For what it’s worth, as incredible as it seems, yesterday I had my second straight great day, another one of those all too rare days when damned near everything goes right. I won all seven of the sides that I used on my parlay card and also both of the sides that I played. The Yankees won their full game ML while the Phils, Royals, Giants and Mets all won both their 1st 5 and full games.
When the smoke cleared, I was up +48.69 units for the day, leaving me +48.78 units for the season! Now that’s one hell of a two-day turn-around. The weirdest thing about it is that with my mother-in-law still hospitalized, I had less time than usually have and yet the results have been tremendous.
Today we have a little less than a full slate of games and there are a few that I like, as I again try to walk that fine line between trying not to give it all back but also not forgetting how I got back on my feet.
I again won’t have much time for write ups today. My mother-in-law is still hospitalized after suffering some sort of a seizure on Friday night. They still don’t know why it happened, and so far, all the tests have come back negative. She’s still there for observation and more tests, so we’re off to the hospital again, right after lunch. Here’s my Monday card.
ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team #2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
ATL 1st 5 Gm 2
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
130
|
2
|
|
ATL 1st 5 Gm 2
|
MINN ML
|
130
|
2
|
|
ATL 1st 5 Gm 2
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
116
|
2
|
|
ATL 1st 5 Gm 2
|
HOU ML
|
114
|
2
|
|
ATL 1st 5 Gm 2
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
104
|
2
|
|
ATL 1st 5 Gm 2
|
LAD ML
|
105
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sides
|
STL 1st 5 ML
|
|
-125
|
2
|
Here's the very little I have on tonight’s games, just the stats and a few thoughts.
SD @ ATL (Game #2)
The 24-25 Padres crushed the suddenly struggling 26-16 Braves 9-1 last night, and came back from a 5-2 deficit to win 6-5 in the early game today. They have now won the first three games of this series.
Starting Pitchers
6:20
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
SD
|
Vasquez - R
|
(1/4)
|
(3/4)
|
1.79
|
6.32
|
5.28
|
5.19
|
4.66
|
4.52
|
0.411
|
0.351
|
14.9%
|
5.4%
|
ATL
|
Sale - L
|
(7/8)
|
(18)
|
0.89
|
2.54
|
2.57
|
2.46
|
2.45
|
2.45
|
0.242
|
0.269
|
31.3%
|
4.1%
|
Edge – ATL
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLDs
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
SD
|
8
|
6
|
13
|
5
|
21
|
71.7%
|
11
|
0.47
|
10
|
1.22
|
7
|
3.95
|
14
|
22.8%
|
17
|
8.1%
|
5
|
ATL
|
11
|
7
|
12
|
7
|
21
|
79.4%
|
1
|
0.40
|
3
|
1.23
|
9
|
3.19
|
5
|
22.7%
|
18
|
7.3%
|
1
|
Edge – ATL
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
SD
|
4.65
|
8
|
0.321
|
8
|
107
|
8
|
0.143
|
16
|
8.6%
|
12
|
40.4%
|
8
|
8.2%
|
8
|
19.6%
|
3
|
MINNATL
|
4.64
|
9
|
0.322
|
7
|
117
|
4
|
0.155
|
9
|
8.5%
|
14
|
37.3%
|
22
|
7.0%
|
21
|
23.5%
|
20
|
Edger – ATL, but close
Conclusion: After a really hot start, the Braves bats have inexplicably cooled off. In the first three games of this series the Brave have only scored a totalTh of 7 runs. That’s not the Braves that we’re used to seeing. The full season stats say that the Braves are still the better hitting team, but it’s much closer than is was at the end of April. The Bravea also have the better bullpen and tonight, the better starting pitcher.
Randy Vasquez has struggled with just one of his fiour starts grading as above average. His statistical profile is terrible with nothing positive.
By contrast, Chris Sale looks rejuvenated after joining the Braves and with Spencer Strider out for the season, has become the defacto staff ace. Sale’s statistical profile is excellent with a sub 1.00 WHIP, and mis 2s ERA and ERA metrics, a well below league average wOBA and xWOBA and an eliter 31.3% K rate. Sal’s been elite before and apparently is again, and his velocity remains intact.
It hasn’t seemed so in the first three games of this series, but the Braves should be the better team here and I expect them to avois getting swept tonight.
Pick – ATL 1st 5 and full game MLs
MINN @ WASH
The 24-22 Twins got swept three games to none by the Guardians in Cleveland over the weekend, while the 20-25 Nats were also swept three games to none by the Phils in Philadelphia.
Starting Pitchers
6:45
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
MINN
|
Lopez - R
|
(4/9)
|
(5/9)
|
1.05
|
3.93
|
2.88
|
3.18
|
2.99
|
2.85
|
0.296
|
0.274
|
28.7%
|
4.0%
|
WASH
|
Parker - L
|
(3/6)
|
(3/6)
|
1.13
|
3.09
|
3.82
|
3.46
|
3.55
|
3.86
|
0.280
|
0.313
|
19.5%
|
5.5%
|
Edge – MINN
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLDs
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
MINN
|
9
|
8
|
14
|
8
|
33
|
74.2%
|
6
|
0.48
|
13
|
1.29
|
15
|
4.01
|
16
|
26.1%
|
3
|
9.8%
|
20
|
WASH
|
9
|
9
|
13
|
6
|
32
|
72.9%
|
7
|
0.46
|
9
|
1.37
|
21
|
3.72
|
11
|
21.7%
|
22
|
9.8%
|
20
|
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
MINN
|
4.43
|
13
|
0.306
|
17
|
94
|
22
|
0.160
|
6
|
7.7%
|
24
|
42.0%
|
4
|
9.1%
|
4
|
23.7%
|
22
|
WASH
|
3.91
|
23
|
0.294
|
26
|
87
|
26
|
0.126
|
27
|
9.1%
|
8
|
39.4%
|
13
|
7.8%
|
13
|
22.0%
|
15
|
Edge – MINN
Conclusion: The Twins haven’t played all that well o fare, but neither have the Nats. The Twins are the better hitting team here. They score about a half a run more per game than the Nats with a 12-point better wOBA and a 7-point better wRC+. While the bullpens look pretty evenly matcjed, the Twins should have a big edge in the starting pitching matchup between Pablo Lopez and Mitchell Parker.
Parker’s pitched OK for the Nats so far this eason with three of his six starts grading as above average and three grading as below. His WHIP, ERA and metrics are all solid, but with a lower K rate and slightly higher walk rate than Lopez and his statistical profile looks just as good right now..
Lopez has struggled more than anyone expected with only four of his nine starts grading as above average. His WHIP is very good, but Lopex’s ERA is only mediocre. However, his ERA metrics are all close to a full run lower than that ERA. A fairly high .297 BABIP that’s 64 points higher than his BA against, tells me that Lopez has been victimized by some bad luck. An x wOBA that’s more than 20 point lower than his actual wOBA tells the same story. Lopez still has an excellent K rate and a very low walk rate.
The Twins are better than the Nats. They hit better and despite their comparable statistical profiles, Lopez is probably better than Parker
Pick – MINN 1st 5 and full game ML in a series of parlays
BALT @ STL
The 29-15 Orioles took two of three from the Mariners in Baltimore over the weekend, while the 20-26 Cards took two of three from the Red Sox in St Louis over the weekend.
Starting Pitchers
7:45
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
BALT
|
Kremer—T
|
(3//8)
|
(5/8)
|
1.02
|
3.72
|
5.24
|
4.62
|
3.75
|
3.66
|
0.280
|
0.360
|
25.3%
|
8.1%
|
STL
|
Gray - R
|
(5/7)
|
(2/7)
|
1.06
|
3.05
|
3.36
|
2.80
|
2.45
|
2.58
|
0.289
|
0.295
|
31.9%
|
4.8%
|
Edge – STL
Bullpens
N/A - This is a 1st 5 only bet
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BALT
|
5.02
|
4
|
0.327
|
6
|
114
|
5
|
0.200
|
1
|
6.9%
|
28
|
37.4%
|
21
|
7.0%
|
21
|
21.6%
|
12
|
STL
|
3.80
|
25
|
0.298
|
25
|
89
|
25
|
0.127
|
25
|
9.0%
|
10
|
40.1%
|
9
|
8.1%
|
9
|
23.0%
|
17
|
Edge – BALT
Conclusion: We are again faced with the classic conundrum here. The O’s are the better team, but the Cards have the better starting pitcher. The O’s are the much better hitting team here and it’s not close. They average over a full run more per game with a 29-point better wOBA and a 25-point better wRC+. Hovever, the starting pitching matchup of Dean Kremer facing Sonny Gray looks like a mismatch.
Kremer has struggled with just three of his eight strts grading as above average and five grading as below. His WHIP and ERA are both OK, but his ERA metrics are mostly higher than that ERAwith a lower K rate and a much higher walk rate than Gray.
Gray has pitched mostly very well for the Cards with five of his seven starts grading a above average. His wHIP is comparable to Kremer’s but his ERA and ERA metrics are all considerably better with an elite K rate and a much lower walk rate than Kremer.
The O’s are the better team here, but Gray is the better pitcher and for five innings, I’ll trust Gray and look for the Cards to get a few early runs off Kremer.
