6
|
9
|
44.5%
|
2
|
9.8%
|
2
|
22.0%
|
13
|
Edge – ATL huge
Conclusion: The Braves are the best hitting team in baseball, while the Marlins are on of the worst. The Braves also have the vastly superior bullpen. As for the two starting pitchers, Ryan Weather has looked better in his last two starts than he has at any point in his still very young career, but Reynaldo Lopez has just been incredibly good so far this season. The Braves have all the edges here and should wi this game. We have the best team in the NL East facing the worst. I’m all in on the Braves tonight.
Pick – ATL 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
SD @ COL
The 12-12 Padres just dropped two of three to the Blue Jays over the weekend at Petco and now travel to Coors Field to face off with the 5-17 Rockies, who return home after getting swept by the Phils in Philadelphia.
Starting Pitchers
8:40
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K%
|
BB%
|
SD
|
Cease - R
|
|
(4/4)
|
(0/4)
|
0.93
|
1.99
|
3.73
|
2.88
|
4.02
|
3.80
|
0.224
|
0.307
|
36.5%
|
30.0%
|
12.2%
|
COL
|
Gimber - L
|
|
(1/4)
|
(2/4)
|
1.50
|
4.95
|
5.48
|
5.23
|
3.88
|
4.18
|
0.364
|
0.364
|
38.7%
|
20.5%
|
9.1%
|
Edge – SD big
Dylan Cease has started 4 games for the Padres and delivered 4 above average outings. He has given up a total of 8 runs (5 earned) on 10 hits and 11 walks over 22.2 innings with an impressive 27 Ks.
Cease finished second in voting for the AL Cy Young in 2022, but struggled posting a mediocre 1.42 WHIP and 4.58 ERA with a 214/79 K/BB ratio over 177 innings last season. While some regression wasn't all that surprising, the extent of it was worse than anticipated. Even Cease’s K rate was affected, dropping over 3%. A .330 BABIP and 41.5 percent hard-hit rate were both career worsts.
Austin Gomber has also started 4 games with just 1 above average start, 1 average start and 2 below average ones. He has given up 11 runs on 22 hits and 8 walks over 20 innings with 18 Ks.
The age-old issue of Coors Field was as present as ever for Gomber last season, which is evidenced by his 7.05 ERA in 15 home starts compared to a 3.68 ERA in 12 starts on the road. Gomber made 27 starts last season, but was just too inconsistent to rely on, especially at home where he was awful.
Bullpen
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
SD
|
6
|
4
|
7
|
7
|
67.8%
|
19
|
0.51
|
14
|
1.26
|
10
|
3.94
|
16
|
21.4%
|
23
|
9.4%
|
COL
|
4
|
4
|
1
|
4
|
68.4%
|
16
|
0.71
|
24
|
1.67
|
30
|
5.20
|
24
|
17.7%
|
30
|
10.4%
|
Edge – SD, the Rockies ‘ pen is really bad.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
SD
|
4.92
|
10
|
0.329
|
6
|
111
|
8
|
0.153
|
10
|
9.8%
|
8
|
1.8
|
7
|
36.0%
|
23
|
6.4%
|
23
|
19.7%
|
5
|
COL
|
3.64
|
26
|
0.303
|
21
|
75
|
28
|
0.128
|
23
|
7.2%
|
26
|
-3.0
|
30
|
39.7%
|
9
|
8.1%
|
8
|
26.6%
|
28
|
Edge – SD
Conclusion: While the Rockies aren’t quite as offensively inept at Coors (3.78 rpg v 3,54 on the road), thewy still aren’t very good. By contrast, the Padres can hit. Just ask Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the Dodgers. The Padres also have the much better bullpen and the much better starting pitcher. The Padres have all the edges.
Pick SD 1st 5 and full game ML in a series of parlay