For what it’s worth, yesterday was a barely profitable day. I used just two teams and 3 sides on my parlay card, the Braves 1st 5 and full game MLs and the Dodgers full game ML. I also had a couple of side bets om the Mryd 2st 6 ML and the Reds 1st 5 ML. I cashed with the Cubs Reds and Dodgers, but only got a push on the Braves 1st 5 and a 2-1 loss with the Braves ML.
I finished +3.50 units for the day, leaving me+16.68 units for the season.
We got a tremendous out from the Mets’ Luis Severino, who tossed 8 innings, giving up just 1 run in the 8th to cash my 1st 5 bet 1-0. A solo leadoff Brandon Nimmo HR gave Severina all the margin that he needed to cash m 1st 5 bet, outdueling the Cubs Jameson Taillon. The Reds’ Nick Lodolo was dominant last night holding the Padres to just 1 hit, a Jurickson Profar solo HR to lead off the bottom of the 1st, while striking out 10. The Dodgers finally broke open a 2-1 game with 4 runs in the 5th on the way to an 8-4 win over the Diamondbacks in the desert.
My only loser was the Braves and that was a surprise, as Mitch Garver, hit a two-run game-ending HR in the bottom of the 9th to give the Mariners a 2-1 win over the Braves in a game that was dominated by two spectacular starting pitching performances by the Braves’ Max Fried and the Mariners Bryce Miller, who each threw six no-hit innings. It was just the seventh time in the last 50 years that both teams carried a no-hitter into the 7th and the first since 2021.
I’m just going to keep doing what has always worked for me and hopefully I’ll be able to stay on track this time.
Today is another new day and it’s still April, so there’s plenty of time left to make some money. We have a full slate today and there not all that much that I like, so let’s get to it. Here’s my card, with just one same game parlay tonight.
ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team #2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MIL 1st 5 ML
|
MIL full game ML
|
18-
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sides
|
CHI C 1st 5 ML
|
|
106
|
2
|
|
CHI C ML
|
|
114
|
2
|
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
|
-125
|
2
|
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
|
-110
|
2
|
|
ATL ML
|
|
-125
|
2
|
Here’s how I see things mostly shaking out tonight.
CHI C @ NYM
The 18-11 Cubs won late 2-1 last night at the 14-14 Mets. Fortunately, I only had the 1st five,
Starting Pitchers
7:10
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
CHI C
|
Assad - R
|
|
(5/5)
|
(0/5)
|
1.00
|
2.00
|
2.89
|
3.33
|
4.09
|
3.93
|
0.251
|
0.274
|
24.5%
|
8.5%
|
NYM
|
Manaea – L
|
|
(4/5)
|
(1/5)
|
1.44
|
3.33
|
5.09
|
3.47
|
4.62
|
4.45
|
0.296
|
0.355
|
25.2%
|
13.1%
|
Edge – CHI C
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
CHI C
|
8
|
5
|
8
|
6
|
68.3%
|
18
|
0.57
|
21
|
1.22
|
11
|
4.68
|
22
|
25.9%
|
5
|
8.2%
|
5
|
NYM
|
10
|
3
|
7
|
3
|
69.5%
|
17
|
0.42
|
8
|
1.49
|
27
|
2.73
|
6
|
21.9%
|
17
|
10.0%
|
17
|
Edge - NYM
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
CHI C
|
5.07
|
6
|
0.320
|
11
|
103
|
15
|
0.154
|
9
|
9.4%
|
8
|
-0.1
|
14
|
38.2%
|
18
|
8.8%
|
5
|
23.1%
|
15
|
NYM
|
4.43
|
15
|
0.316
|
14
|
104
|
14
|
0.141
|
18
|
8.9%
|
13
|
-0.7
|
20
|
36.6%
|
26
|
7.5%
|
13
|
19.7%
|
5
|
Edge – CHI C, but close
Conclusion:
I’m still not sure which of these teams is actually the better one. The Cubs hit a little better. They average a little over a half a run more per game with a slightly better wOBA and ISO, but their respective wRC+ numbers are almost identical. These two bullpens appear to be fairly close. However, of the two starting pitchers, I’m inclined to give Javier Assad the edge over Sean Manaea. Javier Assad is pitching as well as he ever has. He has started 5 games for the Cubs and all five graded as above average. Assad has given up a total of 6 runs on 18 hits and 9 walks over 27 innings with 26 Ks. In his last outing v the Astros, Assad went toe to toe with the Astros Justin Verlander, giving up just 1 run on 4 hits and a walk over 5.2 innings with 5 Ks. The only real issue is that he usually doesn’t go deep, having gone 6 innings just once this season, but his statistically profile is very good. Lefty Seah Manaea has pitched surprisingly well for the Mets this season with four of his five starts grading as above average/ He has given up 11 runs (9 earned on 21 hits and 14 walks over 24.1 innings with 27 Ks. While his ERA is solid, Manaea’s WHIP is high and his ERA metrics are mostly mediocre. The problem with the WHIP is mostly because of the 14 walks. That’s too many. Manaea can still generate Ks, but the walks are problematic.
Pick – CHI C 1st 5 and full game MLs in side bets
SF @ BOS
The 14-15 Giants had yesterday off as they travel to the 13-12 Red Sox after taking two of three from the Pirate at Oracle over the weekend. The Red Sox also had the day off after taking two of three from the Cubs at Fenway.
Starting Pitchers
7:10
|
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
SF
|
Webb - R
|
|
(5/6)
|
(1/6)
|
1.11
|
2.33
|
4.28
|
2.79
|
3.19
|
3.34
|
0.266
|
0.379
|
17.0%
|
4.6%
|
BOS
|
Criswell - R
|
|
(1/2)
|
(1/2)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Edge – SF
Bullpens
N/A - this is a 1st 5 only bet
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
SF
|
4.00
|
20
|
0.309
|
17
|
99
|
16
|
0.138
|
21
|
8.4%
|
18
|
-0.1
|
14
|
40.8%
|
6
|
6.2%
|
25
|
21.8%
|
21
|
BOS
|
4.79
|
10
|
0.323
|
8
|
104
|
12
|
0.167
|
5
|
8.5%
|
17
|
-1.0
|
22
|
37.4%
|
20
|
8.6%
|
7
|
25.4%
|
26
|
Edge – BOS
Conclusion: The big edge that I seen in this game is the starting pitching matchup. Logan Webbhas started 6 games for the Giants this season, with five of them grading as above average and just 1 )at the Dodgers) grading as below. He has given up 10 runs on 36 hits and 7 walks over 38.2 innings with 26 Ks and a 59.7% GB rate. Webb’s statistical profile is mostly excellent. Webb is on a streak and is now up to 19 consecutive scoreless innings, which is the longest streak of his career, and he’s gone at least seven innings and allowed one or fewer runs in each of his last three outings. By contrast, Cooper Criswell has only started two games for the Red Sox with one grading as above average and one grading as below, after appearing in four others out of the Sox’s pen. He has given up 10 runs on 36 hits and 7 walks over 38.2 innings with 27 Ks. The Red Sox hit better, especially at Fenway and they probably have the better bullpen, but Criswell is a virtual unknown and comparing him to the elite Webb just isn’t fair. For five innings, give me the eklite starting pitcher and that’s logan Webb.
Pick – SF 1st 5 ML in a side bet
TB @ MIL
The 14-16 Rays beat the 17-11 Brewers 1-0 last night, as Ryan Pepiot andd three relievers combined on the three-hit shutout while the Rays withstood a 9th inning comeback attempt.
