For what it’s worth, yesterday turned out to be a fine Easter day. It was a beautiful sunny day and our family brunch was great. I also won a little change to top off the day. I only had two plays, the Blue Jays 1st 5 RL and the Dbacks full game RL. Both cashed easily and I finished +8 units for the day and now sit +15.13 units for the 2024 season.
Justin Turner homered and drove in four runs and Jays’s ace Kevin Gausman, who was on a pitch count after not making his spring training debut until March 25 because of shoulder fatigue, gave up 1 run on 2 hits and struck out 6 in 4.2 innings, as the Jays beat the Rays 9-2 yesterday to earn a split in their four-game series. It was 7-1 after the 5th.
As for the D-backs, Christian Walker hit a 2-run HR and Brandon Pfaadt gave up 1 run on 5 hits over 5 innings while striking out 6, as the D-back beat the Rockies 5-1 on Sunday. The win was their third in the four-game series. My only concern in this one was which Pfaadt we would see. The one who was so bad in the first half last season that he was demoted, or the only that returned from that demotion so much better and dominated n the Dbacks postseason run to the World Series. Fortunately, it was tha latter that we saw yesterday.
We have a full slate today, but again there’s not that much that I like. Here’s the card, just one play that I bet last night.
ML Parlay: ATL ML + CHI C ML (+112 for 2 units)
ATL @ CHI WS
The Braves opened their season by taking two of three from the Phills in Philadelphia. Last season, I was expecting a matchup between the Braves and the Dodgers in the NLCS, but neither team got ther, as both lost o division rivals. The Dodgers got swept by the Diamondbacks and the Braves lost 3-1 to the Phils for the second straight season. They finished 104-58, 14 games ahead of the Phils in the NL East, but teams like the Braves are judged by what they do in October. After winning the 2021 World Series, the Braves won 205 regular season games, but just two in the postseason. The Brave looked poised for a deep run again this season.
The White Sox opened the 2024 season by dropping three straight games at home to the Tigers. I don’t expect that surprised anyone. Last season, they finished 61-101 and they then traded their best pitcher to the Padres this spring. Things don’t look very good on the South Side of Chicago. The White Sox could very well post their third 100-loss season in the last seven, so they finally tore it all down and staarted the rebuild. President Ken Williams and Senior VP and GM Rick Hahn were both fired in late August. Former Farm Director Chris Getz is now the GM and he’ll work alongside Josh Barfield, who was formerly the Director of Player Development for the Diamondbacks. The White Sox also brought in highly regarded pitching mind Brian Bannister as a Senior Advisor and the payroll has been slashed. The White Sox will be awful, but we just might be witnessing seeing the birth of a new era for them. For their long-suffering fans sake, I sure hope so.
Starting Pitchers
2:10
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K%
|
BB%
|
GB%
|
ATL
|
Morton - R
|
|
(16/30)
|
13/30
|
1.43
|
3.64
|
4.64
|
3.87
|
4.27
|
4.44
|
0.318
|
0.330
|
38.8%
|
25.6%
|
11.6%
|
43.3%
|
CHI WS
|
Flexen
|
|
(7/16)
|
(9/16)
|
1.67
|
6.86
|
6.20
|
6.22
|
5.12
|
5.11
|
0.392
|
0.374
|
41.4%
|
15.9%
|
8.2%
|
39.1%
|
Edge – ATL, more by default
The now 40-year-old Charlie Morton fended off Father Time for another year by starting 30 games last season for the Braves. He's started at least that many in every season since 2018, excluding the Covin-shortened 2020 season. He finished 14-12 with 16 of those 30 starts grading as above average and 13 grading as below. He posted a mediocre 1.43 WHIP, his highest since 2012, and 3.64 ERA, over 163.1 innings with a 183/83 K/BB ratio. However, Morton’s ERA metrics were all considerably higher that his ERA which benefited from a 0.77 HR/9 rate and a 77,6% strand rate. his His normally solid control showed signs of age as he posted an 11.6% walk rate, his highest since his rookie season of 2008, while his 25.6% K rate dropped more than 2.5%. On the plus side, Morton's didn't lose any velocity, but it's still fair to be worried about his spike in walks, but the Brave are hoping that Morton can give them one more reasonably productive season before hanging it up. I have my doubts.
