For what it’s worth, yesterday was not one of my better evenings. In fairness, I thought that it was a really tough card. Only two of the six games that I was on cashed, while four were losers, but fortunately, one of the two was my one same game parlay. I think that I was damned lucky to have only lost a little. I finished -0.98 units for the day, leaving me +15.70 units for the season.
Fortunately, the one game that I felt completely comfortable playing was the Rays @ Brewers. I used the Brewers 1st 5 and full game as “a same game parlay” and why not? The starting pitching matchup, Tyler Alexander v Freddy Peralta, looked like a complete mismatch and the Brewers were the much better team in every other respect. They jumped on Alexander for three runs in the first two innings and coasted to an easy 8-2 win.
My only other winner was the Padres, who were hosting the Reds at Petco. The Padres staked Yu Darvish to an early 1-0 lead against Nick Martinez in the 3rd and the 37-year-old righty who will turn 38 in August and hasn’t exactly been lights out this season, was very good last night scattering 3 hits over 5 scoreless innings, while The Padres broke through scoring four more runs off Martinez in the bottom of the 9th highlighted by Manny Machado’s base-loaded double for a solid 1st 5 win.
The rest of my card didn’t fare as well. Javier Assad pitched well for the Cubs, but so did Sean Manaea for the Mets, who I may be underestimating. Unfortunately, I had the Cubs 1st 5 and full game MLs in side bets. It was 1-1 after five, so at least I got a push on the 1st 5. And when the Mets got a three-run HR from DJ Stewart in the 6th, it was over. All the Cubs could muster was one 9th inning run in a 4-2 loss.
I also had the Giants 1st 5 ML. I was banking on another strong outing from Logan Webb, who has been very good again this season. The problem, and the reason this game was considered close was that the Red Sox were the much better hitting team with the better bullpen. The only edge the Giants apparently had was in the starting pitching matchup a classic better starting pitcher v better team scenario. Well, the Red Sox nicked up Webb for a run in each of the first four innings and unheralded rookie Cooper Criswell tossed 5 scoreless innings. It was -0 after five and stayed that way for the rest of the game.
Finally, I was on the Brave ML again last night and again they disappointed, losing 3-2. Both the MRINERS’ Luis Castillo and the Braves Reynaldo Lopez pitched well, but Castillo was better last night, tossing 5 shutout innings. What wasn’t very good again was the Braves vaunted offense. Statistically, they are the best hitting team in baseball, but in the first two game of this series, they’ve scored just three total runs. Hell, they usually put that up in one innings. I keep asking myself what’s wrong with the Braves? The I got to thinking. Maybe it’s not about the Braves. Maybe it’s about the Mariners’ pitching and how really good it has been. After all, I’ve been a long time believe that good pitching will shut down good hitting more often than the other way around, so I took a quick look this morning. As a pitching staff, the Mariners rank 1st in WHIP (1.22) and 2nd in ERA (3.00). The starters rank 2nd in WHIP (1.01) and 4th in ERA (3.22), while the bullpen ranks 2nd in WHIP (1.05) and 3rd in ERA (2.56). Those are some damned impressive numbers. Maybe that’s really why the Braves aren’t hitting in this series.
I’m just going to keep doing what has always worked for me and hopefully I’ll be able to stay on track this time.
Today is another new day and we are now into May, so there’s plenty of time left to make money. We have a full slate today and unlike yesterday, there are a hell oof a lot of games that jumped off the page at me, so I spent about an hour narrowing the field to the games that I like most. That doesn’t mean that I’m right, but I feel pretty dmned good about it, so let’s get to it. Here’s my paired card.
ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team #2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
139
|
2
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
ATL ML
|
145
|
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
144
|
2
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
155
|
2
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
149
|
2
|
|
MINN ML
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
135
|
2
|
|
MINN ML
|
ATL ML
|
141
|
2
|
|
MINN ML
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
139
|
2
|
|
MINN ML
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
151
|
2
|
|
MINN ML
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
145
|
2
|
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
141
|
2
|
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
153
|
2
|
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
147
|
2
|
|
ATL ML
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
148
|
|
|
ATL ML
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
160
|
2
|
|
ATL ML
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
153
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
158
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
153
|
2
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
164
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sides
|
CHI C 1st 5 RL
|
|
105
|
2
|
|
LAD ML
|
|
-135
|
2
|
Here’s how I see things shaking out today, but I’m not a damned psychic. I never know for sure. In some case today my breakdowns may not be as detailed as usual. That’s probably because I think that the analysis is pretty obvious and I have no desire to belabor the obvious and waste my time or yours.
MINN @ CHI WS
The 16-13 Twins have taken the first two games of this three-game series 3-2 on Monday and 6-5 last night over the bumbling 6-24 White Sox. The Twins have now won nine in a row, but six of those wins came against these white Sox.
Starting Pitchers
2:10
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
MINN
|
Ober - R
|
|
(4/5)
|
(1/5)
|
1.07
|
4.21
|
3.76
|
3.55
|
4.16
|
3.91
|
0.296
|
0.311
|
24.5%
|
6.9%
|
CHI WS
|
F;exen - R
|
|
(1/4)
|
(3/4)
|
1.34
|
5.11
|
5.16
|
5.43
|
5.48
|
5.41
|
0.331
|
0.358
|
12.4%
|
9.5%
|
Edge – MINN big
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
MINN
|
6
|
4
|
7
|
3
|
82.2%
|
1
|
0.33
|
2
|
1.13
|
8
|
2.62
|
3
|
22.3%
|
14
|
10.0%
|
17
|
CHI WS
|
2
|
8
|
4
|
7
|
69.6%
|
16
|
0.63
|
24
|
1.52
|
29
|
4.40
|
21
|
21.9%
|
17
|
8.3%
|
6
|
Edge – MINN big
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
MINN
|
4.59
|
14
|
0.320
|
11
|
109
|
7
|
0.168
|
3
|
8.2%
|
20
|
1.0
|
9
|
37.7%
|
19
|
7.1%
|
19
|
24.4%
|
8
|
CHI WS
|
2.80
|
30
|
0.267
|
30
|
70
|
30
|
0.107
|
30
|
7.5%
|
26
|
-2.1
|
24
|
33.3%
|
30
|
5.6%
|
30
|
24.6%
|
7
|
Edge – MINN big
Conclusion: This ain’t rocket science. The White Sox are the worst team in baseball in my opinion, worse than the Marlins or the Rockies. The Twins have all the edges. They are the much better hitting team. They have the much better bullpen and Bailey Ober is a way better starting pitcher. I could go on for a full page on how bad Flexen is, but why. Their two statistical profiles say it all. Ober holds every single edge and most them by a wide margin. Give the better team with the better everything.
Pick – MINN 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
ATL @ SEA
The now 19-9 Braves’ bats went silent again last night in a 302 loss after a 2-1 loss on Monday to the 17-13 Mariners in Seattle.
