For what it’s worth, while it pains me to say so, last night was an unmitigated disaster for me. I felt pretty good about almost everything, but much like life itself, when you least expect it, shit happens and sometimes you end up covered with it. That was my Tuesday. It looked great on paper, almost everything went sideways and I got my sorry ass kicked. I finished the day a miserable -31.17 units, leaving me a paltry +4.38 units for this young season.
I’ll start with what went right. That won’t take nearly as long. The short answer is very little. Specifically:
- The Dodgers, after looking totally inept against one of the worst pitchers in baseball in Patrick Corbin, rallied for 3 runs over the final two innings in a 4-1 win at the Nats.
- That brings us to the Twinkies who trailed 5-1 going into the final three innings, which killed my 1st 5 bet, but as befits the worst team in baseball, the White Sox crappy ir bullpen gave up 5 runs over the final 3 innings, turning that 5-1 lead into a 6-5 Twinkies win.
- I didn’t trust the Braves Max Fried enough to use the Braves as a 1st 5 bet because he had struggled so far this season, so of course he went out and tossed a complete game 3-hit shutout of the Marlins. The Braves won 5-0 and I did cash my full game ML bet.
- The Mariners jumped on Dan Dunning early for 4 runs in the first three innings and rode Logan Gilbert’s arm to an easy 4-0 1st 5 ML win.
Now we get to the painful part, what I got wrong.
- It starts with the Dodgers. James Paxton wasn’t good, but he did hold the Nats to just 1 run. Unfortunately, that was one more than the Dodgers could muster against one of the worst pitchers in baseball in Patrick Corbin. Kiss that 1st 5 goodbye.
- The Rays Ryan Pepiot was fine in his six innings, giving up just 1 run, but that was one more than the Rays were able to score against the Tigers miraculously rejuvenated Kenta Maeda. They finally broke through for two runs in the 6th, but that was an inning too late for my 1st 5 bet.
- The Twinkies Pablo Lopez was touched up for 3 runs in the 4th, turning a 1-0 lead into a 3-1 deficit on an infield single, a walk and then a HR. Meanwhile the Twinkies couldn’t figure out Erick Fedd as another 1st 5 bet hit the dust.
- Finally, we get to the Orioles. If this were my old days in a Catholic grade school, the nuns would be making me write 100 times on the blackboard (that’s what we had back then) after rapping my fingers with a yardstick (we had those too) “If a line looks wrong, it’s not, you are”. This line looked suspiciously cheap to me. As it turned out it was. Grayson Rodriguez had nothing. The Angels jumped on him for 7 runs and it was ovr before the team finished the 4th.
Fortunately, today is a new day and it’s still April. There’s plenty of time to right this ship. We have a full slate and there are a few games that I like tonight, so let’s get to it. Here’s my card.
ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team #2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
1.28
|
2
|
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
ATL ML
|
121
|
2
|
|
NYY ML
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
123
|
2
|
|
NYY ML
|
ATL ML
|
115
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
2
|
Sides
|
CHI C 1st 5 ML
|
|
120
|
2
|
|
CHI C ML
|
|
-105
|
2
|
Here’s how I see these three games.
OAK @ NYY
After losing the first game of this series with the 9-15 A’s 2-0 on Monday, the 16-8 Yankees bounced back yesterday with a 4-3 win at Yankee Stadium to even the series at one game apiece.
Starting Pitchers
7:05
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
(8/32)
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
OAK
|
Boyle – R
|
|
(2/4)
|
(2/4)
|
1.71
|
7.23
|
4.27
|
4.02
|
4.64
|
4.89
|
0.356
|
0.329
|
20.9%
|
14.0%
|
NYY
|
Schmidt - R
|
|
(2/4)
|
(2/4)
|
1.55
|
3.15
|
4.16
|
3.51
|
3.37
|
3.52
|
0.365
|
0.325
|
26.7%
|
9.3%
|
Edge – NYY
Joe Boyle has started four games for the A’s with two grading as above average and two grading as below. He has given up 16 runs (15 earned) on 20 hits and 12 walks over 18.2 innings with 18 Ks. Boyle’s statistical profile is not very impressive with a very high WHIP and ERA. His ER metrics, whle not good, are all close to 3 runs lower than his inflated ERA, telling me that Boyle hasn’t pitched as badly ashis ERA would suggest. A BABIP that’s currently over .400 should come down and that should bring his ERA down to where Boyle’s metrics say it should be in the low to mid 4s. an 18/12 K/BB ratio doesn’t help either.
The 6-foot-7 Boyle has always had decent stuff, but he didn't have good enough command to project as a starter. Boyle has much better pure stuff than most A’s pitchers. His fastball averages 97 mph and he can touch 100 mph. His upper-80s slider gives him a second plus pitch, and he throws his third-pitch curve 6.4% of the time. His command woes, a 17.8% walk rate in the minors last season and a 14% rate so far this season remains problematic.