Between stints with the Mariners and the Rockies last season, Chris Flexen started 16 games producing an ugly 2-8 record. He posted a really bad 1.67 WHIP and 6.86 ERA over 102.1 innings with a 74/38 K/BB ratio. 7.7 K-BB% across 102.1 innings. His ERA metrics, while all a little lower than that atrocious ERA, are all still lousy. Despite those poor numbers, Flexen somehow earned a spot in the White Sox rotation to begin the season, mostly by default since the White Sox didn’t have a decent option. That ells you everything you need to know about the White Sox starting pitching. They have none.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
HLD
|
RIP
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
ATL
|
38
|
22
|
52
|
26
|
66.7%
|
10
|
100
|
0.47
|
9
|
73.5%
|
7
|
1.25
|
6
|
3.81
|
11
|
CHW
|
24
|
38
|
28
|
29
|
49.1%
|
29
|
71
|
0.61
|
25
|
68.1%
|
27
|
1.43
|
25
|
4.88
|
25
|
Edge – ATL
The Braves’ bullpen is pretty much the same as last season’s unit that posted a 6th ranked 1.25 WHIP, an 11th ranked 3.81 ERA and a 9th ranked 0.47 runs per inning pitched. The Braes did add Aaron Bummer from the White Sox. It’s a solid group that is currently 2-1 with a blown save. This unit has given up 5 runs on 12 hit and 4 walks over 15 innings.
The White Sox bullpen was bad last season, ranking 25th in WHIP (1.43), ERA (5.88) and runs allowed per inning (0.61). It may not be any better this season. To date this bullpen is 0-2 with a blown save. They have given up 3 runs on 4 hits and 5 walks in 12.1 innings. The White Sox are just hoping to develop a few decent relievers that they can trade for prospects at the trade deadline. Prospects like 25-year-old Jordan Leasure and 24-year-old Deivi Garcia could become arms to build a bullpen around.
Offenses
Team
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SB
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
ATL
|
0.359
|
1
|
125
|
1
|
0.225
|
1
|
8.6%
|
18
|
132
|
10
|
11.4
|
5
|
20.6%
|
5
|
CHI WS
|
0.292
|
30
|
83
|
29
|
0.146
|
28
|
6.3%
|
30
|
86
|
25
|
-4.7
|
20
|
23.8%
|
19
|
Edge – ATL
The Braves are essentially returning the same offense as the one that led the league in runs per game (5.75), wOBBA (.359) and wRC+ (125). That 125 wRC+ tied the 1927 Yanks for the best se ever. The Braves also hit 307 homers. Nobody else hit more than 249. This season they are averaging a league leading 8.33 runs per game with a 3rd ranked 4.15 wOBA and 144 wRC+. The concern is that coming off such a great season, regression is always a possibility. The Braves also stayed amazingly healthy and that’s never guaranteed.
The White Sox ranked among the absolute worst offensive teams in the league last season, averaging the 2nd fewest runs per game (3.96). Only the A’s averaged less. They also posted the league’s lowest wOBA (.292) and 2nd lowest wRC+(83). This season’s version is averaging a 28th ranked 2.67 runs per game with a 27th ranked.258 wOBA and a and a 24th ranked 62 wRC+.
Conclusion: The Braves should win this game. While I have no confidence in Charlie Morton, compared to Chris Flexen he looks pretty good. The Brave should have the better pen and the way better offense. The Braves have all the edges.
Pick – ATL in a ML parlay with the Cubs
COL @ CHI C
The Rockies opened the season by dropping three of four to the Diamondbacks in Arizona over the weekend.
The Cubs opened the season by dropping two of three to thethe defending champion Rangers in Texas. Last season, the Cubs finished 83-79, 9 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central.
Starting Pitchers
2:20
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K%
|
BB%
|
GB%
|
COL
|
Hudson – R
|
|
(4/12)
|
(8/12)
|
1.50
|
4.98
|
6.00
|
5.06
|
5.11
|
5.36
|
0.356
|
0.369
|
45.4%
|
12.7%
|
9.6%
|
51.5%
|
CHI C
|
Imanaga – L
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Edge – CHI C totally by default
Dakota Hudson appeared poised to be a key part of the Cards starting rotation or years to come after posted a 3.17 ERA in 67 starts from 2018-2020, but he missed most of 2021 while recovering from Tommy John surgery and struggled mightily over the past two seasons. In 2023, Hudson started 12 games and finished 6-3, but with twice as many of his starts (8) grading as below averaged than above (4). He posted a lousy 1.50 WHIP and 4.48 ERA over 81.1 innings with a poor 45/34 K/BB ratio. Hudson;s ERA metrics were all even higher than his dreadful ERA, telling me that he was lucky. It could have been worse. Between the 88 hits and 34 walks that he gave up, that comes to 122 baserunners, so Hunson was exceeding ly lucy that only 46 of them scored. Not surprisingly, Hudson was non-tendered by the Cards in November before latching on with the Rockies, who are desperate for starting pitching. Desperate enough to take a chance on the 29-year-old Hudson. It's obviously not a favorable landing spot given the Coors Field factor, but He did generate a 51.5% GB rate last season and has a career 55.1% rate. Other than the GBs, there not a lot to like about Hudson.
