For what it’s worth, I knew that a day yesterday would rear its ugly head and yesterday it did. After two great days, I had a poor one. I used four teams and eight side on my parlay card, the Braves 1st 5 and full game in the evening game, the Twins 1st 5 and full game, and the Astros 1st 5 and full game. The Brave and Dodgers won, but the Twins and Astros lost and on a parlay card that’s not good enough.
I blame myself for the Twins bet. Truth is neither the Twins or Pablo Lopez were playing well. The smartest move would have been to pass on the game, but I was dumb enough to play a game that looked like it could be close. It wasn’t particularly close and the Twins did what they’ve done far too often this season…suck!
As for the Astros, Nolan Schanuel and Logan O’Hoppe both hit three-run HRs and Jo Adell added a solo shot as the Angels jumped on Framber Valdez for 7 runs in the to of the 5th, erasing a 6-1 deficit to power them to a 9-7 win over the Astros. Valdez was tagged for a season-high 10 hits and tied a career high by giving up 8 runs in his five innings.
When the evening ended, I was down -31.86 units for the day, leaving me +16.92 units for the season.
Today we have a full slate of games and there are several that I like. Fortunately, my mother-in-law came home yesterday and is feeling much better. Some things are more important than baseball.
Here’s my Tuesday card. I’m going heavy on the parlays
ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team #2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
159
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
MINN ML
|
159
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
170
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
NYY ML
|
174
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
BALT 1st 5 MM
|
175
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
BALT ML
|
182
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
146
|
1
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
HOU ML
|
146
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
149
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
MINN ML
|
149
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
161
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
NYY ML
|
164
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
BALT 1st 5 MM
|
166
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
BALT ML
|
172
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
138
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
HOU ML
|
137
|
2
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
258
|
2
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
NYY ML
|
161
|
2
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
BALT 1st 5 MM
|
163
|
2
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
BALT ML
|
169
|
2
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
135
|
2
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
HOU ML
|
135
|
2
|
|
MINN ML
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
258
|
2
|
|
MINN ML
|
NYY ML
|
161
|
2
|
|
MINN ML
|
BALT 1st 5 MM
|
163
|
2
|
|
MINN ML
|
BALT ML
|
169
|
2
|
|
MINN ML
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
135
|
2
|
|
MINN ML
|
HOU ML
|
135
|
2
|
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
BALT 1st 5 MM
|
175
|
2
|
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
BALT ML
|
182
|
2
|
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
146
|
2
|
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
HOU ML
|
146
|
2
|
|
NYY ML
|
BALT 1st 5 MM
|
179
|
2
|
|
NYY ML
|
BALT ML
|
-185
|
2
|
|
NYY ML
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
150
|
2
|
|
NYY ML
|
HOU ML
|
149
|
2
|
|
BALT 1st 5 MM
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
151
|
2
|
|
BALT 1st 5 MM
|
HOU ML
|
150
|
2
|
|
BALT ML
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
157
|
2
|
|
BALT ML
|
HOU ML
|
156
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sides
|
SF 1st 5 RL
|
|
100
|
2
|
|
MIL 1st 5 ML
|
|
-135
|
2
|
|
MIL ML
|
|
-137
|
2
|
Here's my thoughts on tonight’s games.
SF @ PITT
The 23-25 Giants had yesterday off after sweeping the Rockies three game to none at Oracle over the weekend. The 23-26 Pirates continue their road trip after dropping three of four to the Cub at Wrigley over the weekend.