Clarke Schmidt has also started 4 games for the Yankees this season with two grading as above average and two grading as below. He has given up 8 runs (7 earned) on 23 hits and 8 walks over 8 innings with 23 Ks. Schiidt’s statistical profile looks pretty solid. His WHIP is higg, but not as high as Boyle’s. His ERA is good and his ERA metrics are maybe a little higher than his ERA, but not by a significant margin. Schmidt if fanning a kittle more than a batter per innings and his 23/8 K/BB ratio is fine. If I have a criticism, it’s that Schmidt is still looking to iron out some efficiency issues as he hasn't completed six innings in any of his four starts.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
OAK
|
4
|
3
|
4
|
3
|
73.0%
|
10
|
0.51
|
7
|
1.37
|
25
|
2.99
|
7
|
20.2%
|
25
|
9.1%
|
16
|
NYY
|
9
|
3
|
12
|
5
|
71.9%
|
12
|
0.40
|
6
|
1.26
|
10
|
2.96
|
6
|
22.0%
|
20
|
9.9%
|
21
|
Edge – NYY
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
OAK
|
2.86
|
29
|
0.279
|
27
|
85
|
25
|
0.136
|
18
|
8.4%
|
22
|
-2.5
|
27
|
37.6%
|
20
|
6.8%
|
20
|
27.7%
|
30
|
NYY
|
4.55
|
13
|
0.321
|
12
|
112
|
7
|
0.134
|
20
|
11.9%
|
1
|
-1.3
|
25
|
38.1%
|
19
|
6.9%
|
18
|
20.4%
|
9
|
Edge – NYY
Conclusion: The Yankees are the much better hitting team and also have the much better bullpen. As for the two starting pitchers, their stats aren’t all that different. I think the Yanks might have a small edge there. Schmidt’s weakness has been that he doesn’t go deep, but fortunately, the Yanks have a good bullpen. Boyle’s weakness has been his command, or rather his lack of it. That would tend to make Schmidt the better starting pitcher here, at least for five innings. I’m just betting on the better team to simply win the game at home and that is the Yankees.
Pick – NYY 1st 5 and full game MLs in a couple of parlays with the Braves
MIA @ ATL
The 6-19 Marlins got beat again 5-0 last night by the 16-6 Braves, who got a stellar outing from Max Fried and have nw won the first two games of this series.
Starting Pitchers
7:20
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
MIA
|
Sanchez - R
|
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
1.50
|
6.14
|
3.99
|
5.75
|
6.02
|
5.17
|
0.342
|
0.319
|
8.8%
|
8.8%
|
ATL
|
Lopez – R
|
|
(3/3)
|
(0/3)
|
0.94
|
0.50
|
2.08
|
2.16
|
3.83
|
3.63
|
0.224
|
0.233
|
26.5%
|
8.8%
|
Edge – ATL big
Sixto Sanchez has worked exclusively out of the Marlins’ bullpen this season, giving up 7 runs (5 earned) on 8 hits and 3 walks over 7.1 innings with 3 Ks. Hos statistical profile leaves a lot to be desired, but it is based on a very small sample size. Sanchez will be making his first MLB start since Oct. 8, 2020, when he faced the Braves in Game 3 of the NLDS. After missing most of the next three seasons while recovering from shoulder problems, He has been healthy so far this season. The 25-year-old right-hander hasn't gone more than two innings in any of his seven appearances, so Sanchez isn’t expected to work more than two or three innings before turning the game over to the Marlins’ pen. Sanchez posted a 1.21 WHIP and 3.46 ERA with a 33/11 K/BB ratio over 39 innings as a rookie back in 2020, but that's the last time he was truly healthy.
Reynaldo Lopez has started 3 games for the Braves this season and delivered 3 quality starts. He has given up a total of just 1 run on 11 hits and 6 walks over 18 innings with 18 Ks. Lopez was a setup man for three different teams in 2023, splitting time between the White Sox, Angels (trade) and Guardians (waiver claim). The now 30-year-old Lopez, working exclusively out of the bullpen, finished 3-7 with a 1.27 WHIP and 3.27 ERA over 66 innings with an 83/34 K/BB ratio. He notched a career-best 22 holds and 6 saves while increasing his four-seamer velocity to an impressive 98.2 mph average. He relied on that pitch more than ever, throwing the heater a career-high 64.3% of the time and it worked to the tune of a career-best 29.9% K rate. I thought that Lopez was probably best suited to a bullpen role, given his career splits, but he is definitely proving me wrong.
