For what it’s worth, yesterday was one of those all too rare days when almost everything went right,especially with my parlay card. I won eight of the nine sides that I used and pushed the ninth. The Yankees, Giants and Royals won both their 1st 5 and full games, the Cubs and the Dodgers both won their full games and the Cubs pushed on their 1st 5.
My four side bets didn’t do as well. The Mets won their 1st 5, but blew a 9-5 lead in the bottom of the 9th and los the full game in the 10th. The Twins and Astros also both lost their 1st 5s.
When the smoke cleared and the Dodgers had polished off the Reds, I was up an amazing +63.79 units for the day, leaving me +0.09 units for the season, That hardly impressive, but considering where I stood 24 hours earlier, it was totally amazing.
Today we have a full slate of games and there are several that I like, as I try to walk the fine line between trying not to give it all back but also not forgetting how I got back on my feet.
I again won’t have much time for write ups today. My mother-in-law was rushed to the hospital Friday night after suffering some sort of a seizure and she’s still there. They still don’t know why it happened, and so far all the tests have come back negative. They kept her there for observation, so we’re off to the hospital again, right after lunch. Here’s my Sunday card.
ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team #2
|
Odds
|
|
NYY ML
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
-108
|
|
NYY ML
|
PHIL ML
|
-108
|
|
NYY ML
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
115
|
|
NYY ML
|
KC ML
|
14
|
|
NYY ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
116
|
|
NYY ML
|
SF ML
|
110
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
131
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
KC ML
|
130
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
131
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
SF ML
|
126
|
|
PHIL ML
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
131
|
|
PHIL ML
|
KC ML
|
130
|
|
PHIL ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
131
|
|
PHIL ML
|
SF ML
|
126
|
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
157
|
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
SF ML
|
152
|
|
|
|
|
Sides
|
NYM 1st 5 ML
|
|
-140
|
|
NYM ML
|
|
-141
|
Here's the very little I have on today’s games, just the stats and a few thughts.
CHI WS @ NYY
The Yanks won 6-1 yesterday after a 4-2 win on Friday.
Starting Pitchers
1:35
|
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
CHI WS
|
Flexen - R
|
(2/7)
|
-5.70
|
1.26
|
4.46
|
4.29
|
4.29
|
4.56
|
4.57
|
0.313
|
0.330
|
17.9%
|
8.3%
|
NYY
|
Rodon - L
|
(5/9)
|
(4/9)
|
1.22
|
3.31
|
4.65
|
4.41
|
4.24
|
3.84
|
0.330
|
0.342
|
23.3%
|
6.7%
|
Edger NYY
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLDs
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
CHI WS
|
4
|
12
|
10
|
9
|
25
|
69.9%
|
19
|
0.57
|
23
|
1.40
|
26
|
4.03
|
17
|
20.7%
|
26
|
11.7%
|
27
|
NYY
|
12
|
5
|
17
|
6
|
22
|
74.9%
|
6
|
0.37
|
2
|
1.13
|
5
|
2.58
|
2
|
21.5%
|
22
|
9.5%
|
13
|
Edge – NYY big
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
NYY
|
4.81
|
6
|
0.336
|
3
|
120
|
2
|
0.165
|
5
|
10.5%
|
2
|
40.8%
|
5
|
8.8%
|
4
|
19.7%
|
3
|
CHI WS
|
2.85
|
30
|
0.274
|
30
|
75
|
30
|
0.118
|
29
|
6.9%
|
28
|
35.3%
|
28
|
5.5%
|
29
|
22.3%
|
14
|
Edge – NYY big
Conclusion: The Yankees are the clearly better team here in every respect. They are the better hitting and the Yanks bullpen has been one of the best in baseball, while the White Sox’s pen ranks and a below average unit in almost every category. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and while I firmly believe that Carlos Rodon is better than Chri Flexen, I don’t think that he has pitched well enough to warrant a 1st 5 bet.
Pick – NYY full game ML in a series of parlays
WASH @ PHIL
The Phils won 4-3 in 10 innings yesterday after winning 4-3 on Friday.