Starting Pitchers
6:40
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
SF
|
Webb - R
|
(7/10)
|
(3/10)
|
1.35
|
3.03
|
4.87
|
2.96
|
3.33
|
3.55
|
0.303
|
0.348
|
18.7%
|
6.8%
|
PITT
|
Perez - L
|
(3/9)
|
(6/9)
|
1.50
|
4.86
|
5.47
|
4.59
|
4.25
|
4.28
|
0.364
|
0.366
|
18.2%
|
6.4%
|
Edge – SF
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 bet only
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
PITT
|
3.75
|
28
|
0.292
|
27
|
83
|
27
|
0.127
|
25
|
9.4%
|
5
|
36.9%
|
25
|
6.5%
|
24
|
24.7%
|
25
|
SF
|
4.10
|
20
|
0.309
|
14
|
95
|
21
|
0.133
|
21
|
8.3%
|
17
|
38.3%
|
18
|
7.2%
|
17
|
21.2%
|
11
|
Edge – SF
Conclusion: The Giants would seem to have all the edges in this one. First of all, they’re at home wile the Pirates had to travel from Chicago. Second the Giants are the better hitting team here. Neither of these teams hits particularly well, but the Giants average about a third of a run per game more than the Pirates. with a 17-point better wOBA ana a 12-point better wRC+. Finally the Giants have the much better starting pitcher going tonight.
Logan Webb has started 10 games for the Giants with 7 grading as above average. His WHIP is mediocre, but his ERA and mot of his ERA metrics are solid and Webb’s statistical profile is across the board better than Martin Perez’s.
Perez has twice as many below average starts (6) as above average ones (3) and a lousy statistical profile to go with it. Perez v Webb looks like a mismatch and that;s how I’m betting it.
Pick – SF 1st RL in a side bet
MIL @ MIA
The 16-33 Marlins upset the 27-20 Brewers 3-2 in in 10 innings last night in Miami.
Starting Pitchers
6:40
|
SO
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
MIL
|
Gasser – L
|
(2/2)
|
(0/2)
|
0.82
|
0.82
|
1.77
|
2.60
|
4.14
|
4.21
|
0.204
|
0.214
|
14.3%
|
2.4%
|
MIA
|
Rogers - L
|
(2/9)
|
(6/9)
|
1.76
|
5.79
|
5.10
|
4.36
|
4.22
|
4.41
|
0.336
|
0.332
|
18.4%
|
9.5%
|
Edge – MIL
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLDs
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
MIL
|
17
|
5
|
16
|
5
|
23
|
77.8%
|
2
|
0.44
|
7
|
1.28
|
13
|
3.80
|
12
|
22.6%
|
20
|
8.3%
|
7
|
MIA
|
7
|
12
|
7
|
10
|
20
|
67.8%
|
24
|
0.58
|
26
|
1.41
|
28
|
4.64
|
26
|
21.1%
|
26
|
9.6%
|
16
|
Edge- MIL
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
MIL
|
5.04
|
3
|
0.336
|
3
|
118
|
3
|
0.167
|
4
|
9.3%
|
6
|
35.9%
|
27
|
6.3%
|
27
|
23.3%
|
19
|
MIA
|
3.82
|
25
|
0.284
|
29
|
82
|
28
|
0.122
|
29
|
6.4%
|
30
|
37.0%
|
24
|
6.5%
|
24
|
20.9%
|
10
|
Edge – MIL
Conclusion: The Brtewers would seem to have all the edges in this game. First, they are the much better hitting team, averaging more than a full run pper game more than the Marlins with a 53-point better wOBA and 36-point better wRC+. They also have the much better bullpen pretty much across the board. The Brewers probably even have the better starting pitcher.
Robert Gasser has only started two games so we only have a small sample size, but both graded as above average. He has given up just 1 run on 8 hits and a walk over 11 innings with 6 Ks.
By contrast Trevor Rogers has started 9 games, but 7 of them graded as below average with a very high WHIP, ERA and ERA metrics.
I don’t know what in the hell happened last night, but the Brewers are a lot better than the Marlins in every respect.
Pick – MIL 1st 5 and full game MS in side sbets
TEX @ PHIL
The 24-24 Rangers had the day off and headed off to Philly to face the41-14 Phils, after dropping two of three to the Angels in Arlington. The Phils also had the day off after sweeping the Nats three game to none in Philadelphia.