Pick -STL 1st 5 ML in a side bet
LAA @ HTN
The 18-29 Angels took two of three from the Rangers in Arlington over the weekend, while the 21-26 Astros took two of three from the Brewers in Houston over the weekend
8:10
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
LAA
|
Detmers - L
|
(4/9)
|
(5/9)
|
1.35
|
5.19
|
3.46
|
3.86
|
3.66
|
3.58
|
0.334
|
0.299
|
26.3%
|
8.5%
|
HOU
|
Valdez - L
|
(4/6)
|
(2/6)
|
1.20
|
2.95
|
3.56
|
3.31
|
3.06
|
3.06
|
0.304
|
0.303
|
21.2%
|
7.5%
|
Edge – HOU
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLDs
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
LAA
|
5
|
7
|
9
|
7
|
22
|
65.2%
|
30
|
0.61
|
30
|
1.33
|
18
|
5.03
|
29
|
23.2%
|
14
|
10.4%
|
23
|
HOU
|
6
|
11
|
8
|
9
|
26
|
72.3%
|
9
|
0.50
|
15
|
1.32
|
17
|
3.97
|
15
|
23.0%
|
15
|
9.6%
|
16
|
Edge – HOU, the lesser of two evils
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
LAA
|
4.32
|
17
|
0.311
|
12
|
99
|
17
|
0.151
|
12
|
7.7%
|
24
|
39.0%
|
14
|
7.6%
|
14
|
23.5%
|
20
|
HOU
|
4.60
|
11
|
0.332
|
4
|
114
|
5
|
0.156
|
8
|
8.2%
|
19
|
38.8%
|
15
|
7.4%
|
15
|
17.6%
|
1
|
Edge – HOU
Conclusion: The Astros have struggled more than we’re used to seeing from them, but they have noe won eight of their last ten and look like they might have turned it around. The Angels have played about as expected with Ohtani now calling Dodger Stadium his home. The Astros are the better hitting team here, averaging about a third of a run more per game than the Angels with a 21-point better wOBA and a 15-point better wRC+. Both teams have lousy bullpens, but the Astros’ pen isn’t quite as bad as the Angels; pen. That brings us to the the two starting pitchers and Framber Valdez should have the edge over Reid detmers.
Detmers has delivered four above average starts in hs 9 outings, but five below average ones. His WHIP is mediocre and his ERA is very high, but his eRA metrics are all considerably lower than Detmer’sERA. A .328 BABIP that’s 80 points higher than his BA against, might explain that discrepany along with a 60.9% strand rate. Detmer’s K rate is fine, but his walk rate’s on the high side
By contrast, Valdez also has four above average satarts to his credit in his 6 outings, but only two below average starts (his first two). His WHIP, ERA and ERA metrics are all lower than Detmer’s. Valdez;s K rate isn’t as good, but hi walk rate is lower and he is also generating an elite 66% K rate.
The Astros are the better team and, after a slow start, they’re finally playing like we expected them to.
Pick – HOU 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
ARIZ @ LAD
The 22-25 Diamondbacks dropped two of three to the Tigers in the desert over the weekend while the 32-17 Dodgers took 3 of four from the Reds in LA over the weekend.
Starting Pitchers
10:10
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
ARIZ
|
Mantiply - L
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
1.33
|
4.67
|
3.82
|
3.82
|
2.58
|
4.11
|
0.300
|
0.313
|
19.2%
|
8.2%
|
LAD
|
Yamamoto - R
|
(5/9)
|
*4/0)
|
1.03
|
3.21
|
3.44
|
3.26
|
3.00
|
3.04
|
0.283
|
0.298
|
27.5%
|
5.2%
|
Edge – LAD
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLDs
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
ARIZ
|
8
|
9
|
10
|
10
|
16
|
66.9%
|
25
|
0.57
|
25
|
1.43
|
29
|
4.60
|
24
|
19.2%
|
28
|
10.2%
|
22
|
LAD
|
10
|
8
|
14
|
6
|
31
|
72.8%
|
8
|
0.40
|
3
|
1.04
|
2
|
2.99
|
3
|
22.7%
|
18
|
7.9%
|
4
|
Edge – LAD
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
ARIZ
|
4.77
|
7
|
0.314
|
10
|
103
|
9
|
0.143
|
16
|
9.2%
|
7
|
37.2%
|
23
|
6.9%
|
23
|
20.1%
|
7
|
LAD
|
5.16
|
2
|
0.340
|
1
|
123
|
1
|
0.175
|
2
|
10.5%
|
1
|
38.2%
|
19
|
7.2%
|
17
|
21.8%
|
13
|
Edge – LAD
Conclusion: This game looks like a complete mismatch. The Dodgers have all the edges. The Dodgers are the much better hitting team averaginh almost half a run more than the Dbsck with a 26-point better wOBA and a 19-point better wRC+. I still don’t think that the Dodger pen is good, but they have performer better lately are are statistically better than the Dbacks’ wretched pen. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been mostly very good for the Dodgers, while Joe Mantiply will get a spot start after having worked exclusively out of the Diamondbacks’ pen.
The Dodgers should be the way better team in every respect.
Pick – LAD 1st 5 and full game ML in a series of parlays