Starting Pitchers
7:40
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
TB
|
Alexander - L
|
|
(1/2)
|
(1/2)
|
(1.30
|
4.74
|
3.78
|
5.17
|
4.93
|
4.44
|
0.342
|
0.311
|
18.9%
|
6.6%
|
MIL
|
Peralta - R
|
|
(4/5)
|
(1/5)
|
0.99
|
3.18
|
3.89
|
3.04
|
3.06
|
2.83
|
0.261
|
0.315
|
33.3%
|
7.9%
|
Edge – MIL
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
TB
|
7
|
6
|
8
|
8
|
64.4%
|
26
|
0.68
|
30
|
1.58
|
30
|
5.29
|
27
|
17.5%
|
30
|
10.9%
|
27
|
MIL
|
12
|
3
|
10
|
4
|
73.8%
|
9
|
0.47
|
13
|
1.29
|
17
|
3.94
|
15
|
21.0%
|
30
|
9.8%
|
16
|
Edge – MIL big
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
TB
|
3.90
|
22
|
0.301
|
24
|
99
|
16
|
0.121
|
26
|
7.0%
|
28
|
2.0
|
5
|
37.1%
|
23
|
5.9%
|
28
|
24.0%
|
20
|
|
MIL
|
5.07
|
6
|
0.340
|
3
|
116
|
5
|
0.163
|
6
|
9.8%
|
5
|
1.1
|
8
|
40.9%
|
5
|
8.1%
|
10
|
23.2%
|
19
|
|
Edge – MIL
Conclusion: This one looks like a mismatch. The Brwers are the much better hitting team and it’s not close, The Brewers have the better bullpen and that’s not close either. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and that shouldn’t be close either. Tyler Alexander has only started two games this season with one grading as above average and the other grading as below. He has given up 15 runs (13 earned)on 25 hits and 7 walks over 24.2 innings with 20 Ks and his statistical profile is not very good either. . Brewers ace Freddy Peralta has started 5 games for the Brewers this season with four grading as above average and just one grading as below. He has given up a total of 10 runs on 19 hits and 9 walks over 28.1 innings with an impressive 38 Ks. Peralta’s statistical profile is across the board superb with that better than 33% K rate as the highlight. He's posted double-digit whiffs in each of his first four starts. The right-hander was able to stay healthy last season and set career highs in starts (30) and innings (165.2). Peralta was one of the best strikeout pitchers in the league, with his 30.9% rate ranking 4th and his .211 batting average against was also elite. The only blemish was the career high 26 HRs that he surrendered and we could see some positive regression on that front. He comong off a rare poor outing at the Piratem so I’m looking for a strong bounce-back effort at home tonight.
Conclusion: Idon’t give a damn what happened last night. This is the sam Rays team that got sept by the White Sox over the weekend. The Brwers are the better team across the board and Peralta v Alexander looks like a complete mismatch.
Pick – MIL 1st 5 and full game MLs in a couple of side bets
CIN @ SD
The 16-13 Reds won the first game of this series 5-2 over the 14-18 Padres at Petco behind a dominating outing by Nick Lodolo.
Starting Pitchers
9:40
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
CIN
|
Martinez - R
|
|
(0/3)
|
(3/3)
|
1.39
|
5.48
|
3.91
|
3.33
|
4.52
|
4.17
|
0.348
|
0.312
|
16.8%
|
2.0%
|
SD
|
Darvish - R
|
|
(3/5)
|
(2/5)
|
1.27
|
4.18
|
4.58
|
3.79
|
4.29
|
4.34
|
0.307
|
0.339
|
21.8%
|
9.9%
|
Edge - SD
Edge – CIN
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only bet
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
CIN
|
4.97
|
9
|
0.304
|
20
|
87
|
25
|
0.153
|
11
|
10.1%
|
4
|
5.8
|
1
|
39.8%
|
9
|
8.5%
|
8
|
26.8%
|
28
|
SD
|
4.72
|
10
|
0.322
|
9
|
109
|
7
|
0.147
|
14
|
9.1%
|
12
|
0.2
|
11
|
39.4%
|
13
|
7.5%
|
13
|
19.7%
|
5
|
Edge – CIN, but closer than it appears.
Conclusion: It’s tough to really be sure of which team has the better offense in this one. The Reds hold most of the statistical edges. They score slightly more runs per game with a better ISO walk rate, hard-hit rate and barrel rate. However, the Padres have the slightly better wOBA, and most importantly, a 22-point better wRC+, and that’s the one stat that is park-adjusted. That’s a big deal in this matchup because while the Reds play their home games at the bandbox known as “Great American”, while the Padres pay theirs at spacious, pitcher-friendly “Petco”. That skews the offensive stats for these teams. We next turn to the two starting pitchers, and that’s where I think that the Padres should have an edge. Nick Martinez is no Nick Lodolo. He has stated three games for the Reds this season and none of them was very good as he gave up 13 runs on 25 hits and 2 walks over 16 innings with 12 Ks. Thee 33-year-old Martinez mixes five pitches, with his 80 mph change and curve being the best of those offerings. He produced a career-best 23% K rate last season to supplement his elite 53.3% GB rate, but there’s nothing here that going to excite anyone. The only thing that makes this matchup even remotely close is Yu Darvish’s downward spiral and injury history in recent seasons. He has started five games for the Padres and three have graded above average with two grading as beHis WHIP is fine, but his ERA and metrics are mostly mediocre and his K rate is down to a career low. Darvish is no longer the pitcher than he was a few seasons ago, but even today, he should still be better than Nick Martinez. What this comes down to is that I’m fading Martinez.
