I don't see much talk about the Derby on this forum. Maybe not a lot of horse bettors here. To me, this is about as close to a Superbowl as you can get. Next to the NFL, thoroughbred horse racing is my favorite sport to capp and bet. Here's my take. My experience betting the Derby is to look for the late runners, the closers, without exceptional speed and setting the fractions, front runners don't often get the job done.
They may see some rain on raceday, that changes the game big time. Some of these colts have never raced or trained on a wet or sloppy track. If so, Look for the mudders, the ones that have raced, or have it in their pedigree.
Do you remember when Country House won the 2019 Derby on a sloppy track after the disqualification of Maximum Security? (Which I had keyed on top) I had him keyed in my tri at 55-1. His previous race to the Kentucky Derby was the Florida Derby where he was the only horse gaining ground to finish second on a sloppy track to the favorite and I'll be damed if I can remember his name, but that colt was the choice going into the Derby and was scratched.
1. Catching Freedom ML 8-1
A winner of 3 of 5 starts including a last to first rally in a moderately-paced Louisianna Derby. Can rally from anywhere in the field.
2. Sierra Leone ML 3-1
Pound for pound this colt is worth every penny of the 2.3 million paid for as a yearling. His only loss came last December in the Remsen Stakes. A supurb late runner. If he works out the right trip, he can easily win this race.
3. Fierceness ML 5-2
This Pletcher trained colt is the fastest of this bunch on paper. If he races back as he did in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and the Florida Derby, he will be the horse to beat. My concern is that he has to have it his way. He has lost twice at short odds. If the race sets up to his liking than he will be right there at the wire.