Starting Pitchers
6:40
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
TEX
|
Gray - R
|
(7/9)
|
(2/9)
|
1.17
|
2.08
|
3.63
|
2.46
|
3.47
|
3.56
|
0.278
|
0.309
|
24.1%
|
6.5%
|
PHIL
|
Suarez - L
|
(8/9)
|
(0/9)
|
0.76
|
1.37
|
2.31
|
2.73
|
2.72
|
2.77
|
0.218
|
0.245
|
26.5%
|
4.6%
|
Edge – PHIL
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLDs
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
TEX
|
11
|
9
|
9
|
7
|
23
|
66.6%
|
28
|
0.59
|
28
|
1.40
|
26
|
5.08
|
30
|
22.9%
|
16
|
11.9%
|
29
|
PHIL
|
8
|
6
|
14
|
7
|
25
|
66.8%
|
27
|
0.53
|
19
|
1.34
|
19
|
4.32
|
22
|
25.0%
|
6
|
8.8%
|
10
|
Edge – PHIL, mostly by default
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
TEX
|
4.58
|
11
|
0.313
|
11
|
103
|
9
|
0.141
|
18
|
8.6%
|
12
|
38.0%
|
20
|
7.1%
|
20
|
20.2%
|
9
|
PHIL
|
5.33
|
1
|
0.331
|
5
|
113
|
7
|
0.155
|
9
|
10.0%
|
3
|
43.0%
|
3
|
9.3%
|
3
|
21.8%
|
13
|
Edge – PHIL
Conclusion: The Phils have been playing out of their minds while the Rangers have mostly struggled. Offensively, these team should be close, but they’re not. The Phils average 3.4 of a run more per game with an 18-point better wOBA and a 10-point better wRC+. The Phils pen isn’t particularly good or reliable, but it is still statistically better than the Rangers pen. That brings us to the to starting pitchers and both Jon Gray and Ranger Suarez have pitched very well this season.
Gray has delivered 7 above average starts in his 9 outings with a solid WHIP, an excellent ERA and solid ERA metrics. He’s also striking out a batter per inning.
Ranger Suarez has been outstanding this seasonwith 8 of his 9 starts grading as above average and the 9th grading as average. As good as Gray’s statistical profile is , Suarez’s is even better across the board.
The Phils are the better team right now and they’re playing really well, while the rangers are struggling.
Pick – PHIL 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
MINN @ WASH
The 24-23 Twins got blown out 12-3 by the the 25-25 Nats in Washington.
Starting Pitchers
6:45
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
MINN
|
Ryan - R
|
(7/9)
|
(2/9)
|
1.02
|
3.57
|
2.79
|
3.13
|
3.00
|
2.96
|
0.289
|
0.269
|
27.4%
|
3.3%
|
WASH
|
Corbin - L
|
(4/9)
|
(5/9)
|
1.74
|
5.59
|
5.80
|
4.14
|
4.40
|
4.84
|
0.391
|
0.375
|
13.2%
|
8.2%
|
Edge – MINN, but closer than it appears
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLDs
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
MINN
|
9
|
8
|
14
|
8
|
33
|
74.2%
|
6
|
0.48
|
13
|
1.29
|
15
|
4.01
|
16
|
26.1%
|
3
|
9.8%
|
20
|
WASH
|
9
|
9
|
13
|
6
|
32
|
72.9%
|
7
|
0.46
|
9
|
1.37
|
21
|
3.72
|
11
|
21.7%
|
22
|
9.8%
|
20
|
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
MINN
|
4.40
|
16
|
0.306
|
17
|
94
|
22
|
0.160
|
6
|
7.7%
|
24
|
42.0%
|
4
|
9.1%
|
4
|
23.7%
|
22
|
WASH
|
4.09
|
21
|
0.294
|
26
|
87
|
26
|
0.126
|
27
|
9.1%
|
8
|
39.4%
|
13
|
7.8%
|
13
|
22.0%
|
15
|
Edge – MINN
Conclusion: This game concerns me because the Twins haven’t played all that well of late and they played like shit last night. The Nats haven’t been much better. However, notwithstanding last night’s performance, the Twins still look like the better hitting team here. They score about a third of a run more per game than the Nats with a 12-point better wOBA and a 7-point better wRC+. While the bullpens look pretty evenly matcjed, the Twins should have an edge in the starting pitching matchup between Joe Ryan and Patrick Corbin.