Starting Pitchers
1:35
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
WASH
|
Williams - R
|
(7/8)
|
(1/8)
|
1.06
|
1.94
|
3.31
|
2.84
|
3.91
|
4.14
|
0.246
|
0.292
|
19.8%
|
8.0%
|
PHIL
|
Nola - R
|
(5/9)
|
(4/9)
|
1.09
|
3.10
|
3,61
|
3.57
|
3.31
|
3.55
|
,282
|
0.305
|
23.7%
|
6.5%
|
Edge – PHIL, the stats don’t really support this but…
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLDs
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
WASH
|
9
|
7
|
13
|
5
|
32
|
74.7%
|
7
|
0.43
|
6
|
1.35
|
17
|
3.43
|
10
|
22.4%
|
18
|
9.6%
|
16
|
PHIL
|
7
|
5
|
13
|
6
|
24
|
67.6%
|
23
|
0.54
|
20
|
1.36
|
20
|
4.44
|
23
|
24.5%
|
9
|
9.3%
|
12
|
Edge – WASH slight
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
WASH
|
3.89
|
23
|
0.296
|
24
|
90
|
23
|
0.126
|
25
|
9.3%
|
9
|
36.8%
|
25
|
5.7%
|
27
|
22.0%
|
13
|
PHIL
|
5.21
|
1
|
0.335
|
4
|
116
|
4
|
0.158
|
8
|
10.1%
|
3
|
40.4%
|
9
|
7.2%
|
12
|
22.4%
|
16
|
Edge – PHIL
Conclusion: The Phils are the better team here in almost every respect. They are the much better hitting team averaging well over a full run per game more than the Nats,. The Phils don’t have a good bullpen, so the Nats probably get a small edge there. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and while the stats actually tilt slightly to Trevor Williams, I’m not buying it. Until this season, Williams had been nothing but mediocre. Yes, he’s had one hell of a start, but I don’t think that it lasts. We saw sing of that in his last start when he gave up 3 runs in 5 innings at the White Sox. Williams has never been this good before. Aaron Nola, on the other hand, has been consistent good for a long time now. Teah, he has his blips and if he has one today, I’ll probably lose this, but Nola is better than Williamms and the Phils are a lot better than the Nats.
The Phils appear to be on a mission this season and they are simply better than the Nats.
PHIL 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
NYM @ MIA
The Marlins erased a 9-5 deficit in the bottom of the 9th and won yesterday’s game 10-9 in the 10th after romped to an 8-0 win on Friday
Starting Pitchers
1:40
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
NYM
|
Manaea - L
|
(7/8)
|
(1/8)
|
1.31
|
3.05
|
4.01
|
3.25
|
4.77
|
4.67
|
0.281
|
0.320
|
21.1%
|
11.4%
|
MIA
|
Sanchez - R
|
(0/4)
|
(4/4)
|
1.63
|
5.96
|
4,09
|
4.58
|
4.80
|
4.80
|
0.349
|
0.323
|
12.3%
|
8.5%
|
Edge – NYM
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLDs
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
NYM
|
13
|
7
|
10
|
6
|
29
|
71.7%
|
13
|
0.44
|
9
|
1.24
|
10
|
2.98
|
3
|
28.8%
|
1
|
11.9%
|
28
|
MIA
|
6
|
12
|
7
|
10
|
20
|
67.3%
|
24
|
0.59
|
25
|
1.42
|
29
|
4.69
|
26
|
21.4%
|
25
|
10.0%
|
19
|
Edger – NYM
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
NYM
|
4.27
|
16
|
0.302
|
19
|
99
|
16
|
0.133
|
21
|
8.5%
|
17
|
37.9%
|
20
|
7.4%
|
9
|
19.8%
|
5
|
MIA
|
3.85
|
24
|
0.277
|
29
|
77
|
29
|
0.117
|
30
|
6.3%
|
30
|
37.1%
|
23
|
6.5%
|
20
|
20.9%
|
10
|
Edge – NYM
Conclusion: Damned if I understand what in the hell happened on Fiday and Saturday, but the Mets have all the edges here and these absolutely should have won yesterday. It’s tough to have any faith in the Mets right now, but they should be the better team and they should be able to salvage the final game of this series. Sean Manaea is no privem but compared to Sixto Sanchez, he just moght be.