Pick – SD 1st 5 ML in a side bet
ATL @ SEA
I can’t explain it, but the now 19-8 Braves’ bats went silent hast night in a 2-1 loss to the 16-13 Mariners in Seattle. Go figure?
Starting Pitchers
9:40
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
ATL
|
Lopez - R
|
|
(4/4)
|
(0/4)
|
0.88
|
0.72
|
2.62
|
2.74
|
3.69
|
3.67
|
0.227
|
0.261
|
26.1%
|
7.3%
|
SEA
|
Castillo - R
|
|
(2/6)
|
(3/6)
|
1.3
|
4.15
|
3.32
|
3.24
|
2.95
|
2.98
|
0.337
|
0.293
|
26.2%
|
6.9%
|
Edge – ATL
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
ATL
|
9
|
4
|
8
|
3
|
72.8%
|
13
|
0.44
|
9
|
1.24
|
13
|
3.46
|
8
|
23.0%
|
12
|
7.8%
|
2
|
SEA
|
2
|
3
|
7
|
1
|
79.5%
|
2
|
0.33
|
2
|
1.37
|
20
|
2.47
|
1
|
20.4%
|
23
|
10.7%
|
22
|
Edge - SEA
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
ATL
|
9
|
4
|
8
|
3
|
72.8%
|
13
|
0.44
|
9
|
1.24
|
13
|
3.46
|
8
|
23.0%
|
SEA
|
2
|
3
|
7
|
1
|
79.5%
|
2
|
0.33
|
2
|
1.37
|
20
|
2.47
|
1
|
20.4%
|
Edge – SEA
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
ATL
|
5.73
|
1
|
0.353
|
1
|
123
|
2
|
0.176
|
2
|
8.6%
|
15
|
1.8
|
6
|
45.5%
|
1
|
9.4%
|
2
|
22.3%
|
16
|
SEA
|
3.70
|
25
|
0.295
|
25
|
95
|
21
|
0.137
|
22
|
9.3%
|
9
|
-1.0
|
21
|
41.6%
|
4
|
7.5%
|
13
|
28.2%
|
30
|
Edge – ATL huge
Conclusion: Thee’s not much to add to the stats when it comes to the Braves offense. Although they didn’t get it done last night, the Braves are still the best hitting team in baseball and even on those rare occasions like last night, when they struggle, they seem to almost always bounce back. The Mariners, on the other hand, have struggled to score runs, ranking in the bottom third of the league in most offensive categories, including runs per game, wOBA, wRC+ and ISO. They’ve also struck out more often than any other team. The Braves’ bullpen isn’t bad, but the Mariners pen has been one of the better units in baseball so far and they proved it again last night. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and I’m giving the Braves the edge with veteran righty Reynaldo Lopez over Luis Castillo. Lopez has now started four games for the Braves this season and delivered four quality starts. He has given up a total of just 2 runs on 14 hits and 8 walks over 25 innings with 24 Ks. Lopez was a setup man for three different teams in 2023, splitting time between the White Sox, Angels (trade) and Guardians (waiver claim). The now 30-year-old Lopez, working exclusively out of the bullpen, finished 3-7 with a 1.27 WHIP and 3.27 ERA over 66 innings with an 83/34 K/BB ratio. He notched a career-best 22 holds and 6 saves while increasing his four-seamer velocity to an impressive 98.2 mph average. He relies on that pitch more than ever, throwing the heater almost 60% of the time and it’s worked to the tune of a stellar best 26.1% K rate. I thought that Lopez was probably best suited to a bullpen role, given his career splits, but he is definitely proving me wrong and having an incredible season so far. Castillo has now started six games for the Mariners with two grading as above average, one grading as average and three grading as below. He has given up a total of 17 runs (16 earned) on 34 hits (5 HRs) and 7 walks over 34.2 innings with 42 Ks. Castillo has now delivered three straight quality starts after giving up 4 earned runs in each of his first three outings to open the season. Castillo appears to be trending in the right direction following a rocky start and now sports an outstanding 42/7 K/BB ratio. I wouldn’t be surprised if both of these guys pitch well tonight, but it’s Castillo who has to face the more formidable offense. A los scoring firt 5 would not surprise me a bit, but I expect the Braves offense to bounce back here and that’s how I’m betting it.
Pick – ATL full game ML in a side bet.