Ryan has delivered 7 above average starts in his 9 outings His WHIP, ER and ERA metrics are all very good. Ryan is striking out over a batter per innings with a very low walk rate.
Corbin is just one massive contradiction. His statistical profile looks like total crap and that’s what he’s mostly been for quite a while now. Only four of his nine starts have gaded as above average, but he has delivered three straight above average starts in his last three outings. Right niw, he;s ben better than he’s been in several seasons.
The Twins are probably better than the Nats, but I’m not sure how much better. They hit better and until very recently, Joe Ryan has pitched better than Patrick Corbin. This one scares me, but…
Pick – MINN 1st 5 and full game ML in a series of parlays
SEA @ NYY
The 26-22 Mariners beat the 33-16 Yankees 5-4 last night at Yankee Stadium, erasing a 4-1 deficit in the top of the 9th.
Starting Pitchers
7:05
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
SEA
|
Woo - R
|
(2/2)
|
(0/2)
|
0.93
|
2.11
|
2.12
|
3.71
|
3.71
|
3.77
|
0.142
|
0.234
|
22.9%
|
5.7%
|
NYY
|
Schmidt - R
|
(6/9)
|
(3/9)
|
1.13
|
2.49
|
3.73
|
3.45
|
3.52
|
3.39
|
0.301
|
0.309
|
27.0%
|
7.4%
|
Edge- NYY, but very close
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLDs
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
SEA
|
7
|
4
|
11
|
3
|
22
|
71.3%
|
14
|
0.43
|
5
|
1.12
|
4
|
3.48
|
8
|
24.7%
|
7
|
8.3%
|
7
|
NYY
|
12
|
5
|
18
|
6
|
24
|
75.4%
|
3
|
0.36
|
2
|
1.11
|
3
|
2.49
|
1
|
21.5%
|
24
|
9.3%
|
13
|
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
SEA
|
3.79
|
26
|
0.302
|
21
|
100
|
12
|
0.145
|
15
|
8.5%
|
14
|
39.9%
|
10
|
8.0%
|
11
|
28.0%
|
30
|
NYY
|
4.84
|
5
|
0.339
|
2
|
122
|
2
|
0.175
|
2
|
10.3%
|
2
|
44.6%
|
1
|
10.3%
|
1
|
20.1%
|
7
|
Edge – NYY big
Conclusion:
Pick – The big difference between these two teams is that the Yanks are the much better hitting team. They average over a run more per game than the Mariners with a 37-ppoint better wOBA and a 22-point better wRC+. Both team possess elite bullpens and that brings us to the two starting pitchers and both are pitching well.
We still have a very small sample size for Bryan Woo, who has only started two games, but both graded as above average. He has given up just 1 run on 4 hits and 2 walks over 9.2 innings, but the Yanks are a big step up in class from the A’s and Royals.
Clarke Schmidt has also pitched well for the Yanks with 7 of his 9 starts grading as above average. His WHIP is good with an ERA in the mid 2s and solid ERA metrics and an elite K rate.
The Mariners can pitch with anyone, but their offense is no match for the Yanks potent offense.
Pick - NYY 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
BALT @ STL
The 29-16 Orioles were beaten 6-3 last night by Sonny Gray and the 21-26 Cards at Busch Stadium.