Starting Pitchers
3:40
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
ATL
|
Sale - L
|
|
(4/5)
|
(1/5)
|
0.92
|
3.69
|
3.10
|
3.47
|
3.03
|
3.11
|
0.253
|
0.284
|
26.8%
|
5.7%
|
SEA
|
Hancock - R
|
|
(3/5)
|
(2/5)
|
1.13
|
5.06
|
5.36
|
5.07
|
4.31
|
4.25
|
0.324
|
0.364
|
17.3%
|
4.5%
|
Edge – ATL
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
ATL
|
9
|
4
|
8
|
3
|
72.8%
|
13
|
0.44
|
9
|
1.24
|
13
|
3.46
|
8
|
23.0%
|
12
|
7.8%
|
2
|
SEA
|
2
|
3
|
7
|
1
|
79.5%
|
2
|
0.33
|
2
|
1.37
|
20
|
2.47
|
1
|
20.4%
|
23
|
10.7%
|
22
|
Edge - SEA
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
ATL
|
5.43
|
1
|
0.353
|
1
|
123
|
2
|
0.176
|
2
|
8.6%
|
15
|
1.8
|
6
|
45.5%
|
1
|
9.4%
|
2
|
22.3%
|
16
|
SEA
|
3.65
|
25
|
0.295
|
25
|
95
|
21
|
0.137
|
22
|
9.3%
|
9
|
-1.0
|
21
|
41.6%
|
4
|
7.5%
|
13
|
28.2%
|
30
|
Edge – ATL
Conclusion: Thee’s not much to add to the stats when it comes to the Braves offense. Granted, the Braves haven’t shown much in the way of offense in the first two games of this series, but as I talked about earlier, there be a very good reason for that and it’s the Mariners pitching which has been exceptionally good so far this season. The Braves are still the best hitting team in baseball and even when they struggle, they’re rarely out of it. The Mariners, on the other hand, have struggled to score runs, ranking in the bottom third of the league in most offensive categories, including runs per game, wOBA, wRC+ and ISO. They’ve also struck out more often than any other team. It’s their pitching that’s been bailing them out. The Braves’ bullpen isn’t bad, but the Mariners pen has been one of the better units in baseball so far and they proved it again in this series. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and I’m giving the Braves the edge with veteran lefty Chris Sale over Emerson Hancock.
The Braves took a shot on 35-year old Chris Sale and he’s rewarded them so far with four of his five starts grading as above average. Sale’s WHIP is good and his ERA is solid with ERA metrics are mostly about a half a run lower than his ERA. Sale is striking out more than a batter per inning and he's got a decent walk rate too. Hancock does have three above average starts to two below average ones, but with an ERA of over 5.00 and ERA metrics that are all in that vicinity, I’m inclined to believe that Hancock’s been lucky. With the exception of a slightly lower walk rate, Sale’s statistical profile is across the board much better than Hancok’s. I expect the Brave to take out two games worth of frustration on this kid today.
Pick – ATL 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
PHIL @ LAA
The 20-11 Phils beat the 11-19 Angles last night 7-5 in Anaheim, after dropping the first game of this series 6-3 on Monday.
Starting Pitchers
4:07
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
PHIL
|
Wheeler - R
|
|
(5/6)
|
(1/6)
|
1.08
|
1.93
|
2.35
|
2.43
|
2.79
|
2.84
|
0.224
|
0.248
|
31.1%
|
7.4%
|
LAA
|
Sandoval - L
|
|
(2/6)
|
(4/6)
|
1.78
|
6.33
|
4.20
|
3.71
|
4.10
|
4.26
|
0.369
|
0.327
|
22.0%
|
11.0%
|
Edge – PHIL big
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
PHIL
|
4
|
3
|
8
|
4
|
63.0%
|
28
|
0.64
|
27
|
1.26
|
14
|
5.53
|
28
|
25.6%
|
6
|
10.6%
|
21
|
LAA
|
3
|
2
|
6
|
3
|
62.9%
|
30
|
0.67
|
29
|
1.22
|
11
|
5.55
|
29
|
23.7%
|
11
|
9.5%
|
13
|
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
PHIL
|
4.74
|
12
|
0.330
|
6
|
108
|
9
|
0.163
|
6
|
9.2%
|
11
|
0.8
|
10
|
39.8%
|
9
|
7.0%
|
20
|
22.2%
|
15
|
LAA
|
4.33
|
18
|
0.306
|
18
|
96
|
20
|
0.140
|
20
|
8.0%
|
24
|
-2.2
|
25
|
39.1%
|
15
|
8.3%
|
9
|
24.8%
|
6
|
Edge – PHIL
Conclusion: I may not be the samtest baseball guy here, but I’m no dummy either. The Phils are the better hitting team here. Other than striking out too much, they hold almost every other statistical edge. The Phils weakness is their bullpen. It’s not very good and I find no solace in the fact that the Angels’ pen is just as bad. That alone was enough to heep me off the full game, even though I think that the Phils win. That brings us to true mismatch here, the starting pitching matchup. This is a no brainer. Zack Wheeler is elitge. Five of his six starts have graded as above average with an across the board superb statistical profile. By contrast, Patrick Sandovakl’s statistical profile is lousy. With two above average starts to four below average ones, a very high WHIP and ERA with mediocre metrics. This is one of those obvious picks that Mentioned earlier.\Pick – PHIL 1st 5 ML in a series of parlays
NYY @ BALT
The 19-12 Yankees have now lost the first two games of this series with the 19-10 Orioles, 4-2 last night after a 2-0 blanking in the first game on Monday.
Starting Pitchers
6:35
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
NYY
|
Gil - R
|
|
(3/5)
|
(2/5)
|
1.40
|
4.01
|
2.56
|
3.81
|
4.13
|
4.23
|
0.348
|
0.312
|
32.4%
|
17.60%
|
BALT
|
Burnes = R
|
|
(5/6)
|
(1/6)
|
0.93
|
2.55
|
3.00
|
3.37
|
3.33
|
3.37
|
0.307
|
0.339
|
25.5%
|
5.8%
|
Edge – BALT
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
NYY
|
10
|
5
|
13
|
5
|
73.2%
|
11
|
0.39
|
6
|
1.48
|
26
|
2.70
|
4
|
25.6%
|
6
|
10.4%
|
19
|
BALT
|
7
|
4
|
7
|
7
|
67.6%
|
21
|
0.52
|
17
|
1.11
|
4
|
4.02
|
18
|
24.8%
|
9
|
7.9%
|
3
|
Edge – NYY
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
NYY
|
4.84
|
9
|
0.335
|
5
|
120
|
4
|
0.157
|
8
|
11.4%
|
1
|
-3.4
|
28
|
39.5%
|
11
|
8.0%
|
11
|
20.1%
|
8
|
BALT
|
5.41
|
2
|
0.338
|
4
|
123
|
2
|
0.202
|
1
|
6.8%
|
29
|
5.2
|
2
|
44.6%
|
2
|
9.8%
|
1
|
21.4%
|
10
|
Edge - BALT
Conclusion: In this clash between the two heavyweight in the AL East, the Orioles look like the better huitting team. Their respective wOBA and wRC_ numbers are very close, but the O’s average about half a run more per game than the Yanks with a better ISO, hard-hit and barrel rate. The O’s problem has been their bullpen which has struggled badly this season. The O’s pen just can’t be trusted to hold a lead. By contrast, the Yanks pens has been one of the better units in the league. That brins us to the two starting pitchers and here I seen another mismatch. Corbin Burnes has tepped right into the role of staff ace with five of his six starts grading as above average with a sub 1.00 WHIP, a mid 2s ERA, solid ERA metrics and a stellar 25.5% K rate. By contrast, while Luis Gil has a great K rate, the rest of his statistical profile isn’t all that good. Yes, three of his five starts do grade as above average, but his WHIP is high and his ERA is mediocre, as are most of his ERA metrics. Ir should also be noted that his 17.6% walk rate is through the roof. Burnes is simply the much better pitcher in this matchup. The Poblem is that I have no confidence in the Orioles’ pen, so…
Pick – BALT 1st 5 ML in a series of parlays
CHI C @ NYM
The 18-12 Cubs were beaten 4-2 last night at the 15-14 Mets, after winning late on Monday night 2-1.
Starting Pitchers
7:10
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
CHI C
|
Imanaga - L
|
|
(5/5)
|
(0/5)
|
0.80
|
0.98
|
3.00
|
2.40
|
3.28
|
3.12
|
0.206
|
0.280
|
25.9%
|
2.8%
|
NYM
|
Butto - R
|
|
(2/4)
|
(2/4)
|
1.09
|
2.86
|
4.80
|
4.11
|
4.14
|
4.06
|
0.281
|
0.347
|
27.8%
|
13.3%
|
Edge – CHI C
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
CHI C
|
8
|
5
|
8
|
6
|
68.3%
|
18
|
0.57
|
21
|
1.22
|
11
|
4.68
|
22
|
25.9%
|
5
|
8.2%
|
5
|
NYM
|
10
|
3
|
7
|
3
|
69.5%
|
17
|
0.42
|
8
|
1.49
|
27
|
2.73
|
6
|
21.9%
|
17
|
10.0%
|
17
|
Edge - NYM
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
CHI C
|
4.97
|
7
|
0.320
|
11
|
103
|
15
|
0.154
|
9
|
9.4%
|
8
|
-0.1
|
14
|
38.2%
|
18
|
8.8%
|
5
|
23.1%
|
15
|
NYM
|
4.41
|
17
|
0.316
|
14
|
104
|
14
|
0.141
|
18
|
8.9%
|
13
|
-0.7
|
20
|
36.6%
|
26
|
7.5%
|
13
|
19.7%
|
5
|
Edge – CHI C, but close
Conclusion:
I’m still not sure which of these teams is actually the better one. The Cubs hit a little better. They average a little over a half a run more per game with a slightly better wOBA and ISO, but their respective wRC+ numbers are almost identical. These two bullpens appear to also be fairly close. However, of the two starting pitchers, I’m inclined to give Shota Imanaga a big edge over Jose Butto. Imanaga already has five above average starts to his credit with a single below average one. His WHIP is good. His ERA is solid and his ERA metrics are mostly ever lower than his ERA. with an excellent K rate and a very low walk rate. Butto has started four games with two grading as above average and two grading as below, but with the exception of a slightly higher K rate, his statistical profile is across the board worse than Imanaga’s. I’m inclined to lay the half a run here
Pick – CHI C 1st 5 RL in a side bet
CLEV @ HTN
The 19-10 Guardians got beaten 10-9 last night by the 10-19 Astros in the first game of their series in Houston.
Starting Pitchers
8:10
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
CLEV
|
McKenzie - R
|
|
(2/5)
|
(3/5)
|
1.68
|
4.91
|
4.83
|
5.61
|
6.07
|
5.99
|
0.339
|
0.348
|
17.6%
|
16.7%
|
HOU
|
Verlander - R
|
|
(2/2)
|
(0/2)
|
1.06
|
1.74
|
4.46
|
3.45
|
3.82
|
2.63
|
0.269
|
0.336
|
26.8%
|
1.1%
|
Edge – HOU
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
CLEV
|
9
|
3
|
10
|
5
|
76.4%
|
4
|
0.32
|
1
|
1.06
|
3
|
2.53
|
2
|
26.9%
|
4
|
7.9%
|
4
|
HOU
|
2
|
9
|
2
|
6
|
65.3%
|
24
|
0.62
|
23
|
1.42
|
24
|
4.95
|
24
|
22.3%
|
14
|
10.3%
|
20
|
Edge – CLEV big
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
CLEV
|
5.24
|
4
|
0.314
|
15
|
106
|
10
|
0.143
|
17
|
7.5%
|
25
|
-0.2
|
17
|
34.9%
|
29
|
5.8%
|
29
|
19.3%
|
5
|
HOU
|
4.55
|
16
|
0.330
|
6
|
116
|
5
|
0.150
|
12
|
8.2%
|
20
|
-4.4
|
30
|
40.2%
|
8
|
6.8%
|
21
|
16.4%
|
1
|
Edge – HOU
Conclusion: The Astros got off to a horrible start while the Guardians got off to a fast one. Strangely enough even though the Guardians are averaging about ¾ of a run more per game than the Astros, it’s the Astros who ho;ld most of the statistical edges here including the better wOBA, wRC+, ISO,hard-hit and barrel rates. They also wlk more and strike out lest than the Guardians. The Astros biggest problem has been their bullpen. It’s been awful, while the Guardians pen is one of the best in the league. That brings us to the two starting pitchers. Triston McKeenzie has struggled in his return from Tommy John surgery with just two above average starts to three below average ones.His WHIP and ERA are both high and his ERA metrics are all in the same vicinity. With a pedestrian K rate and a walks that’s almost as high as his K rate. By contrast, Justin Verlander has only started two games ths season, but both graded as above average. He has given up 2 runs on 7 hits and 4 walk over 10.1 innings with 11 Ks. The 41-year-old right-hander hasn’t t looked like a pitcher who spent the first three-plus weeks of the season on the IL with shoulder trouble, averaging 94 mph. Verlander looked ready to step into his usual role at the top of the Astros’ rotation. I just don’t trust the Astros pen enough for a full game bet, but for five innings I’d much rather have today’s Veralder than today’s McKenzie.