Pick – NYM 1st 5 and full game in a couple of side bets
OAK @ KC
The Royals won 5-3 last night after winning 6-2 on Friday night.
Starting Pitchers
2:10
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
OAK
|
Sears - L
|
(4/9)
|
(5/9)
|
1.14
|
3.96
|
4.44
|
4.77
|
4.71
|
4.63
|
0.314
|
0.335
|
17.0%
|
6.8%
|
KC
|
Singer - R
|
(5/9)
|
(4/9)
|
1.11
|
2.84
|
3.44
|
3.44
|
3.32
|
3,44
|
0.290
|
0.334
|
25.0%
|
7.7%
|
Edge – KC
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLDs
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
OAK
|
8
|
5
|
10
|
5
|
28
|
70.5%
|
18
|
0.45
|
11
|
1.22
|
8
|
3.49
|
11
|
25.2%
|
6
|
8.6%
|
9
|
KC
|
9
|
7
|
14
|
5
|
27
|
75.1%
|
5
|
0.46
|
13
|
1.39
|
24
|
3.94
|
14
|
18.0%
|
30
|
9.8%
|
18
|
Edge – OAK
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
OAK
|
3.72
|
26
|
0.301
|
21
|
99
|
16
|
0.161
|
6
|
8.8%
|
12
|
38.7%
|
15
|
9.0%
|
2
|
25.7%
|
27
|
KC
|
4.49
|
14
|
0.303
|
18
|
92
|
22
|
0.145
|
16
|
7.5%
|
26
|
40.6%
|
6
|
8.0%
|
6
|
19.2%
|
2
|
Edge – KC
Conclusion: The A’s are better than they were a season ago and so are the Royals. The A’s bullpen has performed better than the Royals pen, but the Royals are the better hitting team and Brady Singer, who is having a fine season, and has been better than J.P. Sear
Pick – KC 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
COL @ SF
The Giants blasted the Rockies 1404 yesterday after ending their surprising winning streak with a 10-5 win Friday night.
Starting Pitchers
4:05
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
COL
|
Hudson - R
|
(3/8)
|
(5/8)
|
1.69
|
6.13
|
5.45
|
5.57
|
5.17
|
5.44
|
0.356
|
0.366
|
12.5%
|
13.6%
|
SF
|
Hicks - R
|
(6/9)
|
(3/9)
|
1.15
|
2.44
|
3.53
|
3.23
|
3.77
|
3.89
|
0.275
|
0.302
|
19.9%
|
8.2%
|
Edge – SF
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLDs
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
SF
|
7
|
8
|
7
|
6
|
22
|
67.3%
|
24
|
0.59
|
25
|
1.38
|
23
|
4.90
|
27
|
24.0%
|
11
|
8.6%
|
9
|
COL
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
3
|
14
|
71.1%
|
16
|
0.53
|
18
|
1.53
|
30
|
4.35
|
21
|
18.1%
|
29
|
12.1%
|
29
|
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
COL
|
4.02
|
21
|
0.305
|
16
|
81
|
28
|
0.134
|
20
|
7.1%
|
27
|
38.7%
|
15
|
6.3%
|
14
|
26.1%
|
28
|
SF
|
3.91
|
22
|
0.299
|
23
|
96
|
20
|
0.128
|
14
|
8.1%
|
21
|
38.5%
|
17
|
5.5%
|
29
|
21.8%
|
11
|
Edge – SF, when you factor in home/road splits
Conclusion: I give the Giants the offensive edge, not because they’re a good hitting team. They’re not, jast night’s rare outburst notwithstanding. However, the Rockies are so much worse away from Coors that it skews all their stats. Look at their wRC+, which is a park adjusted stat. The bullpens are pretty ever, but Jordan Hicks has been better than Dakota Hudosn, who seems to just puit too many men on base. BTW did I mention that the Rockies are really bad on the road? They are so bad away from Coors that I look to fade them on the raod every chance I can.
Pick – SF 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
I’m not expecting to do as well as I did yesterday thise kind of days are rare, but I dike these play and maybe we can get on a roll. We’ll see.
I’ll be back late this afternoon
BOL all!