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Shota Imanaga is a 30-year-old lefty who has pitched with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars of the Nippon Professional Baseball since 2016. Last season, Imanaga posted a 1.05 WHIP and 2.80 ERA, while striking out 174 over 148 innings. He throws a four-seam that's been reported between 92- and 94-mph, a slider, curveball, and split-finger changeup. The key to his success is fastball command and the effectiveness of his split-finger offering. Imanaga pitched for Team Japan in the 2023 World Baseball Classic and was deemed to possess the best Stuff+ by the Athletics’ Eno Sarris. The main concern is he carried a high HR rate, relative to some of the other pitchers coming to MLB from Japan. He'll be working in bigger parks now, but will also be facing better hitters. How well he does will depend on his ability to keep the ball in the yard. He's expected to fill a mid-rotation role but shouldn't be expected to make more than 25 or 26 starts as he transitions to his new environment. He an total unknown.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
HLD
|
RIP
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
COL
|
31
|
33
|
32
|
33
|
49.2%
|
28
|
57
|
0.66
|
30
|
66.6%
|
30
|
1.56
|
30
|
5.41
|
30
|
CHI C
|
27
|
31
|
35
|
22
|
61.4%
|
18
|
81
|
0.46
|
8
|
74.5%
|
6
|
1.29
|
15
|
3.85
|
13
|
Edge – CHI C by default.
Neither of these teams had a good bullpen last season, but the Rockies were much worse.
The Rockies had the worst bullpen in baseball last season, ranking dead last in WHIP (1.56) ERA (5.41) and runs allowed per inning (0.66). This season. this unit has given up 8 runs on 15 hits over 16 innings with 12 Ks. That’s hardly impressive.
The Cubs bullpen was nothing special last season, ranking 15th with a 1.29 WHIP, 13th with a 3.85 ERA and 8th with a 0.46 runs allowed per inning. This season the Cubs pen has struggled with a loss and two blown saves. They have given up 9 runs on 15 hits and 8 walks over 14.1 innings with 15 Ks.
Offenses
Team
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SB
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
COL
|
0.310
|
20
|
78
|
30
|
0.156
|
20
|
7.4%
|
26
|
76
|
28
|
-19.9
|
30
|
25.5%
|
28
|
CHI C
|
0.326
|
8
|
104
|
12
|
0.167
|
14
|
9.2%
|
7
|
140
|
8
|
14.8
|
1
|
22.4%
|
13
|
Edge – CHI C
The Rockies didn’t have a good offense last season. Even with all of the advantages that Coors Field brings, they posted just a 21st ranked 3.00 runs per game, a 20th ranked .310 wOBA and a league-worst 78 wRC+. They didn’t look any better in the first three games putting up a total of just 5 runs on 19 hits and 3 walks, with a 22nd ranked .288 wOBA and a 26tg ranked 56 wRC+.
The Cubs had a slightly above average offense last season, averaging a 6th ranked 5.06 runs per game while posting a 17th ranked .313 wOBA and 20th ranked 86 wRC+. This is a very similar team to the one that the Cubs put out there last season. Jeimer Candelario is gone, but he only played a partial season with the Cubs. Cody Bellinger was the leader of the offense with a .370 wOBA and a 134 wRC+ in wghat was a huge bounce back season for him. He also hit 26 HRs. The Cubs actually had six players hit at least 20 homers, with Bellinger and Christopher Morel tied at the top with 26, and Eight of the top nine players in plate appearances posted a wRC+ of 102 or higher.
Conclusion: I like the Cubs to win this game. While I have no idea what I’ll get from Imanaga. from everything that I’ve read, if he can keep the ball in the park, he’ll be alright and he couldn’t have picked a better team to face in his MLB debut that the Rockies, and on the road where the Rockies are historically awful. I know what I expect from Dakota Hudson and that’s not much. Hudson has always put too many men on base and it usually catches up with him. While the Cubs pen was nothing to write home about last season, the Rockies pen was worse, much worse and they haven’t been very good this season either. The same goes for these two offenses. Cubs OK – Rockies really bad.
Pick – CHI C in a ML parlay with the Braves