Edge – ATL
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
MIA
|
1
|
8
|
4
|
2
|
66.2%
|
21
|
0.60
|
26
|
1.50
|
28
|
5.30
|
26
|
22.8%
|
14
|
11.1%
|
28
|
ATL
|
7
|
3
|
7
|
6
|
76.1%
|
8
|
0.51
|
9
|
1.28
|
15
|
3.48
|
10
|
22.0%
|
20
|
8.3%
|
11
|
Edge – ATL big
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
MIA
|
3.70
|
25
|
0.276
|
29
|
71
|
29
|
0.110
|
29
|
7.0%
|
27
|
-0.5
|
17
|
38.7%
|
15
|
7.2%
|
15
|
21.8%
|
12
|
ATL
|
6.25
|
1
|
0.366
|
1
|
128
|
1
|
0.192
|
2
|
8.8%
|
17
|
0.6
|
9
|
44.5%
|
2
|
9.8%
|
2
|
22.0%
|
13
|
Edge – ATL huge
Conclusion: The Braves are the best hitting team in baseball, while the Marlins are one of the worst. The Braves also have the vastly superior bullpen. As for the two starting pitchers, Reynaldo Lopez has been nothing short of spectacular so far this season, with three quality starts in his three outings. Sixto Sancez hasn’t impressed anyone so far. Granted, we have a very small sample size for him, but still… Is there any reason not to be all over the Braves here? I can’t find even one.
Pick – ATL 1st 5 and full game ML in a couple of parlays with the Yankees
HOU @ CHI C
The struggling 7-17 Astros lost the first game of this series to the 14-9 Cubs at Wrigley 7-2 last night.
Starting Pitchers
7:40
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HTN
|
Arrighetti - R
|
|
)/2)
|
(2/2)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CHI C
|
Taillon – R
|
|
(1/1)
|
(0/1)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Edge – CHI C
We don’t have a big enough sample size to provide a reasonable profile for either pitcher. Here’s what I have.
Spencer Arrighetti has started two games for the Astros this season and both graded as below average. He has given up 9 runs on 11 hits and 5 walks over 7 innings with 8 Ks.
Arrighetti is currently being used in the rotation spot vacated by Cristian Javier (neck), who was placed on the 15-day IL over the weekend. The rookie was bludgeoned for7 runs over 3 innings in his MLB debut earlier this month at the Royals, but was better in his second start April 15, holding the Braves to 2 runs over 4 innings. However, Arrighetti has yet to go more than 4 innings in either start. His fastball averaged 95.8 mph in his two MLB starts, but only sat in the low-90s in the minors. Arrighetti's high-80s cutter and low-80s sweeper are his go-to secondary pitches, with the sweeper grading as his best pitch. The 24-year-old righty has poor command, with a 9.1% walk rate at AA in 2023 the only time he was under 11% since 2022.
Jameson Taillon picked up the win Friday against the Marlins, allowing just 1 run on 3 hits while striking out 4 over 5 innings. Taillon didn't show any signs of rust in his first start of the season, holding the Marlins to a solo HR in the 4th. It was an encouraging outing from the 32-year-old right-hander. The Cubs activated Taillon (back) from the 15-day IL the day before his start v the Marlins. Taillon was mediocre last season. He’s a fly ball pitcher and can be successful provided he doesn't walk many hitters and generates an above average K rate. He has never been dominant, but his usually low walk rate, and low BABIP have helped him remain a league average pitcher. Last season, Taillon maintained a low walk rate, but his .292 BABIP was its highest since 2018. His 1.57 HR/9 was also a career worst. Relying on a non-dominant fly ball pitcher is always risky and can backfire at any time.
Bullpen
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HOU
|
2
|
8
|
2
|
2
|
63.9%
|
24
|
0.61
|
28
|
1.51
|
29
|
5.36
|
28
|
19.6%
|
29
|
10.7%
|
26
|
CHC
|
7
|
4
|
5
|
4
|
71.9%
|
12
|
0.51
|
17
|
1.30
|
19
|
3.99
|
17
|
23.6%
|
10
|
9.5%
|
19
|
Edge - CHI C
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
HOU
|
4.08
|
19
|
0.328
|
7
|
116
|
4
|
0.143
|
12
|
8.5%
|
20
|
-2.9
|
29
|
39.6%
|
11
|
7.8%
|
11
|
17.3%
|
2
|
CHC
|
5.48
|
5
|
0.329
|
6
|
108
|
9
|
0.162
|
7
|
10.0%
|
5
|
-0.4
|
16
|
40.8%
|
5
|
8.8%
|
5
|
22.3%
|
14
|
Edge – CHI C
Strangely, the Astros actually have the better wRC+, but everything else here points to the Cubs.
Conclusion: What in the hell has happened to the Astros? They have been one of the league’s best teams for several years and suddenly this season it’s all turned to shit. Although it’s close, the Cubs appear to be the better hitting team here. They’ve also had the better bullpen. Jameson Taillon may only be an average starting pitcher, but that still males him better than Spencer Arrighetti.
Pick – CHI C 1st 5 and full game MLs in a couple of side bets