Pick – HOU 1st 5 ML
LAD @ ARIZ
The 19-13 Dodgers split their first two games against the 14-17 Diamondbacks losing 4-3 last night after winning 8-4 on Monday.
Starting Pitchers
9:40
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
LAD
|
Yamamoto- R
|
|
(3/6)
|
(2/6)
|
1.07
|
3.54
|
3.55
|
2.66
|
2.62
|
2.65
|
0.292
|
0.303
|
31.9%
|
5,2%
|
ARIZ
|
Montgomery - L
|
|
(2/2)
|
(0/2)
|
0.85
|
2.08
|
3.14
|
3.32
|
3.83
|
4.26
|
0.258
|
0.286
|
14.0%
|
2.0%
|
Edge - LAD
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
LAD
|
5
|
6
|
11
|
3
|
68.2%
|
19
|
0.50
|
16
|
1.15
|
8
|
3.75
|
12
|
19.5%
|
27
|
9.6%
|
14
|
ARIZ
|
3
|
8
|
6
|
6
|
64.8%
|
25
|
0.56
|
20
|
1.19
|
9
|
4.31
|
20
|
22.4%
|
13
|
6.9%
|
1
|
Edge – LAD I can’t believe that I just wrote that again.
Offense
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
LAD
|
5.28
|
3
|
0.349
|
2
|
124
|
1
|
0.168
|
3
|
10.2%
|
3
|
-0.1
|
14
|
44.6%
|
2
|
9.0%
|
4
|
22.0%
|
14
|
ARIZ
|
5.23
|
5
|
0.322
|
9
|
104
|
12
|
0.144
|
16
|
9.6%
|
7
|
-0.2
|
17
|
37.2%
|
21
|
7.2%
|
18
|
19.2%
|
3
|
Edge – LAD
Conclusion: The Dodgers are the better hitting team here. Somehow, the Diamondbacks amost as many runs per game as the Dodgers, but I now suspect that might have something to do with the 32 runs that the Diamondbacks scored in the first three games of the season v the Rockies in the desert , as well as the 17 runs they scored at the Giants and the 14 they scored at the Cards. However, every other offensive stat that I use points clearly to the Dodgers. Amazingly, I now have now discovered a bullpen worse than the Dodgers. Other than a slightly lower K rate and slightly higher walk rate, the Dodger pen unbelievably holds every other statistical edge when compared to the Diamondback’s atrocious pen. I still think that the Dodger pen isn’t very good, but the Dbacks pen is even worse! That brings us to the starting pitching matchup and it’s a good one. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has now started six games for the Dodgers with three grading as above average, one grading as average and two grading as below. He has given up 12 runs (11 earned) on 24 hits and 6 walks over 28 innings with an impressive 37 Ks. Yamato’s WHIP is fine and his ERA is solid, but his ERA metrics are mostly close to a full run lower than his ERA, telling me that Yamamoto has pitched better than his ERA would suggest. I suspct that Yamamoto’s numbers would be even matter if not for that 5 run in 1 inning fiasco in Korea. His 31.9% K rate is elite. Jordan Montgomery finally signed a deal with the Diamondbacks and axed his agent Scott Boras. He started two games for the Dbacks with both grading as above average. In his two starts, he has given up 4 runs (3 earned)on 10 hits and a walk over 13 innings with 7 Ks. Montgomery’s statistical profile looks fine with no real warning signs. Of course, it’s based on just two starts and 13 innings, so how useful can it be? Ny experience tells me that as long as Mongomery stays healthy he should be fine. I think that the Dodgers are better than the Diamondbacks and I expect them to win this game against the division rival that knocked them out of the playoffs last season.
Pick – LAD ML in a side bet