Starting Pitchers
7:45
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
BALT
|
Bradish - R
|
(2/3)
|
(1/3)
|
1.32
|
2.63
|
2.32
|
2.42
|
3.44
|
3.38
|
0.303
|
0.251
|
27.9%
|
9.8%
|
STL
|
Lynn - R
|
(3/9)
|
(6/9)
|
1.48
|
4.17
|
4.49
|
4.43
|
4.38
|
4.36
|
0.340
|
0.336
|
21.3%
|
9.9%
|
Edge – BALT
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLDs
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
BALT
|
11
|
6
|
14
|
10
|
39
|
70.7%
|
15
|
0.44
|
7
|
1.14
|
5
|
3.39
|
7
|
23.4%
|
12
|
9.6%
|
STL
|
7
|
10
|
14
|
5
|
33
|
70.5%
|
17
|
0.50
|
15
|
1.26
|
11
|
4.12
|
18
|
24.7%
|
7
|
7.4%
|
Edge – BALT
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BALT
|
4.98
|
4
|
0.327
|
6
|
114
|
5
|
0.200
|
1
|
6.9%
|
28
|
37.4%
|
21
|
7.0%
|
21
|
21.6%
|
12
|
STL
|
3.85
|
23
|
0.298
|
25
|
89
|
25
|
0.127
|
25
|
9.0%
|
10
|
40.1%
|
9
|
8.1%
|
9
|
23.0%
|
17
|
Edge – BALT
Conclusion: The O’s are the much better hitting team here and it’s not close. They average more than a full run more per game than the Cards with a 29-point better wOBA and a 25-point better wRC+. However, the starting pitching matchup of Kyle Bradish facing Lance Lynn looks like a mismatch. This might have been a great matchup a few seasons ago, but at 37 Lynn is in serios decline and looks just about done.
The O’s are the better team here and Bradish is the better pitcher at this stage in their respective careers.
Pick -BALT 1st 5 and full game MLs in a side bet
LAA @ HTN
The 19-29 Angels erased a 6-1 deficit and beat the 21-27 Astros 9-7 last night in Houston.
Starting Pitchers
8:10
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
LAA
|
Canning - R
|
(4/9)
|
(5/9)
|
1.35
|
5.21
|
5.06
|
4.99
|
5.09
|
4.93
|
0.337
|
0.354
|
16.8%
|
8.9%
|
HOU
|
Javier - R
|
(4/6)
|
(2/6)
|
1.24
|
3.23
|
3.95
|
4.29
|
5.17
|
5.10
|
0.298
|
0.317
|
20.2%
|
12.4%
|
Edge – HOU
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLDs
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
LAA
|
5
|
7
|
9
|
7
|
22
|
65.2%
|
30
|
0.61
|
30
|
1.33
|
18
|
5.03
|
29
|
23.2%
|
14
|
10.4%
|
23
|
HOU
|
6
|
11
|
8
|
9
|
26
|
72.3%
|
9
|
0.50
|
15
|
1.32
|
17
|
3.97
|
15
|
23.0%
|
15
|
9.6%
|
16
|
Edge – HOU, the lesser of two evils
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
LAA
|
4.32
|
17
|
0.311
|
12
|
99
|
17
|
0.151
|
12
|
7.7%
|
24
|
39.0%
|
14
|
7.6%
|
14
|
23.5%
|
20
|
HOU
|
4.60
|
11
|
0.332
|
4
|
114
|
5
|
0.156
|
8
|
8.2%
|
19
|
38.8%
|
15
|
7.4%
|
15
|
17.6%
|
1
|
Edge – HOU
Conclusion: The Astros have struggled more than we’re used to seeing from them, but they had won eight of their last ten going into last night and looked like they might have turned it around. The Angels have played about as expected with Ohtani now calling Dodger Stadium his home. The Astros are the better hitting team here, averaging about a third of a run more per game than the Angels with a 21-point better wOBA and a 15-point better wRC+. Both teams have lousy bullpens, but the Astros’ pen isn’t quite as bad as the Angels; pen. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and Cristian Javier should have the edge over Griffin Canning. Javier has the better statistical profile.
The Astros are the better team and, after a slow start, they were finally playing like we expected them to, at least until that appalling meltdown last night. I say they bounce back tonight.
Pick – HOU 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays