For what it’s worth, yesterday was a second consecutive good. I used four teams and six sides on my parlay card,the Braves a1st 5 and full game MLs, the Tigers 1st 5 ML, The Astros 1st 5 and full game MLs, and the Mariners 1st 5 ML. Once again almost everything went right, with the sole exception of the Brave 1st 5 ML. I alo lost a side bet on the Pirates 1st 5.
I finished +19.32 units for the day, leaving me+13.18 units for the season.
I’m just going to keep doing what has always worked for me and hopefully I’ll be able to stay on track this time.
Today is another new day and the MLB season is still very young, so there’s plenty of time left to make some money. We have a twelve-game slate today and there not all that much that I like, so let’s get to it. Here’s my small card.
ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team #2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
LAD ML
|
192
|
2
|
|
ATL ML
|
LAD ML
|
1.96
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
2
|
Sides
|
NYM 1st 5 ML
|
|
-125
|
2
|
|
CIN 1st 5 ML
|
|
119
|
2
|
Here’s how I see things shaking out tonight.
CHI C @ NYM
The 17-11 Cubs dropped two of three to the Red Sox at Fenway over the weekend, including a 5-4 loss last night and a 17-0 mauling on Saturday. The 14-13 Mets dropped two of three to the Cards, but avoided getting swept with a 4-2 ii-inning win yesterday.
Starting Pitchers
7:`10
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
CHI C
|
Taillon - R
|
|
(2/2)
|
(0/2)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NYM
|
Severino - R
|
|
(4/5)
|
(1/5)
|
1.26
|
2.67
|
3.58
|
3.31
|
3.48
|
3.57
|
0.290
|
0.304
|
22.4%
|
7.8%
|
Edge – NYM
Bullpens – N/A this is a 1st 5 bet only
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
CHI C
|
5.14
|
6
|
0.320
|
11
|
103
|
15
|
0.154
|
9
|
9.4%
|
8
|
-0.1
|
14
|
38.2%
|
18
|
8.8%
|
5
|
23.1%
|
15
|
NYM
|
4.56
|
15
|
0.316
|
14
|
104
|
14
|
0.141
|
18
|
8.9%
|
13
|
-0.7
|
20
|
36.6%
|
26
|
7.5%
|
13
|
19.7%
|
5
|
Edge – CHI C, but close
Conclusion:
I can’t tell which of these teams is actually the better one. I don’t know. The Cubs hit a kittle better. They average a little over a half a run more per game with a slightly better wOBA and ISO, but their respective wRC+ numbers are almost identical. However, of the two starting pitchers, I’m inclined to give Luis Severino the edge. I followed both of these guys closely when they were with the Yankees. Taillon has only started two games since coming off the IL (back), but both starts were solid, giving up 1 run over 5 innings v the Marlins, and 2 (1 earned over 5.2 innings v the Astros. However, Taillon has been mostly league-average since his early days with the Pirates before undergoing Tommy John Surgery. He is an extreme flyball pitcher and that means that he needs to limit his walks and HRs and he’s done that so far with 1 HR allowed and 2 walks, but his K rate is definitely lacking, hovering between 18-23% in recent seasons. I expect Tailon to regress to the league-average pitcher that he's become in recent seasons. By contrast, I think there’s a lot more upside with Luis Severino, with 4 above average starts to just 1 below average one. His WHIP, ERA and metrics are all solid and when he’s on Severino has better stuff than Taillon.
Pick – NYM 1st 5 ML in a side bet
ATL @ SEA
The 19-7 Braves took two of three from the Guardians in Atlanta, including a close 10-iining 4-3 win yesterday. The 15-13 Mariners also took two of three from the visiting Diamondbacks over the weekend.
Starting Pitchers
9:40
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
ATL
|
Fried – L
|
|
(2/5)
|
(3/5)
|
1.38
|
4.97
|
3.48
|
3.95
|
3.53
|
3.63
|
0.308
|
0.300
|
16.5%
|
8.3%
|
SEA
|
Miller - R
|
|
(3/2)
|
(2/3)
|
0.99
|
2.22
|
4.74
|
4.57
|
3.91
|
3.85
|
0.271
|
0.345
|
26.1%
|
9.9%
|
Edge – ATL
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
ATL
|
9
|
4
|
8
|
3
|
72.8%
|
13
|
0.44
|
9
|
1.24
|
13
|
3.46
|
8
|
23.0%
|
12
|
7.8%
|
2
|
SEA
|
2
|
3
|
7
|
1
|
79.5%
|
2
|
0.33
|
2
|
1.37
|
20
|
2.47
|
1
|
20.4%
|
23
|
10.7%
|
22
|
Edge - SEA
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
ATL
|
9
|
4
|
8
|
3
|
72.8%
|
13
|
0.44
|
9
|
1.24
|
13
|
3.46
|
8
|
23.0%
|
SEA
|
2
|
3
|
7
|
1
|
79.5%
|
2
|
0.33
|
2
|
1.37
|
20
|
2.47
|
1
|
20.4%
|
Edge – SEA
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
ATL
|
5.73
|
1
|
0.353
|
1
|
123
|
2
|
0.176
|
2
|
8.6%
|
15
|
1.8
|
6
|
45.5%
|
1
|
9.4%
|
2
|
22.3%
|
16
|
SEA
|
3.70
|
25
|
0.295
|
25
|
95
|
21
|
0.137
|
22
|
9.3%
|
9
|
-1.0
|
21
|
41.6%
|
4
|
7.5%
|
13
|
28.2%
|
30
|
Edge – ATL huge
Conclusion: Thee’s not much to add to the stats when it comes to the Braves offense. They are the best hitting team in baseball and even on those rare occasions when they struggle, they seem to always find a way to hit in the clutch and win games late, kike they did yesterday. The Mariners, on the other hand, have struggled to score runs, ranking in the bottom third of the league in most offensive categories, including runs per game, wOBA, wRC+ and ISO. They’ve also struck out more often than any other team. The Braves’ bullpen isn’t bad, but the Mariners pen has been one of the better units in baseball so far. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and it may surprise you that I’m giving the Braves the edge with veteran lefty Mas Fried. The only question with Fried is his healthy and right now, he looks healthy. Fried is coming off his best outing of the season, a complete game 3-hit shutout of the Marlins. Granted it was only the Marlins, but it’s not like Fried hasn’t done that before and he looks healthy and back to his old self. Young Bryce Miller has also pitcher fairly well for the Mariners this season with 3 of his 5 starts grading as above average and 2 grading as below. His WHIP and ERA are excellent, but his ERA metrics ae all close to or more than 2 runs higher than that ERA. That’s telling me to expect some regression from Miller. The over 70-point discrepancy between his wOBA and xwOBA is telling me the same thing. I think that I’d rather back Fried here, especially with that awesome Braves offense.
Pick – ATL 1st 5 and full game MLs in a couple of parlays with the Dodgers.
CIN @ SD
The 15-13 Reds dropped two of three at the Rangers over the weekend, while the 14-17 Padres were getting swept by the Phils at Petco by a combined score of 22-10.
Starting Pitchers
9:40
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
CIN
|
Lodolo – L
|
|
(2/3)
|
(1/3)
|
1.06
|
2.12
|
3.38
|
2.04
|
3.36
|
3.02
|
0.273
|
0.296
|
28.6%
|
5.7%
|
SD
|
Waldron - R
|
|
(3/5)
|
(2/5)
|
1.44
|
3.96
|
4.55
|
4.08
|
4.42
|
4.35
|
0.314
|
0.339
|
17.9%
|
6.9%
|
Edge – CIN
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only bet
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
CIN
|
4.96
|
9
|
0.304
|
20
|
87
|
25
|
0.153
|
11
|
10.1%
|
4
|
5.8
|
1
|
39.8%
|
9
|
8.5%
|
8
|
26.8%
|
28
|
SD
|
4.81
|
10
|
0.322
|
9
|
109
|
7
|
0.147
|
14
|
9.1%
|
12
|
0.2
|
11
|
39.4%
|
13
|
7.5%
|
13
|
19.7%
|
5
|
Edge – CIN, but closer than it appears.
Conclusion: It’s tough to really be sure of which team has the better offense in this one. The Reds hold most of the statistical edges. They score slightly more runs per game with a better ISO walk rate, hard-hit rate and barrel rate. However, the Padres have the slightly better wOBA, and most importantly, a 22-point better wRC+, and that’s the one stat that is park-adjusted. That’s a big deal in his matchup because while the Reds play their home games at the bandbox known as “Great American”, while the Padres pay theirs at spacious, pitcher-friendly “Petco”. That skews the offensive stats for these teams. We next turn to the two starting pitchers, and that’s where I think that the Reds have a big edge. Nick Lodolo has only made 3 starts and two of them were outstanding. He held the White Sox to just 1 hit over 5.2 scoreless innings while striking out 10, and yes I realize it was the White Sox. He then held the Angels to 1 run, but 7 hits over 6.1 innings with 6 more Ks. Lodolo sruggled more in his last start v the Phils, giving up 3 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks over 5 innings with only 4 Ks. His WHIP, ERA and ERA metrics are all very good and his 28.6% K rate is elite. By contrast, Matt Waldron has started 5 games for the Padres with 3 grading as above average and 2 grading as below. Waldron’s WHIP is high, and his ERA and ERA metrics are all mediocre, as is his K rate. Their respective statistical profiles giveLodolo every edge here and that’s how I’m betting it.
Pick – CIN 1st 5 ML in a side bet
LAD @ ARIZ
The 19-12 Dodgers took two of three from the Blue Jays in Toronto over the weekend, but lost the final game 3-1 to an outstanding Kevin Gausman outing.
Starting Pitchers
9:40
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
LAD
|
Paxton – L
|
|
(2/4)
|
(2/4)
|
1.55
|
2.61
|
5.30
|
5.82
|
6.19
|
6.90
|
0.321
|
0.362
|
12.4%
|
19.1%
|
ARIZ
|
Henry – L
|
|
(1/5)
|
(4/5)
|
1.60
|
5.55
|
5.16
|
4.56
|
3.80
|
3.89
|
0.386
|
0.358
|
21.4%
|
8.0%
|
Edge – None big enough to bet on
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
LAD
|
5
|
6
|
11
|
3
|
68.2%
|
19
|
0.50
|
16
|
1.15
|
8
|
3.75
|
12
|
19.5%
|
27
|
9.6%
|
14
|
ARIZ
|
3
|
8
|
6
|
6
|
64.8%
|
25
|
0.56
|
20
|
1.19
|
9
|
4.31
|
20
|
22.4%
|
13
|
6.9%
|
1
|
Edge – LAD I can’t believe that I just wrote that.
Offense
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
LAD
|
5.27
|
4
|
0.349
|
2
|
124
|
1
|
0.168
|
3
|
10.2%
|
3
|
-0.1
|
14
|
44.6%
|
2
|
9.0%
|
4
|
22.0%
|
14
|
ARIZ
|
5.31
|
3
|
0.322
|
9
|
104
|
12
|
0.144
|
16
|
9.6%
|
7
|
-0.2
|
17
|
37.2%
|
21
|
7.2%
|
18
|
19.2%
|
3
|
Edge – LAD
Conclusion: The Dodgers are the better hitting team here. Somehow, the Diamondbacks average slightly more runs per game than the Dodgers. I suspect that might have something to do with the 32 runs that the Diamondbacks scored in the first three games of the season v the Rockies, as well as the 17 runs they scored at the Giants and the 14 they scored at the Cards. However, every other offensive stat that I use points to the Dodgers. Amazingly, we now have found a bullpen worse than the Dodgers. Other than a slightly lower K rate and slightly higher walk rate, the Dodger pen holds every other statistical edge when comparing these two pens. I still think that the Dodger pen isn’t very good, but the Dbacks pen is even worse. That brings us to the starting pitching matchup. Veteran lefty James Paxton hasn’t been very good this season, his first with the Dodgers. Yeah, he does have 2 above average starts in his 4 outings but he also has 2 below average ones. Paxton has an inexplicably excellent ERA, but his ERA metrics are awful, all almost 3 full runs higher than his ERA! His K rate is poor and his walk rate is higher than his K rate, a lot higher. Paxton has walked 17, while only striking out 11 in just under 21 innings. That’s dreadful! As for the other guy, I can’t say that I think very much of Tommy Henry either. I don’t. Only one of his 5 starts have graded as above average while the other 4 all graded as below. Henry’s WHIP and ERA are both high and his ERA metrics, while slightly better, aren’t good either. I don’t like either one of these guys, so I’m staying away from the 1st 5 here. The Dodgers have the better of two lousy pens and the much better offense.
Pick – LAD ML in a couple of parlays with the Braves.